Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Picks and Prediction, September 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Sunday, the Tennessee Titans will take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in an AFC South division clash, and we have you ready to go with our Titans vs. Texans prediction. Kickoff from H-Town is at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Texans are seven-point spread favorites, and the game total is 39.5 points scored.
Tennessee and Houston split their two matchups last season, as the Titans won 32-27 in Houston and the Texans got their revenge in Nashville, winning 23-14. These division foes have split their last ten meetings, but Houston was 7-3 against the spread in those games. The over/under was also split 5-5. If you want the Titans vs. Texans prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
Titans seek bounce-back performance
Tennessee (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, and 2-1 O/U) was thoroughly beaten last week by Indianapolis, losing 41-20 as six-point underdogs. The Titans covered the nine-point spread in Week 1's 20-12 loss at Denver and failed to cover as 5.5-point dogs in their 33-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
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The Colts jumped on the Titans early in last week's game, taking a 17-3 lead in the first quarter. Tennessee struggled to move the football, averaging 4.7 yards per pass and 3.7 yards per rush. They were also penalized eight times, resulting in 68 lost yards. Indianapolis leaned on RB Jonathan Taylor, who scored three touchdowns, but QB Daniel Jones was also efficient (18-for-25 passing) through the air.
“We’re like, ’They don’t want to play today,” Colts WR Michael Pittman said of Tennessee. “And I think that’s how we found our edge today, is just mentally we thought that we wanted to play more than they did.”
The Titans are led by rookie QB Cam Ward, who has completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 506 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The number one overall pick's top receiving targets are TE Chig Okonkwo (12 receptions for 120 yards), WR Calvin Ridley (8 receptions for 111 yards), and WR Elic Ayomanor (10 receptions for 107 yards and two TDs). The Tennessee run game is paced by Tony Pollard, who has turned 54 carries into 197 yards (3.6 YPC) and one score.
The Titans score 17.0 points per game (28th) and average 222.3 total yards (31st), including 133.7 passing yards (32nd) and 88.7 rushing yards (28th). The Tennessee defense surrenders 31.3 points (30th) and 373.7 total yards (27th) per game, including 228.0 passing yards (22nd) and 145.7 rushing yards (29th).
Tennessee Titans Football Injury Report: OT JC Latham (hip) is out for Sunday's game against the Texans.
Houston needs more from its skill position players
Houston (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, and 0-3 O/U) fell 17-10 to Jacksonville as 1.5-point underdogs in its last game. The Texans also played close games against LA (14-9) and Tampa Bay (20-19), failing to cover as three-point dogs against the Rams and as 2.5-point favorites against the Buccaneers.
Houston managed only three first-half points last week at Jacksonville, failing to find the end zone until the final quarter of play. The Texans were 4-for-15 on third down and committed three costly turnovers, including WR Nico Collins' fumble with 3:58 to play, that swung the game in the Jags' favor. It was their first road loss at Jacksonville since 2017, and just their third loss in their last 15 games against their division rival.
“We give the ball to one of our best players, Nico,” Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans said. "We trust him with the football. He knows it. I know he hates it more than anyone else to have the ball taken away from him there. That was tough.”
The Texans are paced by QB C.J. Stroud, who has completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 599 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. The Ohio State product has mostly depended on Collins (14 receptions for 181 yards and two TDs) and TE Dalton Schultz (11 receptions for 96 yards) in the passing game; however, WR Christian Kirk is expected to contribute more after making his season debut last week (three receptions for 25 yards). Nick Chubb leads Houston's run game with 34 carries for 141 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans score 12.7 points per game (32nd) and average 267.3 total yards (29th), including 172.3 passing yards (26th) and 95.0 rushing yards (23rd). Houston's defense allows 17.0 points (5th) and 315.7 total yards (16th) per game, including 206.7 passing yards (13th) and 109.0 rushing yards (16th).
Houston Texans Football Injury Report: CB Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Titans vs. Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Titans vs. Texans
- Houston -7 (5 Units)
The Texans should win this game comfortably. The defense has allowed only 51 points, and that side of the ball should continue to thrive on Sunday against an anemic Titans offense. The visitors' offensive line (most sacks allowed in NFL) isn't capable of keeping the pocket clean for Ward, and Houston will get after him (nine sacks). Titans coach Brian Callahan handed off play-calling duties to QBs coach Bo Hardegree earlier this week, but the change isn't likely to boost an offense ranked 32nd in touchdowns allowed.
The Houston offense hasn't been effective, but I believe they'll make enough plays to comfortably cover the spread. They have played a good Rams team, an undefeated Bucs squad, and a division opponent in the Jaguars, so it's possible there's room for growth in the coming weeks. The Titans allowed three rushing touchdowns last game, making Chubb a good candidate to find the end zone on Sunday. Stroud will be efficient if the Texans can run the football, connecting often with Collins in the passing game. It wouldn't surprise me if Kirk gets more involved in his second game of the season, too.
This isn't the game of the week, but if you look past some of Houston's flaws, Texans -7 is an appealing wager.
Over/Under Pick for Titans vs. Texans
- Over 39.5 (4 Units)
If the Texans are more comfortable moving the chains on Sunday, this total will be too low. Houston is at home and plenty motivated to "get right" after starting 0-3. A season after making the playoffs, they are in must-win mode in Week 4. Stroud is more capable than he's looked, with poor offensive line play and the losses of Tank Dell and Joe Mixon as reasons for his dropoff. He should look more like the QB that took the NFL by storm a couple of seasons ago against a Tennessee defense that had no answers for the Colts last week.
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