Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 5, 2025
In this Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction, the Chiefs and Chargers travel to Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Friday night in the NFL’s second straight Friday night week one matchup in South America. The Chiefs went 15-2 in 2024 and reached the Super Bowl for the third straight season before falling to the Eagles. The Chargers, now in their second season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, will look to build on last season’s 11-6 record that earned the team a playoff spot. The opening kick is scheduled for 8:00 pm EST at Corinthians Arena. If you need quality winners, this is the ultimate site for NFL Picks.
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Kansas City hoping for better finish
The Kansas City Chiefs are back and raring to go following another successful campaign in 2024. The season wasn’t a complete success, however, based on the Chiefs’ lofty standards. The Chiefs finished 15-2 on the season and rolled through the AFC playoffs and into the Super Bowl, hoping to become the first team in league history to win three straight Super Bowls. Instead, the Chiefs were trounced by the Philadelphia Eagles 44-20. They head into 2025 looking to erase the feeling after a disappointing finish.
"I think it's just us having fun again," quarterback Patrick Mahomes said when asked what the key to success will be this season. "It's always been fun playing on the Kansas City Chiefs; that's what makes it special. I feel like last year, I don't want to say it was pressure, but guys wanted to go out there and win every single week, not for the fun of the game, but just because we're supposed to. Let's go out there and have fun. The wins will come if we play the way we know we can play.
Mahomes will have plenty of help this season with a revamped offensive line and what the team hopes will be a full, healthy season from running back Isiah Pacheco. The receiving group is still a question mark, especially after it was announced that returning receiver Rashee Rice will be suspended for the first six games due to off-the-field issues. Xavier Woods played better toward the end of his rookie season and Hollywood Brown returns healthy. Long-time All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is 36 and his number continues to dwindle. The Chiefs will need Mahomes to carry the load once again to get this offense moving.
The Chiefs will once again need to lean on their defense. The Chiefs' defense once again limited the opposition’s production last season, but did allow three more points per game than they did in 2023. Kansas City still will have plenty of production from their defensive front, led by multi-time Pro Bowler Chris Jones. The secondary could be vulnerable with the loss of safety Justin Reid to New Orleans in free agency.
Last season, the Chiefs finished 12th in the NFL in points per game. They were next-to-last in rushing the football and just 15th through the air, even with Mahomes leading the way. The team was 10th in the NFL in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns and was just 18th in sacks allowed. That last number is concerning, given the value of Mahomes to this team. Defensively, the Chiefs were sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game. They were sixth against the run and 19th against the pass. The Chiefs finished 13th in sacks per game and 11th in red zone defense. The team was able to survive a rather pedestrian mark in turnover margin, finishing 14th in that category.
Key Injuries: WR Hollywood Brown and WR Jalen Royals are questionable. S Nazeeh Johnson, LB Brandon George, and OT Ethan Driskell are out. WR Rashee Rice is also out due to a suspension.
Chargers hoping to end skid vs. Chiefs
Things worked even better than predicted in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season back in the NFL with the Chargers in 2024. Harbaugh, a season after winning the CFB National Title with Michigan, changed the culture in Los Angeles, leading his team to 11 wins and a berth in the AFC playoffs. This season, the expectations are even higher for Harbaugh’s Chargers.
"Yeah, that's a great question," says Harbaugh when asked how the Chargers can improve next season. "Just attacking anything and everything to get better. There's only one team in the NFL that's happy, that's the Philadelphia Eagles."
"Every other team, we share that disappointment," Harbaugh continues to say. "Probably more disappointed than the Chiefs because they got farther when they got to the Super Bowl. There's some teams are probably more disappointed than we are because they didn't get to the playoffs"
The Chargers’ fortunes likely begin and end with consistent play from quarterback Justin Herbert. After a stellar regular season, Harbaugh imploded in the wildcard round against the Texans in Houston, throwing four interceptions in a blowout loss. Herbert is still an elite quarterback and should have the benefit of an improved offensive line this season, with an offensive line anchored by second-year right tackle Joe Alt, along with young right guard Makhi Becton. The Chargers also will have a new running back duo in rookie Omarion Hampton, paired with veteran Najee Harris, from Pittsburgh. The Chargers' receiving group is led by Ladd McConkey, but they’ll need more production out of a talented but underachieving receiver, Quentin Johnston.
Defensively, the Chargers had one of the best units in the NFL in 2024 under Harbaugh. They still have Khalil Mack on the edge to disrupt opposing passing games. The Chargers have an up-and-coming linebacking group, led by 2nd year linebacker Daiyan Henley. Henley is the team’s premier coverage linebacker. Denzel Perryman provides elite run-stopping capabilities. Safety Derwin James is elite, leading one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
Last season, the Chargers finished 13th in the league in points per game. They were just 27th in rushing the ball, despite Harbaugh’s insistence on pounding the football. They finished 19th in passing in the league. The Chargers were just 22nd in the NFL in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. They were 19th in sacks allowed last season. Defensively, the team finished second in the NFL in points allowed per game. They were 26th against the run, but an impressive 7th against the pass. The Chargers were 7th in the league in sacks last season. The defense was stout in the red zone, finishing second in red zone defense.
Key Injuries: RB Najee Harris and WR Quentin Johnston are questionable. CB Eric Rogers, CB Deane Leonard, and LS Josh Harris are out.
Chargers +3.5 (5 units)
The Chiefs are justifiably the favorite to win the AFC West this season and likely represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the fourth straight season. A deeper look at last season, however, reveals a team that lived way too close on the edge week after week. The Chiefs were 11-0 in one-score games last season. Remember that explosive offense of years past? It has been a long time since those days. The Chiefs finished dead last in the NFL in explosive plays last season. They were last in throws of 15 or more yards down the field, and they threw behind the line of scrimmage more than any team in the league. Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger, Xavier Worthy was and is not the second coming of Tyreek Hill, and Rashee Rice is suspended. This will play right into the hands of a Chargers’ defense built to slow down the opposition. The Chargers were second in the league in points allowed last season and second in red zone defense. James can contain Kelce, especially at this stage of his career. On the other side of the ball, Herbert just needs to take care of the football. He should be able to do so against a Chiefs’ team that was just 14th in turnover margin last season. The Chargers should find more running lanes with an improved backfield and, despite seven straight losses to the Chiefs, are coming off a season in which they lost their two games to the Chiefs by a combined nine points. This is their time.
Take the Chargers +3.5
Under 44.5 (4 units)
These two teams failed to reach a combined 40 points in either meeting last season. They were both middle of the pack in scoring last year, with the Chiefs 12th and the Chargers 13th. The two teams also finished in the top six in the league in points allowed last year. Both teams have some concerns about the offensive line at the outset as well. Lastly, don’t discount the Chargers’ ability to contain teams in the red zone. They’ll force the Chiefs into field goals rather than touchdowns more often than not. Both teams, heading into the season, don’t seem loaded with explosive players either. This game will likely feature long, plodding drives that result in field goals rather than touchdowns.
Take the under.
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