Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 13 2026

Sunday's Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders picks feature two teams beginning new coaching eras with veteran quarterbacks in very different situations. Las Vegas is favored by 3.5 at Allegiant Stadium, and the total is 40.5. The spread has stayed in the same general range, which makes the hook beyond the key number of 3 important for Miami backers.

Malik Willis starts for Miami after the Dolphins moved on from Tua Tagovailoa, while Kirk Cousins officially won the Raiders' Week 1 job over No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Las Vegas has the home-field and quarterback-experience advantages, but Miami's speed and defensive personnel give the Dolphins a realistic path to keep the game within one possession.

Best Available Odds for Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

• Moneyline: Miami +154, Las Vegas -185
• Spread: Miami +3.5 (-115), Las Vegas -3.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 40.5 (-115), Under 40.5 (-105)

Game Info

• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
• Current spread: Las Vegas -3.5
• Current total: 40.5
• Conditions: Indoor game

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders Preview

Miami's offensive transition is substantial. Jeff Hafley begins his first season as head coach, Willis takes over at quarterback and the roster is carrying the consequences of a major financial reset. That does not mean the Dolphins lack offensive threats. De'Von Achane rushed for 1,350 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2025 and remains one of the fastest backs in football.

Achane is particularly important for Willis. Miami can use the run game, option concepts and quick throws to avoid asking its quarterback to live in long dropbacks. Willis' mobility can stress the edge and create an extra gap for Las Vegas to defend. The Dolphins should make the Raiders prove they can handle that movement before becoming overly aggressive downfield.

Las Vegas chose experience at quarterback. Klint Kubiak named Cousins the Week 1 starter after a strong camp, with Mendoza beginning his career as the backup. Cousins has worked in Kubiak-style systems before and should be comfortable with play action, timing throws and the footwork required to marry the passing game to the run.

That experience is valuable because Miami's defense still has impact talent. Jordyn Brooks earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2025, and the Dolphins can create problems if they make Las Vegas one-dimensional. Cousins is far less dangerous when pressure arrives before his receivers separate, so the Raiders need their offensive line and backfield to keep Miami from attacking obvious passing downs.

Maxx Crosby is the defender who can make Miami's offensive transition painful. If the Dolphins fall behind the chains, Crosby can force Willis to escape before routes are ready. Miami should use motion, chips and designed movement to avoid leaving its tackles in isolated protection against him for an entire afternoon.

Matchup Breakdown

The Raiders' offensive plan should be patient. Cousins does not need to prove he can carry a 40-attempt game in Week 1. Las Vegas can use play action, attack the middle of the field and lean on its backs if Miami plays lighter boxes. That approach also protects the veteran quarterback from a pass rush that becomes more dangerous when the offense is predictable.

Miami's best chance is to create explosives without creating excessive turnover risk. Willis can threaten Las Vegas with his legs, but scrambling cannot become the entire offense. The Dolphins need Achane to produce efficient early-down gains and give Willis easy completions off play action. A few explosive runs can completely change a game with a total of only 40.5.

The spread at 3.5 is more important than the difference between these teams on paper. Las Vegas can be the correct favorite and still fail to cover with a three-point win. Miami is going through more change, but the Dolphins have enough speed to stay within one possession if they avoid giving the Raiders short fields.

The total at 40.5 reflects the uncertainty on both offenses. Las Vegas is beginning with a new coaching staff and a veteran quarterback in a new uniform, while Miami is asking Willis to lead a rebuilt attack. Allegiant Stadium removes weather from the equation, but that does not automatically create scoring if both teams prefer controlled game plans.

Las Vegas also has a potential backfield variable with Ashton Jeanty working back from an ankle issue. His status should be monitored as the week progresses, but the broader point remains that the Raiders are unlikely to need an aggressive pass-first plan. Kubiak can protect Cousins and shorten the game if the score remains close.

Field position could become the hidden deciding factor. Neither offense wants to start drives inside its own 10 and ask a quarterback in a new situation to manufacture long scoring possessions. That puts a premium on avoiding sacks, protecting the football and getting something from the punt game even when a drive stalls. Miami's defense can keep the spread live if it forces Las Vegas to travel 70 or 80 yards for points rather than letting Cousins operate on short fields.

Game Thesis: Las Vegas has the steadier quarterback setup and should win at home, but the Raiders are being asked to clear the key number of 3 in a low-total game. Miami can stay close by leaning on Achane, using Willis' mobility and forcing Cousins to work through long fields rather than gifting Las Vegas easy scoring opportunities.

Dolphins vs Raiders Best Bet - Spread: Miami +3.5 (-115)

Miami +3.5 is the preferred wager because the hook matters in a matchup that projects toward a one-score finish. The Dolphins do not need Willis to be the best passer on the field. They need him to protect the ball, create a few plays with his legs and let Achane provide the explosive element.

Miami also benefits if the game stays slow enough that every possession carries extra weight. A 10-7 halftime score would make 3.5 points increasingly valuable and reduce the number of chances Las Vegas has to create separation. The danger is Crosby. If Miami cannot prevent him from taking over obvious passing downs, the Dolphins can lose field position quickly and expose Willis to turnover risk. The wager remains attractive while Miami is getting more than a field goal. At +3, the cushion is materially less useful.

Dolphins vs Raiders Total Pick: Under 40.5 (-105)

The Under matches both teams' likely opening scripts. Las Vegas can lean on Cousins' experience without asking him to carry the offense, and Miami should use the run game and quarterback movement to keep Willis out of high-risk passing situations. With both teams introducing new systems, a game decided in the low 20s is more likely than an immediate offensive breakout.

Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders 20, Miami Dolphins 17