New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Picks and Prediction for Sunday, January 4, 2025
New Orleans Saints (6-10) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
The 2025 NFL regular season closes down on Sunday, bringing 14 games to bet on, including the NFC South showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA, so we have prepared the Saints vs. Falcons prediction to get you covered.
New Orleans hosted Atlanta in Week 12, when the Falcons beat the Saints 24-10 as 1.5-point underdogs. Last season, they split a two-game set, with each team emerging victorious at home.
Let’s take a closer look at this Saints vs. Falcons prediction, one of our NFL picks for Week 18. The Kick-off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set at 1:00 PM ET, and the Falcons are 3-point favorites with a total of 44.5 points.
Sign Up for Winners and Whiners News Alerts, Get Exclusive Offers and Discounts
Subscribe Now
The Saints are hot
The New Orleans Saints (6-10; 8-8 ATS; 5-11 O/U) are riding a four-game winning streak. During that stretch, the Saints have recorded a couple of road wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-20 and the Tennessee Titans 34-26 and a pair of home wins against the Carolina Panthers 20-17 and the New York Jets 29-6.
Last week, the Saints outgained the Titans 423-336 in total yards. New Orleans overcame a 13-0 deficit, and rookie Tyler Shough led the way, throwing for 333 yards and two touchdowns. Chris Olave had eight receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown, while Audric Estime rushed 14 times for 94 yards and a touchdown.
“He’s obviously having a special season,” New Orleans head coach Kellen Moore said of Shough. “I know he doesn’t start the season as the starter, but just the way he’s handled himself through this whole journey, I think really, really special.”
Shough has thrown for 2,125 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions across eight starts and two relief appearances. Over the last three weeks, Shough has tossed for 913 yards and four touchdowns while completing 72.2% of his passing attempts.
Olave is having a great season, too. He’s appeared in all 16 games, posting 100 receptions for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. Juwan Johnson has amassed 828 yards and three touchdowns, while Alvin Kamara has rushed for 471 yards and a TD. Kamara missed five straight games with a knee injury and is questionable for Week 18.
The Saints score 18.1 points per game (29th in the NFL) and allow 22.8 points in return (tied for 16th). Their defense is 23rd in rushing yards (125.1 per game), fifth in passing defense (180.4), third in 3rd down conversion (34.7%), and 11th in red-zone conversion (54.5%).
The Falcons eye their fourth straight W
The Atlanta Falcons (7-9; 9-7 ATS; 8-8 O/U) are back on track. They’ve won three straight contests, outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-28, the Arizona Cardinals 26-19, and the Los Angeles Rams 27-24.
Last Monday, the Falcons stunned the Rams in front of the home fans. Atlanta held Los Angeles scoreless in the first half, but the Rams found a way to erase a 21-point deficit. The Falcons came out on top thanks to Zane Gonzales’ 51-yard field goal with 21 seconds left on the clock in the fourth quarter.
“I was excited our guys went out and matched their intensity,” said Falcons head coach Raheem Morris, who won the Super Bowl 2022 as the Rams defensive coordinator. “I got a lot of respect obviously for that organization.”
Bijan Robinson tortured the Rams all night. He posted 22 carries for 195 yards and a touchdown and caught five passes for 34 yards and another score. Kirk Cousins threw for 126 yards and a TD, and the veteran signal-caller has tossed for 1,541 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions across seven starts and two relief appearances this season.
Robinson has done a great job this season, amassing 2,255 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns. Kyle Pitts has caught 82 passes for 870 yards and five touchdowns, while Drake London has recorded 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns. London has appeared in 11 games this season.
The Falcons score 20.9 points per game (tied for 23rd in the NFL) and allow 24.0 points in return (20th). Their defense ranks 26th in rushing yards (127.4 per game), 11th in passing yards (198.4), 21st in 3rd down conversion (40.6%), and 10th in red-zone defense (54.2%).
Saints vs. Falcons Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Spread Pick for Saints vs. Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons -3.0 (5 units)
There’s nothing to play for in this game besides pride, and the Saints must be highly motivated to avenge that 14-point home loss against the Falcons. However, the Saints will probably miss their best wideout.
According to Nick Underhill of New Orleans Football, Olave is expected to sit out the Saints’ regular-season finale against the Falcons after a blood clot was detected in his lung. That’s a massive blow for the Saints’ offense.
On the other side, Drake London and Kyle Pitts were both limited in Thursday’s practice. Bijan Robinson looks ready to go, and he could easily make a difference in this game, given the Saints’ defensive shortcomings.
Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 26 carries and 114 rushing yards in that 24-10 home win over New Orleans in Week 12. The Saints have done a good job against the pass this season, but their run defense has been an issue.
The Falcons have struggled against the rush, too, but the Saints’ ground game is one of the worst in the league. New Orleans tallies just 93.4 rushing yards per game (30th) and 3.7 yards per carry (31st). Hereof, I’m going with the Falcons.
Over/Under Pick for Saints vs. Falcons
- Under 44.5 (5 units)
I expect both teams to pound the rock and eat the clock. The Saints will probably miss Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, while the Falcons could easily decide to rest Kyle Pitts and Drake London. I would be surprised by a high-scoring affair.
In Week 12, New Orleans and Atlanta combined for 34 points, and the Falcons barely outgained the Saints 302-293 in total yards. The Saints racked up just 79 yards on 28 carries, while Tyler Shough went 30-of-43 for 243 yards and an interception.
The under is 4-2 in the last six encounters between New Orleans and Atlanta. Also, the under has hit in 10 of the Saints’ previous 12 games overall.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
