Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 28, 2025
Washington (2-1) will be trying to pick up their first road win of the season when they visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon to face Atlanta (1-2) at 1 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Commanders vs. Falcons prediction. Want more NFL winners? Check out our award-winning NFL Predictions.
The Commanders are coming off a 41-24 win over Vegas as three-point favorites. The Falcons are coming off a 30-0 loss to Carolina as 4.5-point favorites.
Atlanta is 6-4 in its last 10 games against Washington.
Washington Going For Second Consecutive Win
The Commanders bounced back from their loss to Green Bay with a win over the Raiders, despite not having Jayden Daniels, who is dealing with a knee injury that will also keep him out of this game. They will try to keep the momentum going and pick up their second straight win when they play on Sunday.
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Washington averages 26.7 points per game, which is seventh in the league. They throw for 196.7 yards and rush for 157.3 yards per game.
Daniels has completed 60 percent of his passes for 433 yards and three touchdowns. Backup quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 71 percent of his passes for 207 yards and one touchdown against the Raiders. He also had one rushing touchdown.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team with 22 carries for 125 yards and two touchdowns, while Terry McLaurin leads the team with 149 receiving yards. He has also been ruled out of this game due to a quad issue.
Washington is giving up 19 points per game, which is 12th in the league. They are giving up 229 passing yards and 100.7 rushing yards per game.
Atlanta Trying To Bounce Back From Loss
The Falcons followed up their win over Minnesota with a blowout loss to a Carolina team that lost their first two games. They will try to bounce back from the embarrassing loss and get back to .500 with a win on Sunday. It was the first time that Atlanta was shut out in four years. The team responded by firing wide receiver coach Ike Hilliard.
Atlanta averages 14 points per game, which is 31st in the league. They throw for 199.3 yards and rush for 139.3 yards per game.
Michael Penix Jr. has completed 59 percent of his passes for 605 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Bijan Robinson leads the team with 47 carries for 239 yards. He also leads the team with 164 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Atlanta is giving up 19.7 points per game, which is 13th in the league. They are giving up 131 passing yards and 96.3 rushing yards per game.
Commanders vs. Falcons Pick
Point Spread Pick for Commanders vs. Falcons
- Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (4 Units)
The Commanders have won two of their three games, but the wins came against teams that have a combined 1-5 record. Even though the Falcons have only one win, their defense has been consistently good, with the best pass defense in the league and 10th-ranked run defense. The Commanders have the second-best ground game in the league, but will be without their starting quarterback and top receiver, which will allow the Falcons to focus on stopping the run.
Atlanta’s offense hasn’t looked impressive, but they’ve been able to run the ball effectively. The Commanders have the 12th-best run defense in the league, but they are 23rd against the pass, so expect Penix and the Falcons to air the ball out and pick up the win. Go with Atlanta to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Commanders vs. Falcons
- Under 43 (4 Units)
The Commanders played under the total in two of their last three games, while the Falcons played under the total in their last three games. Washington averages 26.7 points per game. They throw the ball 54 percent of the time, with the 20th-ranked passing attack in the league. They’re facing a team that has the top-ranked pass defense and is giving up 19.7 points per game. The Falcons average 14 points per game. They throw the ball 55 percent of the time with the 19th-ranked passing attack. They are facing a team that is 23rd against the pass and is giving up 19 points per game. Don’t expect these teams to score enough points to push the score over the total. The Commanders and Falcons played under the total in two of their last three meetings.
