New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Picks and Prediction for Sunday, January 4, 2026
New York Jets (3-13) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The ultimate week of the 2025 NFL regular season is upon us, and in this preview, we are breaking down Sunday’s AFC East showdown from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, to get you the Jets vs. Bills prediction.
The Jets meet the Bills for the second time this season, and Buffalo aims for its fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory over New York. Back in Week 2, the Bills routed the Jets 30-10 as 5.5-point road favorites, and the game went under the 47.5-point line.
Read more about this Jets vs. Bills prediction, one of our NFL picks for Week 18. The kick-off at Highmark Stadium is set at 4:25 PM ET. The Bills opened as 11.5-point favorites, but that quickly moved to Buffalo -7.5 because Josh Allen was listed as questionable, and the Bills might decide to rest some of their starters.
At the moment, Buffalo is a 6.5-point fave with a total of 37.5 points, and the total moved one point from 38.5.
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The Jets hope to snap their four-game skid
The New York Jets (3-13; 7-9 ATS; 10-6 O/U) have dropped six of their previous seven games overall and are winless in four straight outings. During that four-game stretch, the Jets have recorded a couple of road defeats at the Jacksonville Jaguars 48-20 and the New Orleans Saints 29-6 along with a pair of home losses against the Miami Dolphins 34-10 and the New England Patriots 42-10.
Last Sunday, the Jets allowed 35 first-half points to New England, and the Pats went 5-for-5 in the red zone on the afternoon. Rookie Brady Cook completed just 19 of his 33 passing attempts, throwing for 152 yards and an interception, while Breece Hall led the way with 14 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown.
“Highly, highly disappointed in the way that we came out,” Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said. “Today was probably the one time I feel like our effort wasn’t as good as I want it to be.”
With Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor both out with injuries, Cook made his fourth straight start in Week 17. He’s been awful thus far, tossing for 679 yards, a touchdown, and seven interceptions. Fields won’t play against the Bills, while Taylor is listed as questionable.
Hall was limited in Thursday’s practice due to a knee injury. He’s done a great job this season, posting 243 carries for 1,065 yards and four touchdowns, and catching 36 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Mason Taylor and wideouts Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds are all on the IR.
The Jets score 18.3 points per game (28th in the NFL) and allow 29.3 points in return (30th). Their defense is 27th in the league in rushing yards (135.0 per game), 16th in passing yards (213.4), 10th in 3rd down conversion (36.7%), and 24th in red-zone conversion (62.9%).
The Bills look for a bounce-back performance
The Buffalo Bills (11-5; 7-9 ATS; 8-8 O/U) put an end to their four-game winning streak last Sunday. After beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-7, the Cincinnati Bengals 39-34, the New England Patriots 35-31, and the Cleveland Browns 23-20, the Bills suffered a 13-12 road defeat at the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Bills outgained the Eagles 331-190 in total yards. Buffalo nearly erased a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter, but with five seconds left on the clock, the Bills decided to go for a two-point conversion and failed.
Josh Allen completed 23 of his 35 passing attempts in Week 17. He threw for 262 yards while rushing seven times for 27 yards and two touchdowns. James Cook III had 20 carries for 74 yards, and Brandin Cooks posted four receptions for 101 yards.
“It just comes down to us executing, making one more play than they did. And obviously we saw that we didn’t make that last play,” Allen said. “I didn’t make that last play.”
Allen has thrown for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions this season. He’s rushed for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Cook has recorded 1,606 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. If Allen hits the sidelines, Mitchell Trubisky will start under center. Trubisky has tossed for 54 yards across three relief appearances this season.
The Bills score 27.9 points per game (6th in the NFL) and surrender 22.3 points in return (12th). Their defense ranks 29th in rushing yards (140.4 per game), first in passing defense (163.4), 24th in 3rd down conversion (41.6%), and 19th in red-zone conversion (58.7%).
Jets vs. Bills Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Spread Pick for Jets vs. Bills
- Buffalo Bills -6.5 (5 units)
Josh Allen was limited in Friday’s practice after sitting out on Wednesday and Thursday due to a foot injury. Allen doesn’t have a designation for Sunday’s clash against the Jets, so he might suit up. The Bills hold the No. 7 seed in the AFC, but they could move up a spot or two, depending on Sunday’s results.
Anyway, I can only look at the Bills in this game. The Jets have struggled a lot with Brady Cook under center, while their defense has been awful all season. New York has dropped four straight games by 23 or more points, so I expect the Bills to dominate even if Mitch Trubisky gets the starting call.
Over/Under Pick for Jets vs. Bills
- Over 37.5 (5 units)
The Bills will lean on their ground game to take full advantage of the Jets’ defensive shortcomings. James Cook III is having a wonderful season, leading the NFL in rushing yards, and he should be a go-to guy once more in Week 18.
Buffalo will probably miss safety Jordan Poyer, linebacker Terrel Bernard, and defensive end Joey Bosa. The Bills’ run defense has struggled, too, so the Jets will find a way to add to the scoreboard. I expect both Cook and Breece Hall to put on a strong performance.
We should see a lot of rushing in this game, but I have to take the over. Four of the Jets’ last five games overall and three of the Bills’ previous four have produced more than 37 points in total.
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