Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) and the New England Patriots (1-1) renew their rivalry in the AFC on Sunday afternoon in this Steelers vs. Patriots prediction. These teams did not meet last season. Pittsburgh is coming off a 31-17 loss at home against the Seahawks, while New England won 33-27 on the road in Miami. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST. See below for out Steelers vs. Patriots prediction, and keep up with all of our best Free NFL Picks.
Pittsburgh Looks to Clean Up
The Pittsburgh Steelers had a shaky performance in their home opener last week and need to clean things up heading into Week 3. Against the Seahawks, they had several mental errors, including allowing Seattle to recover a kickoff in the endzone for a touchdown after their returner muffed the kick. Additionally, the Pittsburgh offense scored only three points in the second half and will need to improve on that side of the ball with their new quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers looks to retake his old form in this one, but the 41-year-old quarterback ranks only 23rd in the league in QBR at 45.9. Through two games, he has 447 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, but is no longer very mobile in the pocket and has only two rushing yards on the season. The ground game has been slow to start, as Jaylen Warren is their top back with just 42.5 yards per game, and Kenneth Gainwell is getting snaps but adding just 19.5 per game.
Warren is the team's top receiver with 108 yards so far, with newcomer DK Metcalf next up with 103 yards on seven catches. Calvin Austin III is in his third season with the team. The 26-year-old out of Memphis has cracked the starting lineup and has five catches for 92 yards. The defense has three sacks and two interceptions so far, with veteran corner Jalen Ramsey grabbing one of those interceptions. Rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon will make his debut here, with cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and linebacker Alex Highsmith missing the game with injuries.
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Patriots Fresh Off First Win
The New England Patriots and new head coach Mike Vrabel got their first win of the season last week as they took down the struggling Dolphins. Buffalo is still the heavy favorite in the division, but the second spot and a potential Wild Card spot is up for grabs between the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins. Quarterback Drake Maye accounted for three touchdowns in their win against Miami, as he looks to prove he can be the franchise quarterback for New England.
Maye is their 23-year-old quarterback from North Carolina, with good size at 6'4 "and 225 pounds. So far this season, he has 517 yards with three touchdowns and just one interception. He has two passing touchdowns and one on the ground last week against Miami to go with his 42 rushing yards on the season. Rhamondre Stevenson has been getting the bulk of the carries for the Patriots, but is getting just 34.5 yards per game, with rookie TreVeyon Henderson starting out slow with just 18.5 yards per game.
Stefon Diggs is their veteran receiver, leading the team with 10 catches; he has 89 yards but has yet to find the endzone. Kayshon Boutte is a young receiver out of LSU who has the most receiving yards with 119 and scored a touchdown against Miami. Their defense has nine sacks and two interceptions, with Harold Landry III already getting 3.5 sacks through just two games. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez is listed as questionable as he returns from his hamstring injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots picks
Spread pick and prediction for Steelers vs. Patriots
- Patriots +2.5 (5 units)
The Patriots are the home dog here, and we will take the points with New England and their new coach. Mike Vrabel has brought toughness and accountability to this team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots have recorded nine sacks through the first two games, while the Steelers' defense has just three. T.J. Watt has been quiet for Pittsburgh, as he has yet to record his first sack of the year. Pressure on the quarterback will play a big role here, as Aaron Rodgers can no longer quickly move out of the pocket to get away from rushers and will often take the sack instead of trying to outrun the defense. Drake Maye is coming off a strong showing against Miami and will lead his team to another strong outing here. Take the points.
Take New England with the points.
Over/Under Pick for Steelers vs. Patriots
- Under 44.5 (4 units)
The strength of each of these two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, and we will see a low-scoring battle on Sunday afternoon. Neither quarterback has been lighting up the scoreboard to start the season. Maye has been slightly better statistically, but is not yet the caliber of quarterback that we expect to come out and have a four or five-touchdown game. Aaron Rodgers looks like he will be in his last season in the league, and he was blaming teammates already after their Week 2 loss. With Tomlin and Vrabel leading these teams, expect a low-scoring and conservative approach on Sunday.
Take the under.
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