Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday, January 4 2026
It’s an AFC East showdown to end the regular season on Sunday, Jan. 4. Read our Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction along with our other NFL Picks! The Dolphins are 7-9 overall this season. They have won five of their last seven games coming into this matchup. Quinn Ewers has been featured tor the Dolphins so far and he’s produced in his short time at quarterback. The Patriots are 13-3 and they have clinched the AFC East already, but they will be playing all of their starters in this game as they try to take the No. 1 seed. These two team swill meet with kick-off set for 4:25 P.M. EST.
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Miami finding wins with Quinn Ewers
Miami is 7-9 overall this season. The Dolphins are in third-place in the AFC East as they are only ahead of the Jets. The Dolphins are eliminated from playoff contention as they look to the future of the organization. Miami has played their worst on the road this year with a 2-5 record. They have found form recently winning five of their last seven games.
In their last game, the Dolphins defeated Tampa Bay 20-17 at home on Sunday, Dec 28. The Dolphins scored 17 straight points to take a 17-7 lead at halftime. The Dolphins nailed a field goal in the fourth quarter to give themselves a 10-point lead, which was good enough to seal the win. Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns on 14-for-22 passing in the win. De’Von Achane added 83 rushing yards, which was key in icing the win.
Ewers, who replaced Tua Tagovailoa a few weeks ago, has thrown for 485 yards in three games completing 65% of his passes. He has tossed two touchdowns and two picks in his short stint. Achane has been the team’s best weapon rushing for 1,350 yards and eight touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle has also caught 64 passing for 910 yards and six touchdowns on the year.
On defense, linebacker Jordan Brooks has 174 total tackles to lead the team. Bradley Chubb has a team-high 8.5 sacks while the defense has forced 20 turnovers on the year.
Miami is averaging 21.1 points per game, which ranks 22nd in the league. They are the 10th ranked rushing attack averaging 123.8 yards per game. The Dolphins are passing for 184.4 yards per game, which ranks 25th.
On Defense, the Dolphins are allowing 24.1 points per game, which ranks 21st. Miami is allowing 216.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 18th. They are the 24th ranked rush defense, allowing 125.5 yards per game.
The Dolphins are 8-8 against the spread this season. They are 3-4 against the spread when playing on the road this season. Miami is also 5-5 against the spread as an underdog. The Dolphins are 2-0 against the spread as an underdog of eight points or more. The over is 8-6-2 when Miami has played this season. The over is 5-1-1 when Miami has played this season on the road. The over is 5-4-1 when the Dolphins have been underdogs.
Injury report
- S Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf), out
- RB De’Von Achane (shoulder), doubtful
- LB Quinton Bell (illness), questionable
- OL Aaron Brewer (neck), questionable
- LB Jordyn Brooks (hamstring), questionable
- OL Austin Jackson (back/groin), questionable
- LB Chop Robinson (concussion), questionable
- K Jason Sanders (hip), questionable
- WR Jaylen Waddle (ribs), questionable
Patriots have division clinched, looking for No. 1 seed
New England is 13-3 overall this season. The Patriots have clinched the AFC East as they are two games ahead of the Bills with one game left. New England will be playing their starters in this game as they push for the No. 1 overall seed. They are tied with the Broncos for the top seed, with the Broncos holding the tie breaker. The Patriots are 5-3 when they have played at home this season. The Patriots had their 10 game winning streak snapped by the Bills in Week 15. Since that loss, the Patriots have won back-to-back games.
In their last game, the Patriots defeated the Jets 42-10 away form home on Sunday, Dec. 28. It was an easy win for New England as they dominated. Quarterback Drake Maye’s MVP caliber season has rolled on and he showcased his skills by throwing five touchdowns and 256 yards on 19-for-21 passing. TreVeyon Henderson added 82 yards on the ground, too. Stefon Diggs caught six passes for 101 yards and a touchdown.
Diggs is expected to play against the Dolphins despite facing felony charge of strangulation and a misdemeanor charge of assault from an alleged incident on Dec. 2.
Diggs is the leading receiver for the Patriots with 970 yards and four touchdowns. Maye has dominated this season with 4,203 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Henderson, in his rookie season, has been great, too. He’s got 858 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
On defense, the Patriots are led in tackles by Robert Spillane with 97. Harold Landry III has a team-high 8.5 sacks, too. The defense has forced 17 turnovers on the season.
New England is averaging 28.3 points per game, which ranks fifth-best. They are the third-ranked passing team, averaging 252.8 passing yards per game. The Patriots are averaging 121.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 13th.
On defense, the Patriots are allowing 19.4 points per game, which ranks fifth-best. They are allowing 198.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th best. New England is allowing 104.1 rush yards per game, placing them eighth-best.
New England is 10-6 against the spread this season. They are 3-5 against the spread when playing at home. The Patriots are 6-4 against the spread when they have been favored. They are 3-2 against the spread when playing against divisional foes. The over is 10-6 when the Patriots have played this season. The over is 5-3 when the Patriots have played this season. The over is 6-4 when New England has been favored.
Injury report
- LB Harold Landry III (knee), out
- LB Robert Spillane (ankle), out
- DT Khyiris Tonga (foot), out
- G Jared Wilson (concussion), out
- CB Charles Woods (foot), questionable
- TE Jack Westover (ankle), questionable
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Picks
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Dolphins vs Patriots Spread Pick
- New England Patriots -11.5 (5 units)
What an easy win it was for the Patriots when they destroyed the Jets last week. A similar result is in play for this game as New England looks to take the No. 1 seed. The Patriots will have all of the tools at their disposal and it should be a rather easy victory. They defeated the Dolphins earlier in the same, so a win for New England should come naturally. The Dolphins are riding high winning five of their last seven games, but they have struggled on the road throughout the entire year. The Dolphins star running back De’Von Achane is doubtful for the game and that would be a massive loss for the offense. The Dolphins don’t have anything to play for either, which is another reason for an easy win.
Take the Patriots to cover.
Dolphins vs Patriots Over/Under Pick
- Over 45.5 (5 units)
The offense for the Patriots has been cooking recently. They have scored at least 28 points in four straight games coming into this game. The Dolphins have been able to score points, too. This game will hit the over easily and it comes down to poor defense and explosive big plays. The over is 5-3 when the Patriots have played this season. The over is 6-4 when New England has been favored. The over is 5-1-1 when Miami has played this season on the road.
Take the over on Sunday.
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