Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Sunday, January 11, 2026
It’s an AFC Wild Card Playoff matchup in the Bay State as the Los Angeles Chargers travel to take on the New England Patriots Sunday night and we have you covered with our Chargers vs. Patriots prediction. Los Angeles closed the regular season with a 19-3 road loss to Denver last Sunday, failing to cover the line as a 15.5-point underdog, in their previous contest. New England rolled to a 38-10 home win over Miami in their regular season finale last Sunday, covering the line as a 14.5-point favorite, in their previous contest. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Patriots own a 24-16-2 advantage, though the Chargers took the last two, including a 40-7 road win in the most recent matchup December 28, 2024. New England has won three of the four postseason matchups, including a 41-28 home win, in the AFC Divisional Playoff January 13, 2019 in the most recent meeting. Who moves on and who goes home? Read more about this Chargers vs. Patriots prediction! Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our NFL Picks!
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Chargers Hoping to Earn Road Upset
Los Angeles dropped their final two games of the season as they chose to rest players in week 18 after their loss the week before relegated them to a wild card spot. The Chargers finished the regular season 11-6 and finished second in the AFC West. They ended up with the final wild card spot in the AFC playoff picture. Against Denver, Los Angeles found themselves down 10-0 after the opening quarter and got no closer than seven the rest of the way. The Chargers were edged 240-217 in total offense, lost time of possession by a 34:01 to 25:59 margin and committed two turnovers, including a pick-six, while failing to record a takeaway. Both teams finished with 13 first downs in the game.
On the year, the Chargers are 18th in the league in passing offense with 212.2 yards per game while they are 12th in rushing offense with an average of 121.6 yards per contest. Los Angeles is 20th in the league in scoring offense with 21.6 points per contest and 9th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 20 points per contest. Justin Herbert has hit 340 of 512 passes for 3,727 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 54 times while ranking third on the team with 498 yards plus two scores on the ground. Trey Lance is 27 of 57 for 226 yards with an interception plus 85 rushing yards as the backup. Kimani Vidal leads the team with 152 carries for 631 yards and three scores on the ground. Omarion Hampton (124 carries, 545 yards, four TD), Jaret Patterson (41 carries, 159 yards) and Najee Harris (15 carries, 61 yards) are next in line. Ladd McConkey is second on the team with 66 receptions for 789 yards and six scores. Keenan Allen (81 receptions, 777 yards, four TD), Quentin Johnston (51 catches, 735 yards, eight TD), tight end Oronde Gadsden II (49 grabs, 664 yards, three TD) and Tre’ Harris (30 catches, 324 yards, TD) are solid secondary options in the passing game. Cameron Dicker is 34 of 35 on extra point attempts and 38 of 41 on field goal attempts with a long of 59 this season.
Key Injury Report for Chargers:
- TBD
New England Seeking to Punch Ticket to Divisional Round
New England closed the regular season with three straight wins as they rolled Miami at home last Sunday in their previous contest. The Patriots finished the regular season 14-3 and won the AFC East crown. They finished second in the AFC playoff picture. Against Miami, New England jumped in front just 1:46 into the game and didn’t let Miami get even after that. The Patriots led 14-0 after the opening quarter, 17-10 at the half and then outscored the Dolphins 21-0 in the second half to earn the win. New England rolled up a 457-180 advantage in total offense, racked up a 22-13 edge in first downs, won time of possession by a 30:49 to 29:11 margin and forced two turnovers while not committing any in the victory.
The Patriots finished the regular season ranked 4th in the league in passing offense as they average 250.5 yards per game through the air. New England is 6th in the league in rushing offense with an average of 128.9 yards per contest on the ground. The Patriots are 2nd in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 28.8 points per game. New England is 4th in scoring defense as they allow 18.8 points per contest. Drake Maye is 354 of 492 passing for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions while getting sacked 47 times. He is third on the team with 450 rushing yards and four scores. Joshua Dobbs is seven of 10 passing for 65 yards as the backup. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team on the ground with 180 carries for 911 yards and nine scores. Rhamondre Stevenson (130 carries, 603 yards, seven TD) and Antonio Gibson (25 carries, 106 yards, TD) were also in the mix. Stefon Diggs led the team with 85 receptions for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. Hunter Henry (60 grabs, 787 yards, seven TD), Kayshon Boutte (33 catches, 551 yards, six TD), Mack Hollins (46 receptions, 550 yards, two TD), DeMario Douglas (31 grabs, 446 yards, three TD), Stevenson (32 catches, 345 yards, two TD), Austin Hooper (21 receptions, 263 yards, two TD), Henderson (35 grabs, 221 yards, TD) and Kyle Williams (10 catches, 209 yards, three TD) are solid targets through the air. Andy Borregales is 53 of 55 on extra point attempts and 27 of 32 on field goal attempts with a long of 59 this season.
Key Injury Report for Patriots:
- TBD
Chargers vs. Patriots Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Spread Pick for Chargers vs. Patriots
- Patriots -3.5 (4 units)
Los Angeles is rested but they have to travel here and one has to wonder how they will fare in the elements. The high temperature Sunday is slated to be in the low-40s but by the time we get to kickoff, expect the low-30s at best with winds around 15 miles per hour. Teams that play their home games in domes are just 1–14 when traveling on the road to face opponents in temperatures of 40 degrees or below in the past decade. Now, the one win in that stretch was the Chargers’ triumph over New England last season, so they have the potential to earn the win. Seeing that the Bolts have offensive line problems and issues in the red zone, give the slimmest of edges to the Patriots here.
Over/Under Pick for Chargers vs. Patriots
- Under 46.5 (4 units)
Los Angeles has seen the under post an 11-6 mark in their 17 games in relation to the total this season. The Chargers have seen the under post a 5-3 mark in their eight road games in relation to the total though they have seen the under post a 6-2 mark in their last eight games overall. New England has posted an 11-6 mark to the over in their 17 games on the season. The Patriots went over the number in six of their nine home games this season and enters this game having seen the over hit in each of their final five games on the year. With a pair of good defenses and inconsistent red zone offenses, lean toward the under in this contest.
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