Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans Picks and Prediction for Sunday, December 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) vs. Houston Texans (9-5)
Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season has arrived, and in this preview, we are breaking down Sunday’s AFC showdown from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, to get you the Raiders vs. Texans prediction and the latest team stats, news, and odds update.
The Raiders meet the Texans for the first time since 2022, when Las Vegas trounced Houston 38-20 as a 7-point home favorite. Las Vegas is a massive 14.5-point road underdog this time around, while the total sits at 37.5 points.
Read more about this Raiders vs. Texans prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 16. The kick-off at NRG Stadium is set at 10:25 PM ET.
The Raiders are free-falling
The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12; 5-9 ATS; 6-8 O/U) are on an eight-game losing streak, which started with a 31-0 road loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. Last Sunday, the lowly Raiders suffered a 31-0 defeat at the Philadelphia Eagles.
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Kenny Pickett got his first starting call of the season last Sunday. He went 15-of-25, throwing for 64 yards and an interception. Pickett was sacked four times, and the Raiders mustered a paltry 75 total yards.
“This is the result against the world champs, who maybe weren’t playing quite like that for a month here or whatever, but they looked like it today,” Raiders coach Pete Carroll said. "It looked like a great team today.”
Geno Smith sat out the Eagles game due to a shoulder injury. He practiced fully on Thursday and should be ready to play Sunday against the Texans. Smith has thrown for 2,648 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions across 13 starts this season.
Safety Jeremy Chinn and defensive end Maxx Crosby both missed Wednesday’s practice and were limited on Thursday. Chinn has amassed 107 tackles through 14 games this season, while Crosby has recorded 10 sacks and a staggering 26 tackles for loss.
The Raiders score just 14.0 points per game (32nd in the NFL) while surrendering 25.9 points in return (25th). Their defense is 17th in rushing yards (118.9 per game), 16th in passing yards (211.3), 32nd in 3rd down conversion (48.9%), and 21st in red-zone percentage (60.0%).
The Texans continue to impress
The Houston Texans (9-5; 8-6 ATS; 4-10 O/U) have gone 6-0 SU and ATS since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9. Last Sunday, the Texans got things going on the offensive side of the ball, beating the Arizona Cardinals 40-20 at NRG Stadium.
Houston outgained Arizona 399-307 in total yards and won the turnover battle 2-0. C.J. Stroud threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns, Jawhar Jordan rushed 15 times for 101 yards, and Nico Collins caught three passes for 85 yards and two touchdowns.
“We started off a little rough, but you want to be playing your best ball in December going into January,” Stroud said. “Since we’re doing that, it’s really good. Every week, we just keep progressing, and I think that’s all we can do right now.”
Stroud has thrown for 2,441 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions through 11 games this season. Collins has recorded 64 receptions, 1,001 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns, while tight end Dalton Schultz has caught 70 passes for 650 yards and two touchdowns.
The Texans score 23.1 points per game (17th in the NFL) while yielding just 16.3 points in return (1st). Their defense ranks fourth in rushing yards (92.7 per game), fourth in passing yards (176.5), third in 3rd down conversion (33.9%), and 18th in red-zone percentage (58.8%).
Running back Nick Chubb missed the Cardinals game with a rib injury, but he should be ready for Week 16. Fellow RB Woody Marks (ankle) didn’t practice on Thursday, while cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, and defensive tackles Denico Autry and Sheldon Rankins are all questionable for Sunday’s game against Las Vegas.
Raiders vs. Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Raiders vs. Texans
- Houston Texans -14.5 (5 units)
Both teams have injury worries ahead of Week 16, and there’s no way I’m going to back the slumping Raiders, whose offense has been an absolute disaster all season. Now, the Raiders will face one of the best defensive teams in the league, and I expect Houston to dominate Las Vegas.
The Raiders are dead last in the league in both rushing yards (70.8 per game) and yards per carry (3.4). Their offensive line will have a mountain to climb in this matchup. The Texans’ defense has amassed 38 sacks (8th in the NFL), 73 tackles for loss (tied for 8th), and 24 takeaways (tied for 3rd) this season.
Over/Under Pick for Raiders vs. Texans
- Over 37.5 (5 units)
The line has been set pretty low. As I noted, the Raiders are dead last in the NFL in scoring offense, while the Texans boast the best scoring defense. The Raiders’ defense has been shaky, and if Maxx Crosby or Jeremy Chinn hit the sidelines, Las Vegas will be in big trouble. The Texans’ offense has improved over the last few weeks.
I have to take the over despite the Texans’ sturdy defense. The Raiders can only play better than they did against Philadelphia last week, and the Texans might decide to rest some of their defensive playmakers down the stretch. I expect the Texans to continue to improve on the offensive side of the ball and build a big lead through the first three quarters.
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