Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 21, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) vs. New York Giants (0-2)
Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season brings Sunday Night Football from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, where the New York Giants host the Kansas City Chiefs with the kick-off at 8:20 PM ET, so we have prepared the Chiefs vs. Giants prediction to get you covered.
The Chiefs meet the Giants for the first time since 2021, when Kansas City outlasted New York 20-17 as a 10.5-point home fave. The last time they met at MetLife Stadium, the Giants stunned the Chiefs 12-9 as 10-point underdogs on November 19, 2017.
The Giants are 5.5-point home dogs this time around, while the total sits at 44.5 points. Read more about this Chiefs vs. Giants prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 3.
The Chiefs are in an unusual situation
For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Kansas City Chiefs (0-2; 0-2 ATS; 1-1 O/U) started the season with a couple of losses. After a 27-21 defeat against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NFL Sao Paulo Game, the Chiefs lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 20-17 in Week 2.
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After a shaky defensive performance in their season opener, the Chiefs improved last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. Kansas City outgained Philadelphia 294-216 in total yards. However, Patrick Mahomes completed just 16 of his 29 passing attempts, throwing for 187 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, while Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for 53 yards on 18 carries.
Mahomes led the Chiefs’ ground game in Week 2. He carried the pigskin seven times for 66 yards and a touchdown. Against the Chargers, Mahomes had six carries for 57 yards and a touchdown, Pacheco posted five totes for 25 yards, and Hunt rushed five times for 16 yards.
“Yeah, we can do a better job there," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said about KC’s ground game. "We'll get that thing going better."
CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) and DE Mike Danna (quad) exited the Eagles game in the first quarter and didn’t return. They didn’t practice on Wednesday and are questionable to play against the Giants. WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) didn’t play last Sunday, and he should be ready to go in Week 3.
The Giants are coming off a heartbreaking loss
The New York Giants (0-2; 1-1 ATS; 1-1 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with a 21-6 defeat at the Washington Commanders. The Giants racked up 231 total yards and gave up 432 in return. They went 4-for-16 on third down, and Russell Wilson completed just 17 of his 37 passing attempts, throwing for 168 yards in his Giants debut.
The Giants visited the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2, suffering a tough 40-37 loss in overtime. It was a wild game, and we saw three touchdowns and a field goal in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants outgained the Cowboys 506-478 in total yards, and the teams combined for a staggering 26 penalties.
Wilson went 30-of-41 for 450 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception last Sunday. Malik Nabers had nine receptions for 167 yards and two touchdowns, while Wan’Dale Robinson caught eight of his 10 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Cam Skattebo rushed 11 times for 45 yards and a TD.
“That was a tough one,” Giants coach Brian Daboll said. “Battled back and forth, and the guys left it all out on the field. Tough result. We made some good plays. They just made one more play than we did.”
LB Darius Muasau suffered a concussion in Week 2. He’ll probably miss the upcoming Sunday Night Football. LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (calf) and DL Chauncey Golston (ankle) both missed Wednesday’s practice and are questionable to play against Kansas City.
Chiefs vs. Giants Pick
Spread Pick for Chiefs vs. Giants
- Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (5 units)
The Giants’ pass rush is solid, but the rest of their defense doesn’t look good. New York has allowed the most rushing yards through the first two weeks of the season (177.5 per game) and ranks 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (277.5).
I expect the Chiefs to finally get things going on the ground against a poor rushing defense. Their defense is good enough to deal with Russell Wilson and the Giants’ offensive line, so I’m backing Kansas City to win and cover.
The betting trends won’t help a lot. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and 2-6 ATS in their previous eight road contests, while the Giants are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their previous seven showings at home.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs vs. Giants
- Under 44.5 (5 units)
The total seems like a tricky wager, mostly because of the Giants’ defense. As I said, the Chiefs will find a way to exploit New York’s flaws on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas City could easily hit a 30-point mark in this game.
On the other side, the Giants will struggle to move the chains against the Chiefs. The Giants dropped 37 points on the Cowboys last week, but Kansas City is a much better defensive team than Dallas. I expect the Chiefs’ defense to dominate, so give me the under.
