Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Sunday, January 4, 2026
A pair of AFC West foes looking to earn a victory meet in the Mile-High City as the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Denver Broncos in the regular season finale for both teams Sunday afternoon and we have you covered with our Chargers vs. Broncos prediction. Los Angeles fell 20-16 at home to Jacksonville last Saturday in their previous contest, losing outright as a one-point favorite. Denver picked up a 20-13 road win over Kansas City on Christmas night, failing to cover the line as a 13.5-point favorite, in their previous game. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Broncos own a 72-58-1 with the Chargers winning the last three, including a 23-20 home win in the most recent clash September 21, 2025. Read more about this Chargers vs. Broncos prediction! Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our NFL Picks!
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Los Angeles Prepping for Postseason
Los Angeles battled but couldn’t dig their way out of an early hole against the Texans at home in their previous contest last Saturday. The Chargers enter the regular season finale 11-5 on the year and stand second in the AFC West. They currently own the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture and could end up with anywhere from the fifth to seventh seed depending on how things unfold. Against Houston, Los Angeles trailed 14-0 after the opening quarter and never got even again. The Chargers got within four with 3:37 remaining but didn’t get the ball back again, sending them to defeat. Los Angeles was outgained 362-275 in total offense and lost time of possession by a 30:21 to 29:39 margin. Those numbers offset the fact that they forced two turnovers while committing one while both teams finished with 16 first downs in the contest.
On the year, the Chargers are 15th in the league in passing offense with 219 yards per game while they are 12th in rushing offense with an average of 122.1 yards per contest. Los Angeles is 17th in the league in scoring offense with 22.8 points per contest and 7th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 20.1 points per contest. Justin Herbert has hit 340 of 512 passes for 3,727 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 54 times while ranking third on the team with 498 yards plus two scores on the ground. Trey Lance is seven of 13 for 90 yards plus 16 rushing yards as the backup. Kimani Vidal leads the team with 152 carries for 631 yards and three scores on the ground. Omarion Hampton (124 carries, 545 yards, four TD), Jaret Patterson (33 carries, 130 yards) and Najee Harris (15 carries, 61 yards) are next in line. Ladd McConkey is second on the team with 66 receptions for 789 yards and six scores. Keenan Allen (74 receptions, 741 yards, four TD), Quentin Johnston (51 catches, 735 yards, eight TD), tight end Oronde Gadsden II (47 grabs, 641 yards, three TD) and Tre’ Harris (28 catches, 296 yards, TD) are solid secondary options in the passing game. Cameron Dicker is 34 of 35 on extra point attempts and 37 of 40 on field goal attempts with a long of 59 this season.
Key Injury Report for Chargers:
- Linebacker Denzel Perryman (suspension) is out.
Broncos Trying to Lock Down Top Seed in AFC Postseason
Denver rebounded from a loss to Jacksonville as they downed the Chiefs on the road on Christmas night. The Broncos improved to 13-3 on the year and have won the AFC West. They currently own the top seed in the AFC playoff picture and can clinch a bye with a win here or a Patriots lost to Miami. Against Kansas City, Denver led 3-0 after one quarter, trailed 7-6 at the half and led 13-10 after three quarters. The Broncos, with the game tied, went 65 yards in 14 plays, capped by RJ Harvey’s one-yard TD reception from Bo Nix, with 1:45 remaining to take the lead for good and held on for the win. Denver owned a 303-139 advantage in total offense, picked up 22 first downs while allowing 10 and controlled the clock by a 39:28 to 20:32 margin to offset committing the game’s lone turnover.
The Broncos enter this game 9th in the league in passing offense with an average of 230.2 yards per game through the air and they stand 19th in rushing offense by putting up 118.9 yards per contest. Denver is 14th in scoring offense with an average of 23.9 points per game while they are 4th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 19.3 points a contest. Bo Nix is 374 of 589 passing for 3,790 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while getting sacked 18 times. He is third on the team in rushing with 75 carries for 307 yards and five scores. J.K. Dobbins (153 carries, team-high 772 yards, four TD) and RJ Harvey (131 carries, 512 yards, seven TD) are the top two backs in the system. Courtland Sutton leads the team with 73 receptions for 1,012 yards plus seven scores on the year. Troy Franklin (65 receptions, 709 yards, six TD), Pat Bryant (27 receptions, 347 yards, TD), Marvin Mims Jr. (35 catches, 312 yards, TD), Harvey (46 catches, 351 yards, five TD) and Evan Engram (47 grabs, 416 yards, TD) are solid targets. Wil Lutz has hit 38 of 38 extra point attempts and is 24 of 28 on field goal attempts with a long of 57 this season.
Key Injury Report for Broncos:
- TBD
Chargers vs. Broncos Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Spread Pick for Chargers vs. Broncos
- Broncos -12.5 (4 units)
Los Angeles is likely resting most of their key pieces since last week’s results took away their chances of winning the AFC West. That means Herbert, among others, will be in street clothes for this contest instead of running the offense. It’s a smart move for the Chargers, seeing how Herbert has been sacked 54 times and would be facing a ferocious Denver pass rush. In the short term though, it puts the Bolts in fade territory for this one. Denver needs a win to earn a first round bye and they have a couple extra days of rest in addition to the motivation of the bye. Look for the Broncos to take advantage of the Chargers here to earn the win.
Over/Under Pick for Chargers vs. Broncos
- Under 38 (4 units)
Los Angeles has seen the under post a 9-6-1 mark in their 16 games in relation to the total this season. The Chargers have seen the under post a 4-2-1 mark in their seven road games in relation to the total though they have seen the under post a 5-1-1 mark in their last seven games overall. Denver has stayed under the number in nine of their 16 contests on the season. The Broncos have split their eight home games in relation to the total but they are dealing with a team that is good defensively. Los Angeles sputters offensively and that helps keep this game under the total.
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