Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday October 13 2026

Montreal returns to Bell Centre facing a Buffalo club coming off a 5-3 win over Florida the previous night. The Canadiens are 2-2-1, the Sabres 3-3-0, and the home team is priced as a fairly clear favorite. Buffalo's schedule is less attractive, but the injuries affecting both blue lines and the plus-money payout keep this from being a straightforward Canadiens wager. The game is more likely to turn on possession in the slot than on which club can keep its stars completely quiet.

Tage Thompson gives Buffalo a scoring threat that requires special attention on every shift, and Peyton Krebs and Josh Doan are projected alongside him. The Sabres can also roll forwards such as Josh Norris, Jack Quinn and Zach Benson into useful situations, which makes them more dangerous than a team dependent on one power-play unit. Buffalo is not without weaknesses: its defensive play has been uneven, and turnovers in the neutral zone have exposed its goalies. The Sabres need the puck moving north quickly to justify the road upset.

Montreal still has a talented first line of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky, with Lane Hutson driving creative puck movement from defense. Noah Dobson is alongside Hutson, and Chris Kreider adds a veteran finishing and screening presence elsewhere in the lineup. Yet the Canadiens are missing Ivan Demidov, Oliver Kapanen and Mike Matheson, so the attack must come from a narrower group. They won a 1-0 shootout game against Detroit Saturday, a reminder that Montreal can remain competitive without an offensive breakout.

Rasmus Dahlin suffered an upper-body injury Monday and did not accompany Buffalo to Montreal. Matt Grzelcyk is on injured reserve, while Alex Lyon, Conor Timmins and Jason Zucker are also unavailable. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is likely to start after replacing Colten Ellis during the Florida game. Montreal plans another start for Jacob Fowler after his recall from Laval; Samuel Montembeault remains injured. These are meaningful goalie and defense developments, not cosmetic roster changes, and neither side can assume its usual defensive pairs will be intact.

Buffalo's preferred matchup is Thompson against a Montreal pair that cannot both close his shooting lane and protect the weak-side passing option. Montreal, conversely, should force Buffalo's short-handed defense corps to retrieve repeated dump-ins, then use Hutson and Suzuki to change the angle of attack. The Sabres have to survive those cycles, especially when their second pair is on the ice. A clean first pass will matter as much as the quality of their finishing; lengthy shifts defending will erase the advantage of their forward depth.

The personnel situation also affects the transition game. With Dahlin missing, Buffalo loses a player who normally handles difficult first passes and gives Thompson clean possessions before a defense is organized. Other Sabres defenders must replace that skill collectively, rather than assuming one player can do everything. Montreal is trying to replace Matheson's minutes at the same time, creating pressure on Hutson and Dobson. That shared weakness may produce a game in which one well-executed breakout becomes more valuable than several minutes of otherwise harmless offensive-zone time. Buffalo has a chance if its supporting pairs survive.

Montreal was -155 in the afternoon market, with Buffalo +139, while a later sportsbook showed the Sabres closer to +130. That is a substantial spread in available underdog payout and argues for patience when selecting a book. The expected full-game total sits at 6.5. In a matchup featuring a Sabres defense missing Dahlin and a Canadiens unit without Matheson, a tighter three-goal script is possible, but seven goals is not a wild forecast. The moneyline is the cleaner expression of the Buffalo upside.

The obvious case against Buffalo is fatigue. The Sabres had to work through a physical game against Florida on Monday and then travel to face a rested rival. They are also asking Luukkonen to settle a crease that has endured a difficult opening week. Montreal's first line can punish even a short spell of defensive indecision. This is not a high-certainty favorite disguised as an underdog; the Sabres must withstand the home team's first surge and get enough possession to preserve their offensive legs.

At +130 or longer, Buffalo's scoring depth and Montreal's own injury problems make the visitors a worthwhile upset candidate. Thompson is the player most capable of changing the game without prolonged territorial dominance, and the Sabres need that kind of finishing here. The projected 4-3 road result assumes a close, open game in which Buffalo takes advantage of at least one Montreal defensive mistake. Do not chase the underdog if the price contracts sharply below the stated return.