Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of AFC East rivals kick off week 3 of the NFL schedule in Western New York as the Miami Dolphins travel to take on the Buffalo Bills Thursday night and we have you covered with our Dolphins vs. Bills prediction. Miami comes in off a 33-27 home loss to New England in their previous game Sunday, losing outright as a 2.5-point favorite. Buffalo whipped the Jets 30-10 on the road Sunday, covering the line as a six-point favorite in their previous contest. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Dolphins own a 61-56-1 advantage though the Bills have won five straight in the series and 12 of the last 13 meetings. That includes a 30-27 home triumph in the most recent matchup on November 3, 2024. Read more about this Dolphins vs. Bills prediction! Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our NFL Picks!
Miami Staring Down Potential 0-3 Start
Miami had its chances against New England but miscues in all three phases left them on the wrong end of the scoreboard Sunday. The Dolphins dropped to 0-2 on the year and are now on the road against a team that has had their number in recent years. Against New England, Miami trailed 12-0 after the opening quarter, 15-14 at the half and 23-20 after three quarters. The Dolphins took a 27-23 lead with 7:18 remaining on a Malik Washington 74-yard punt return for a score but that lead lasted just 12 seconds as they allowed a 90-yard kick return for a score on the ensuing kickoff. Miami had two more possessions to try and take the lead: they ended with an interception on fourth down and then a fourth-down sack. The Dolphins held a 358-333 advantage in total offense, though they lost the first down battle 18-16, committed the game’s lone turnover and lost time of possession by a 33:45 to 26:15 margin.
On the season, the Dolphins are 15th in the league in passing offense as they average 215 yards per contest this season. The Dolphins are 29th in rushing offense as they average 69.5 yards per game on the ground. Miami is 25th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 17.5 points per game. The Dolphins are 31st in scoring defense as they give up an average of 33 points a contest. Tua Tagovailoa is 40 of 55 for 2,867 yards with three touchdowns against three interceptions. He has seven rushing yards and has been sacked eight times this season. Zach Wilson (five of eight, 32 yards, three rush yards) is the backup quarterback. De’Von Achane leads the team on the ground with 18 carries for 85 yards this season. Malik Washington is second on the team in the run game with four carries for 32 yards on the year. Rookie Ollie Gordon II (three carries, 12 yards) has also seen action in the run game. Tyreek Hill is second on the team with 10 catches for 149 yards on the season. Jaylen Waddle (nine catches, 98 yards, TD) and Achane (11 grabs, 112 yards, two TD) are the only other players with more than 25 receiving yards so far this year. Jason Sanders has hit 24 of 26 extra point attempts and 35 of 39 field goal attempts with a long of 57 this season.
Miami’s depth chart is in shambles just two weeks into the season. The right side of their offensive line (James Daniels, Austin Jackson) are on injured reserve, which is bad news since that’s Tagovailoa’s blind side. Among the walking wounded that are in uniform, cornerback Storm Duck (hip) and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (hamstring) both did not practice Monday. Cornerback Ethan Bonner (hamstring), center Aaron Bonner (hip), defensive tackle Benito Jones (oblique), linebacker Chop Robinson (knee), tight end Darren Waller (hip), wide receiver Malik Washington (thumb) and running back Jaylen Wright (knee) were all limited. Watch for updates closer to kickoff.
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Bills Looking to Maintain Perfect Record
Buffalo, one week after a thrilling comeback win over Baltimore, put the boots to the Jets as they prevailed in one-sided fashion on the road. The Bills improved to 2-0 on the year and look to maintain their momentum at home here. Against the Jets, the Bills stopped New York on a three-and-out on the opening possession, drove down the field for a touchdown on their first drive, and led the rest of the way. Buffalo piled up a 403-154 advantage in total offense, owned a 25-11 margin in first downs, dominated time of possession by a 38:21 to 21:39 margin and forced the game’s lone turnover in the contest.
On This year, the Bills are tied for 2nd in the league in passing offense with an average of 284 yards per game and 2nd in rushing with an average of 166 yards per contest. Buffalo is second in the league in scoring offense by putting up 35.5 points per contest and they are 22nd in the league in scoring defense by allowing 25.5 points per game. Josh Allen is 47 of 71 passing for 542 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions on the season. He is second on the team on the ground with 89 rushing yards and two scores. Mitch Trubisky (one of two, 32 yards) has seen limited action. James Cook leads the run game with 34 carries for 176 yards and three scores. Ray Davis (10 carries, 26 yards), Ty Johnson (four carries, 30 yards) and Elijah Moore (three carries, 14 yards, TD) have also seen work on the ground. Khalil Shakir is tied for third on the team as he has hauled in seven passes for 76 yards and. Joshua Palmer (seven receptions, 108 yards), Cook (six receptions, 61 yards), Dalton Kincaid (eight grabs, 85 yards, TD) and Keon Coleman (11 grabs, 138 yards, TD) are solid options in the aerial assault. Matt Prater is five of five on extra point attempts and six of six on field goal attempts with a long of 52 this season.
On the injury front, defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) both didn’t practice Monday and Tuesday. Linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring/hand) along with defensive backs Taron Johnson (quad) and Cam Lewis (shoulder) were each limited both days. Watch for updates on their status leading up to kickoff.
Dolphins vs. Bills Pick
Spread Pick for Dolphins vs. Bills
- Bills -11.5 (4 units)
Let’s be honest, Miami is a team that has looked awful in the first two weeks of the season. The Dolphins’ defense made Daniel Jones and Drake Maye look like first-ballot Hall of Famers to start the year. Now, they face the reigning MVP in Allen, who has carved up the Dolphins since coming into the league. Buffalo’s big issue defensively the first two weeks was stopping the run, particularly the zone read, but that isn’t part or Miami’s game plan. Tagovailoa isn’t a scrambler like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields. He may be running for his life thanks to the injuries that have destroyed his offensive line, particularly his blind side. Buffalo has owned the Dolphins and the combination of injuries on both sides of the ball for Miami is too much for Miami to handle. Look for the Bills to roll to the victory here.
Over/Under Pick for Dolphins vs. Bills
- Over 49.5 (4 units)
Miami split their first two games in relation to the total this season. The Dolphins combined with the Colts for 41 points to fall short of the 46.5-point number set in the opener. Miami then saw a combined 60 points in the loss to New England at home Sunday to blow past the number of 42.5 points set by the books. Buffalo split their first two games of the year in terms of the number. The Bills and Ravens piled up a combined 81 points to cruise past the number of 51.5 points set by the books in the opener. Last week, the Bills and Jets totaled 40 points to wind up short of the 47.5-point mark set by the books. Buffalo has hung at least 30 points on the Dolphins in 11 of the last 14 meetings, including their postseason meeting after the 2022 campaign. Look for the Bills to crack that plateau again to help push this one over the total.
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