Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Sunday, January 4, 2026
A pair of AFC West foes looking to earn a victory meet in the Silver State as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Las Vegas Raiders in the regular season finale for both teams Sunday afternoon and we have you covered with our Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction. Kansas City fell 20-13 at home to Denver Christmas night in their previous contest, covering the line as a 13.5-point underdog. Las Vegas was clobbered 34-10 at home by the Giants last Sunday, failing to cover the line as a three-point underdog, in their previous game. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Chiefs own a 74-54-2 and have taken the last three meetings, including a 31-0 home win in the most recent clash October 19, 2025. Read more about this Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction! Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our NFL Picks!
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Kansas City Closing Out Lost Season
Kansas City suffered their fifth straight defeat as they were downed by the Broncos at home on Christmas night. The Chiefs dropped to 6-10 overall and stand third in the AFC West. They have been eliminated from playoff contention. Against Denver, Kansas City hung tough only to fall short in the contest. The Chiefs trailed 3-0 after the opening quarter, led 7-6 at the half, trailed 13-10 after three quarters and were tied early in the fourth quarter only to give up the winning score with 1:45 remaining. They drove to the Denver 21-yard line on their final drive before turning the ball over on downs. Kansas City was outgained 303-139 in total offense, gave up 22 first downs while picking up 10, lost time of possession by a 39:28 to 20:32 margin and forced the lone turnover in the contest.
The Chiefs enter this game 13th in the league in passing offense as they average 222.2 yards per game this season. Kansas City is 23rd in the league in rushing offense as they grind out 108 yards per contest on the ground. The Chiefs are 20th in scoring offense as they put up an average of 21.9 points per game while they stand 6th in scoring defense as they allow 19.6 points per contest. Patrick Mahomes is the signal caller for the Chiefs: he is 315 of 502 for 3,587 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the year. He is second on the team with 422 rushing yards plus five scores. Chris Oladokun (24 of 38, 177 yards, TD, 18 rush yards) and Gardner Minshew (six of 13, 37 yards, INT, two rush yards) have also seen action. Kareem Hunt is leading the team on the ground with 158 carries for 597 yards and eight scores on the season. Brashard Smith (32 carries, 95 yards) and Isiah Pacheco (118 carries, 462 yards, TD) are also in the mix. Travis Kelce is the team’s leading pass catcher with 73 receptions for 839 yards and five scores on the year. Xavier Worthy (42 catches, 532 yards, TD), Hollywood Brown (46 grabs, 523 yards, five TD), JuJu Smith-Schuster (31 catches, 332 yards, three TD), Smith (23 grabs, 170 yards, TD), Rashee Rice (53 receptions, 571 yards, five TD) and Tyquan Thornton (19 catches, 438 yards, three TD) are other options. Harrison Butker is 31 of 35 on extra point attempts and 29 of 34 on field goal attempts with a long of 59 this season.
Key Injury Report for Chiefs:
- Tight end Jake Briningstool (hamstring) is out.
- Guard Trey Smith (ankle) is out.
- Quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) is out.
- Quarterback Gardner Minshew (knee) is out.
- Wide receiver Xavier Worthy (illness) is doubtful.
- Tackle Jaylon Moore (knee) is questionable.
- Defensive end George Karlaftis (rest) is questionable.
- Running back Isiah Pacheco (rest) is questionable.
- Defensive tackle Jerry Tillery (personal) is questionable.
Raiders In Running for #1 Pick
Las Vegas dropped their 10th straight game as they were hammered by the Giants in a battle of teams battling for the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Raiders fell to 2-14 on the year and own the league’s worst record. They have been eliminated from playoff contention. Against the Giants, Las Vegas gave up a touchdown on the final play of the first quarter to break a scoreless tie and never got even again. The Raiders trailed 17-3 at the half and 27-10 after three quarters en route to the loss. Las Vegas was outgained 343-231 in total offense, gave up 22 first downs while allowing 14, lost time of possession by a 30:48 to 29:12 margin and committed the game’s two turnovers in the loss.
For the season, the Raiders are 27th in the league in passing offense with 172.8 yards per contest while they are 32nd in rushing offense by averaging 74.9 yards per contest. Las Vegas is 32nd in scoring offense as they average 14.2 points per contest while they are 25th in scoring defense as they allow 26.3 points per game. Geno Smith has completed 302 of 448 passes for 3,025 yards with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He has been sacked 55 times while ranking second on the team with 109 rushing yards. Kenny Pickett (27 of 41, 185 yards, TD, INT, 13 rush yards) is the backup. Ashton Jeanty leads the ground game with 240 carries for 888 yards and five scores on the season. Zamir White (11 carries, 27 yards) and Raheem Mostert (22 carries, 104 yards) are also in the mix. Tight end Brock Bowers leads the team with 64 receptions for 680 yards plus seven scores this season. Tre Tucker (55 grabs, 666 yards, five TD), Tyler Lockett (31 receptions, 286 yards, TD), Jeanty (52 catches, 339 yards, five TD) and Michael Mayer (32 receptions, 281 yards, TD) are other valuable targets. Daniel Carlson has hit 21 of 22 extra point attempts and 18 of 23 field goal attempts with a long of 54 this year.
Key Injuries for Raiders:
- TBD
Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Spread Pick for Chiefs vs. Raiders
- Chiefs -5 (4 units)
This game isn’t for the faint of heart when it comes to expecting quality football. Kansas City is playing their third-string QB and have several key contributors missing in action. Fortunately, they get a crack at a Raiders team that has dropped 10 straight and was just walloped by a fellow two-win team in the Giants at home. Smith hasn’t practiced this week so it could be a battle of the backups here. The Raiders have been brutal all season and there is plenty of talk that Pete Carroll could be one and done in Las Vegas. Kansas City has been awful in the home stretch but they should get the win over a hapless Raiders squad.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs vs. Raiders
- Under 36.5 (4 units)
Kansas City enters this game having stayed under the number in 12 of their 16 contests. The Chiefs have fallen under the number in 10 of their last 11 contests and have been held to 13 points or less in each of their last four contests. Las Vegas has seen the under go 8-8 in their 16 games on the season. The Raiders have scored 20 points or less in 10 of their last 12 games. They haven’t scored more than 17 points in seven of their last eight contests. Three of the last four meetings have fallen short of the number. With a pair of backup quarterbacks and teams playing for nothing, this game falls short of the total.
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