Ravens vs. Steelers Picks and Prediction for Sunday, January 4, 2026
On Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens will battle the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Week 18 NFL action. We have you ready to go with our Ravens vs. Steelers prediction, preview, and picks. Kickoff from Pittsburgh is at 8:20 p.m. ET.
The Ravens are 3.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 40.5 points scored.
These AFC North rivals played in Baltimore on December 7, a game the Steelers won 27-22. The Ravens outgained Pitt by over 100 total yards, dominating on the ground with 217 rushing yards, but trailed by 11 points in the fourth quarter. A couple of late calls went against the Ravens, helping the Steelers hold off their rally attempts to take sole possession of first place in the division.
Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 37-27. The Steelers are 7-3 straight-up and against the spread in their last ten matchups with the Ravens. The under was 8-2 in those games. If you want the Ravens vs. Steelers prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
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Can Ravens' Jackson rise to the occasion?
Baltimore (8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS, and 10-6 O/U) defeated Green Bay 41-24 in its previous game. The Ravens dominated the time of possession, holding the football for over 20 more minutes and running 30 more plays than the Packers. They methodically drove down the field, picking up 10 of their 14 third-down attempts and rushing for 307 yards on 53 carries (5.8 YPC). The Baltimore defense also forced two turnovers and held Green Bay to 79 rushing yards.
Eighth-year pro Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens offense with 2,311 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions. He has completed 63.7 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Jackson has also rushed for 340 yards and two scores. The Louisville product's top receiving targets are WR Zay Flowers (82 receptions for 1,073 yards and three TDs) and TE Mark Andrews (46 receptions for 408 yards and five TDs). Veteran RB Derrick Henry paces the Baltimore ground game with 287 carries for 1,469 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Baltimore scores 25.0 points per game (11th) and averages 330.5 total yards (17th), including 172.7 passing yards (28th) and 157.8 rushing yards (1st). The Ravens' defense gives up 23.3 points (18th) and 352.3 total yards (25th) per game, including 245.3 passing yards (29th) and 107.1 rushing yards (10th).
Baltimore Ravens Injury Report:
- WR Rashod Bateman (illness), LB Roquan Smith (hamstring), and LB Kyle Van Noy (quadriceps) are questionable to play on Sunday against the Steelers.
Steelers' defense has been a top-five unit at home
Pittsburgh (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, and 8-7-1 O/U) was upset by Cleveland last weekend, losing 13-6. The Steelers narrowly outgained the Browns and won the turnover battle (+2 margin), but were 3-for-15 on third down and 0-for-3 on fourth down. They were also 0-for-2 in the red zone. It was a frustrating outcome for Pitt fans, as a win would have ensured an AFC North title.
Veteran QB Aaron Rodgers leads the Pittsburgh passing attack with 3,028 yards, 23 touchdowns, and seven picks. He has completed 65.6 percent of his passes, averaging 6.7 yards per pass. Rodgers' top receiving targets are WR DK Metcalf (59 receptions for 850 yards and six TDs) and TE Pat Freiermuth (38 receptions for 435 yards and four TDs). The Steelers' run game is led by RB Jaylen Warren (197 carries for 892 yards and six TDs).
Pittsburgh scores 23.2 points per game (16th) and averages 300.4 total yards (26th), including 196.9 passing yards (22nd) and 103.5 rushing yards (25th). The Steelers' defense gives up 22.7 points (15th) and 356.8 total yards (27th) per game, including 245.3 passing yards (30th) and 111.6 rushing yards (11th).
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Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report:
- LB T.J. Watt (lung), LB Malik Harrison (knee), CB James Pierre (calf/illness), CB Brandin Echols (groin), and WR Calvin Austin III (hamstring) are questionable to play on Sunday against the Ravens.
Ravens vs. Steelers Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Ravens vs. Steelers
- Steelers +3.5 (5 Units)
This is a winner-takes-all matchup for the North division title and the final AFC playoff spot, but which team will cover the spread? While I believe that Baltimore will win the game, I recommend taking the Steelers ATS.
Pittsburgh has played at an elite level defensively at home (top five in DVOA) and typically plays well in this spot: as an underdog at home against a division rival. The Steelers have covered the spread at a 74 percent rate as a divisional underdog under HC Mike Tomlin, and 'dogs are 25-7-3 ATS (78%) in Ravens-Steelers games coached by Tomlin and John Harbaugh. Tomlin's teams also boast a 19-6-1 ATS (76%) record as home 'dogs of seven points or fewer after Week 5.
Last week's loss to the Browns was disappointing and humbling, but the Steelers' defense played well, and Watt is hopeful to return to the field for SNF. The offense will still be without suspended star WR D.K. Metcalf, but Rodgers should have a few tricks up his sleeve for this game. With his future playing status unclear, I expect the future Hall-of-Famer to give his all on Sunday. In short, I feel confident this game will be decided by one score, so take the points with Pitt.
Over/Under Pick for Ravens vs. Steelers
- Under 40.5 (4 Units)
Baltimore appears vulnerable offensively with Jackson's status unknown due to a nagging back injury. If he isn't close enough to 100 percent, the Steelers can load the box to contain Henry and make the Ravens too one-dimensional. The former MVP is a game-changer when healthy, but he'll be challenged by a stout Pittsburgh defense and winter weather conditions. Baltimore's defense is also playing better and will benefit from the absence of Metcalf. It's a shame when you consider how effective the Pittsburgh offense should have been with Metcalf and George Pickens this season, but neither will suit up for the home team on Sunday night.
The last eleven Ravens vs. Steelers games have averaged 34.5 PPG. In what is typically a tense and competitive affair, I lean towards the under, even with the total now down to 40.5 points.
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