New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, January 25, 2026
New England (14-3) will be trying to advance to their first Super Bowl in the post-Tom Brady era when they visit Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday afternoon to face Denver (14-3) in the AFC Championship Game at 3 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Patriots vs. Broncos prediction. If you need quality winners, this is the ultimate site for NFL Picks.
The Patriots are coming off a 28-16 win over Houston as 3.5-point favorites. The Broncos are coming off a 33-30 win over Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites.
New England is 6-4 in its last 10 games against Denver. The Patriots won the last meeting in 2023, 26-23.
Patriots Going For Sixth Consecutive Win
The Patriots finished the season tied with Denver for the best record in the AFC and comfortably won their first two playoff games, extending their winning streak to five games. They will try to keep the momentum going, and advance to the Super Bowl with a win on Sunday.
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New England averages 28.8 points per game, which is second in the league. They throw for 250.5 yards and rush for 128.9 yards per game.
Drake Maye completed 72 percent of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions during the season. TreVeyon Henderson led the team with 180 carries for 911 yards and nine touchdowns, while Stefon Diggs led the team with 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns.
New England is giving up 17.8 points per game, which is third in the league. They’re giving up 189.6 passing yards and 98.1 rushing yards per game.
Broncos Hoping Backup Can Lead Them To Super Bowl
The Broncos won a tough game against Buffalo to advance to the AFC Championship Game, but it came at a high cost, with starting quarterback Bo Nix suffering an ankle injury that will sideline him for the rest of the postseason.
They will turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a pass since 2023, to lead them to the Super Bowl.
Denver averages 23.6 points per game, which is 14th in the league. They throw for 223.9 yards and rush for 118.7 yards per game.
Bo Nix completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 3,391 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. J.K. Dobbins led the team with 153 carries for 772 yards and four touchdowns, while Courtland Sutton led the team with 74 catches for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns.
Denver is giving up 18.3 points per game, which is fourth in the league. They’re giving up 191.6 passing yards and 96.2 rushing yards per game.
Patriots vs. Broncos Picks
Point Spread Pick for Patriots vs. Broncos
- New England Patriots -4 (4 Units)
The Patriots have the edge here because they’re playing well offensively, scoring more than 27 points per game in their last three games. Even though they like to throw the ball, expect them to run the ball heavily in this game because the Broncos struggled against the run in recent games and gave up more than 180 yards on the ground in their last game, allowing Buffalo to average more than five yards per carry. The ability to run the ball will open up their passing attack against a unit that gave up over 280 passing yards in their last game.
Denver will have a hard time keeping up offensively because they won’t be able to run the ball against the Patriots, who give up less than 100 yards per game. This will put a lot of pressure on Stidham, who will be forced to throw the ball more than he would like, against an opportunistic defense that has forced a lot of turnovers through two playoff games. Take New England to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Patriots vs. Broncos
- Under 42.5 (4 Units)
The Patriots average 28.8 points per game. They throw the ball 52 percent of the time with the fourth-ranked passing attack in the league, and they’re facing a team that is seventh against the pass, and gave up 15.3 points per game in their last three games. The Broncos average 23.6 points per game. They throw the ball 58 percent of the time with the 11th-ranked passing attack in the league, and they’re facing a team that is ninth against the pass, and gave up 9.7 points per game in their last three games. Don’t expect these teams to score enough points to push the score over the total. The Broncos and Patriots played under the total in three of their last five meetings.
