Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Picks and Prediction, Sunday, October 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome, and we have you ready to go with our Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction. Kickoff from NOLA is at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Bucs are 3.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 46.5 points scored.
This is the first matchup of the season between these NFC South division rivals. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans twice last season, winning 51-27 on the road and 27-19 at home. The Buccaneers have won five of the previous six matchups with the Saints and are 6-4 in the last ten meetings (4-6 ATS). The under was 7-3 in those games.
If you want the Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
Can Tampa Bay bounce back on the road?
Tampa Bay (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, and 4-3 O/U) lost 24-9 to Detroit on Monday Night Football earlier this week. The Bucs have split their last four games after starting the season 3-0.
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Detroit thoroughly outplayed Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers were outgained by more than 200 yards in the first half and 379-251 in the game. The Lions dominated on the ground, rushing for 164 yards and 5.1 yards per carry, while the Bucs managed only 41 yards on the ground. TB was also a combined 6-for-21 on third and fourth down, plus six penalties and two turnovers.
“As a skill group, we didn’t connect on a lot of plays,” Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield said. "Once the defense knows we are going to have to pass, they can pin their ears back. That’s not a fair situation to the offensive line.”
Mayfield leads the Tampa Bay offense into action with 1,767 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt. The Oklahoma product's top receiving target is rookie WR Emeka Egbuka (31 receptions for 527 yards and five TDs). The Bucs' ground game is paced by RB Rachaad White (64 carries for 252 yards and four TDs).
Tampa Bay scores 24.9 points per game (13th) and averages 338.9 total yards (16th), including 239.3 passing yards (9th) and 99.6 rushing yards (23rd). The Buccaneers' defense allows 25.0 points (22nd) and 328.0 total yards (16th) per game, including 229.0 passing yards (21st) and 99.0 rushing yards (11th).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Football Injury Report: RB Bucky Irving, WR Chris Godwin, WR Mike Evans, OLB Haason Reddick, and OT Luke Haggard are out. DT Vita Vea (foot) is questionable to play against the Saints.
Saints are off to their worst start since 1999
New Orleans (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, and 3-4 O/U) lost 26-14 to Chicago last Sunday. The Saints have covered the spread in two of their previous four games.
Bad weather and the Bears' defense overwhelmed New Orleans, holding the visitors to 253 total yards and forcing four turnovers. The Saints were also a combined 3-for-12 on third and fourth down. Chicago dominated in the trenches, as its offensive line opened up for 222 rushing yards and its defensive line limited New Orleans to 44 yards on the ground. It was a day QB Spencer Rattler would like to forget, as he was sacked four times and tossed three interceptions. The Saints are off to their worst start since 1999, when they won just once in their first eight games.
“We can’t stop," New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara said of the team's struggles. "We got to find some energy, find some inspiration. Everybody got to just dig deep and find that want-to.”
The second-year pro Rattler has passed for 1,450 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He has completed 67.7 percent of his passing attempts, averaging 6.2 yards per pass. Rattler's top receiving target is WR Chris Olave (44 receptions for 440 yards and three TDs), and Kamara leads the Saints' run game with 342 rushing yards and one touchdown.
New Orleans scores 17.9 points per game (29th) and averages 297.9 total yards (23rd), including 197.7 passing yards (24th) and 100.1 rushing yards (22nd). The Saints' defense surrenders 26.6 points (27th) and 335.7 total yards (18th) per game, including 206.3 passing yards (11th) and 129.4 rushing yards (23rd).
New Orleans Saints Football Injury Report: RB Kendre Miller (ACL) and center Erik McCoy (biceps) were placed on the IR earlier this week. There are no other injuries to report for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Pick
Spread Pick for Buccaneers vs. Saints
- Saints +3.5 (5 Units)
This line has come down from 6.5 to 3.5 at most sportsbooks, as bettors were turned off by Tampa Bay's poor showing on Monday. Injuries have also been problematic for the Bucs, who are coming off a letdown showing on the big stage and are also in a potential lookahead spot with a bye week looming. On top of that, this is their second straight road game and third in four weeks. Tampa Bay's offense is missing several key playmakers, and while Mayfield has done his best with a decimated receiving group, he can only do so much.
New Orleans' defense has steadily improved, ranking 8th in EPA allowed per play since Week 5. The Saints' loss at Chicago looks worse on paper than it was, as well. Despite poor offensive play and turnovers that gave the Bears great field position, the defense held up well, holding them to 3-for-12 on third down and to two touchdowns in six red zone trips. While the home team's offense has been underwhelming, I'm backing them to cover the spread, especially with +4.5 still available at some shops.
Over/Under Pick for Buccaneers vs. Saints
- Under 46.5 (5 Units)
I prefer to take the points with home underdogs in divisional matchups, and I typically lean towards the under, as well. These teams are plenty familiar with each other. Plus, aside from their victory over San Francisco, the Bucs haven't won by more than a field goal, and the Saints have played most of their competition close.
The visitors are road-weary, looking ahead to a week off, and playing on short rest without several of their top skill position stars. The home team lacked a pulse offensively last weekend, with its ground game held under 50 yards and three interceptions through the air. The Saints also haven't generated explosive passing plays this season, with only 12 completions of 20 yards or more.
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