Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Picks - October 5th, 2025
Use Code WWWC Sunday afternoon on the NFL gridiron, and we have a Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction locked and loaded for you. The Commanders are off a tough 34-27 loss at Atlanta, which dropped them to 2-2 on the year. The LA Chargers are off a 21-18 road loss to the Giants and they are now 3-1 on the year. These teams last met back in 2021, and the Bolts won that game on the road by a score of 2o-16. Which team will bounce back with a win in this one? Read on to see our Commanders vs Chargers prediction.
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Defense Struggles In Loss To The Falcons
The Commanders enter Week 5 at 2–2 after a 34–27 loss to Atlanta, where Marcus Mariota filled in for the injured Jayden Daniels and threw for 156 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Washington ran for 147 yards on just 22 carries — a strong 6.7 average — led by Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Deebo Samuel, who also added 72 receiving yards. The offense moved the ball well but couldn’t finish drives, and the defense allowed 307 passing yards on 76.9% completions. With Daniels expected to return from a knee injury, the Commanders get a boost in mobility and downfield accuracy heading into a road test against a pressure-heavy Chargers front.
Offensively, Washington ranks second in rushing (154.8 YPG), 12th in scoring (26.8 PPG), and 17th in total offense. Daniels has thrown for six touchdowns and rushed for two more in limited action, while Samuel and Jahan Dotson have combined for 412 receiving yards. The Commanders have committed just two turnovers and rank top 10 in yards per play (5.9), but penalties have been a problem — 30 flags for 223 yards through four games. The offensive line has held up well in run blocking but struggled in pass protection, especially on third downs. If Daniels is healthy and the backs stay efficient, Washington has the tools to control tempo and attack LA’s depleted edge rush.
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Defensively, the Commanders rank 24th in total defense (356.0 YPG), 27th against the pass (248.5 YPG), and 18th in scoring defense (22.8 PPG). They’ve allowed 10 touchdowns and are giving up 8.1 yards per pass attempt — third-worst in the NFL. The pass rush has been inconsistent, with 10 sacks total but half coming in one game against the Raiders. Coach Dan Quinn has hinted at dialing up more stunts and pressure packages to disrupt timing, especially with the Chargers missing both starting tackles. If Washington can generate pressure without blitzing and bottle up Omarion Hampton, they’ll have a chance to flip field position and steal momentum early.
Chargers Come Up Short Against The Giants
The Chargers enter Week 5 at 3–1 with one of the NFL’s most efficient defenses and a top-tier passing attack. They rank 5th in passing yards (249.0 YPG) and 8th in total offense (356.3 YPG), with Justin Herbert throwing for 996 yards and seven touchdowns through four games. Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer have emerged as reliable targets, while Omarion Hampton adds balance with 107.3 rushing yards per game. Despite ranking just 20th in scoring (22.0 PPG), LA has moved the ball consistently — the issue has been red zone execution and turnovers, with five giveaways and multiple stalled drives inside the 20. Herbert will likely not have his left tackle protecting his blindside, as Joe Alt (ankle) is not expected to play.
Defensively, LA has been elite. They rank 3rd in total defense (270.0 YPG), 5th against the pass (158.8 YPG), and 4th in scoring defense (17.8 PPG), allowing just five touchdowns all season. The pass rush has been disruptive, even with injuries up front, and the secondary has clamped down on deep shots, limiting yards after catch. Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu have combined for six sacks and 18 pressures, while the linebackers have held up well in coverage. The only concern is takeaways — just three through four games — but the Chargers have consistently won early downs and forced opponents into long-yardage situations.
Against Washington, LA’s defensive front will be key. The Commanders rank second in rushing but have struggled to protect Jayden Daniels, especially on third downs. Expect the Chargers to stack the box, force Daniels into quick reads, and test his mobility coming off a knee injury. Offensively, Herbert will need to avoid pressure and capitalize on a Washington defense that ranks 27th against the pass and allows 8.1 yards per attempt. If LA cleans up red zone execution and protects the ball, they’re well-positioned to control tempo and extend their strong start.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers Pick
Commanders vs Chargers Spread Pick
- Chargers -3 (4 Units)
Chargers -3 is a strong position in a matchup where LA’s elite defense and passing efficiency should expose Washington’s protection issues. The Commanders rank 27th against the pass and allow 8.1 yards per attempt — third-worst in the NFL — while Justin Herbert leads a top-five passing attack that’s averaging 249.0 yards per game. With Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer stretching the field and Omarion Hampton keeping defenses honest, LA has the weapons to attack all levels. Washington’s offensive line has struggled on third downs, and with Jayden Daniels returning from a knee injury, expect the Chargers’ front to dial up pressure and force quick decisions. Washington is also very banged up at wide receiver, with Terry McLaurin (leg) not expected to play for the second straight week.
Defensively, LA ranks third in total yards allowed and fourth in scoring defense, giving up just 17.8 points per game. They’ve allowed only five touchdowns all season and consistently win early downs, forcing opponents into long-yardage situations. Washington has leaned on its run game, but LA ranks sixth against the run and has the personnel to contain Daniels’ mobility. If the Chargers clean up red zone execution and protect Herbert just enough, they’re well-positioned to control tempo and cover the short number at home. With both statistical edge and matchup leverage, this is a spot where LA’s balance should pay off.
Commanders vs Chargers Over/Under Pick
- Under 47 (5 Units)
Under 47 makes sense in a matchup where both defenses are built to limit explosive plays and red zone conversions have been inconsistent. The Chargers rank 3rd in total defense and 4th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.8 points per game, while Washington has leaned heavily on its run game to shorten possessions and protect Jayden Daniels. LA’s offense ranks just 20th in scoring despite top-10 yardage, and both teams have struggled with penalties and stalled drives. With Daniels returning from injury and Herbert facing a strong pass rush, this sets up as a controlled, field-position battle that stays under the number.
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