Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears Predictions, Picks, Odds and Trends for Sunday November 23
Let's look at our Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears prediction with line movement history, matchup analysis, ATS and total selections, and a projected final score. For more NFL insights, look at all of our NFL picks for this week.
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Quick Picks and Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears
- Side: Chicago Bears +2.5
- Total: Over 44.0
- Projected Final Score: Chicago Bears 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 21
- Confidence (0–3): Side 1.5 / Total 1.5
Odds and Line Movement: PIT vs CHI
FanDuel lists Pittsburgh as a small road favorite with the total sitting in the mid-40s. Below is the complete line movement history from the market.
Line Movement - Spread
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
| Date | Time | Pittsburgh | Chicago | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/19 | 10:48:32am | +2½ (-105) | -2½ (-115) | PIT 72%, 65% |
| 11/18 | 12:30:12pm | +2½ (-102) | -2½ (-120) | PIT 74%, 67% |
| 11/18 | 12:10:29pm | +3 (-118) | -3 (-102) | PIT 89%, 69% |
| 11/18 | 11:44:20am | +3 (-115) | -3 (-105) | PIT 89%, 69% |
| 11/18 | 08:36:07am | +3 (-108) | -3 (-112) | PIT 89%, 69% |
| 11/18 | 05:18:53am | +3 (-105) | -3 (-115) | PIT 89%, 69% |
| 11/17 | 08:15:52am | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) | PIT 86%, 61% |
| 11/16 | 08:02:39pm | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) | |
| 11/16 | 05:37:07pm | +3 (-105) | -3 (-115) | |
| 11/16 | 07:21:32pm | +2½ (-105) | -2½ (-115) | |
| 11/11 | 01:00:17pm | +1½ (-105) | -1½ (-115) | PIT 91%, 70% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 12:30:12pm | 44½ o(-120) | 44½ u(-102) | |
| 11/18 | 11:44:20am | 44½ o(-118) | 44½ u(-104) | |
| 11/18 | 11:42:58am | 44½ o(-110) | 44½ u(-110) | |
| 11/17 | 05:04:12am | 44½ o(-110) | 44½ u(-110) | |
| 11/17 | 09:18:58am | 44 o(-118) | 44 u(-104) | |
| 11/16 | 07:21:32pm | 44½ o(-110) | 44½ u(-110) | |
| 11/11 | 01:00:17pm | 45½ o(-115) | 45½ u(-105) |
Key Matchups and Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears
This is the first meeting between Pittsburgh and Chicago since November 2021. Chicago has performed well in this matchup, covering the number in each of the last four meetings. The Steelers are coming off a 34-12 home win over the Bengals, but the bigger story is the possible loss of Aaron Rodgers. He is dealing with a potential wrist fracture and is listed as doubtful, meaning Mason Rudolph may be in line to start.
Chicago enters in excellent recent form at 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread over its last eight games. The Bears pulled off another late miracle last Sunday when Cairo Santos drilled a 48 yard game winning field goal to beat Minnesota. Five of Chicago’s seven wins this season have been by less than a touchdown, showing a consistent ability to stay competitive in tight games.
Pittsburgh’s last three games have stayed under the total, but this matchup has ingredients for points. The Steelers began the season with an element of surprise around their new offensive structure with Rodgers. However, once opponents had film, it became clear the passing game lived almost exclusively on short routes. If Rudolph starts, the playbook could open vertically, allowing more aggressive downfield concepts. And with Rudolph and Caleb Williams both capable of mistakes, a defensive score would not be surprising.
Betting Trends: Steelers vs Bears
- Chicago has covered the number in four straight meetings.
- Pittsburgh’s last three games have stayed under the total.
- Chicago is 7-1 straight up in its last eight games.
- The Bears are 6-2 against the spread over that same stretch.
- Five of Chicago’s seven wins have been by fewer than seven points.
Key Injuries and Notes: Pittsburgh vs Chicago
- Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers is doubtful with a wrist injury.
- Mason Rudolph likely to start for the Steelers.
- Chicago continues to win tight games behind late game execution.
ATS and Total Picks: PIT vs CHI
Chicago’s current form and Pittsburgh’s quarterback uncertainty point toward the home underdog, while the offensive matchup profile leans toward the over despite Pittsburgh’s recent totals history.
Spread Pick — Bears vs Steelers
- Pick: Chicago Bears +2.5
- Why: Chicago is 7-1 straight up in its last eight and has covered four straight in this series. Pittsburgh may be without Aaron Rodgers, limiting offensive reliability.
Total Pick — Pittsburgh vs Chicago
- Pick: Over 44.0
- Why: With Rudolph potentially opening up the Steelers offense and turnover prone quarterbacks on both sidelines, scoring opportunities should increase.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh vs Chicago
Chicago Bears 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 21
Chicago’s ability to stay in close games combined with Pittsburgh’s uncertainty at quarterback gives the Bears a measurable edge. Expect a competitive, higher scoring matchup compared to recent Steelers contests, with both teams finding opportunities created by aggressive defensive schemes and potential turnovers.
How to Bet Bears vs Steelers
Chicago bettors should target spreads at +2.5 or better, while Pittsburgh supporters should look for -2 or lower if Rodgers unexpectedly plays. Total bettors looking for the over should lock in anything at 44 or below before upward market movement.
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