Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, October 23, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Chicago Blackhawks face the Tampa Bay Lightning, with both teams looking to improve early on in the season. The Blackhawks are 3-2-2 and as a rebuilding team, they have overachieved to start the season. The Lightning are 1-3-2 and, as one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, they have surprisingly the worst record in the Eastern Conference. Who will win this matchup? Check out our Blackhawks vs Lightning prediction!
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Blackhawks are led by a great defense
The Blackhawks are off to a great start to the season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.14 goals per game. Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar have scored five goals and nine assists to lead the top line but the rest of the offense has stepped up as well. Teuvo Teravainen, Ryan Donato, and Tyler Bertuzzi have combined for six goals and 10 assists while defensemen Sam Rinzel and Wyatt Kaiser have added a goal and four assists from the point to open up the offense.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has carried them early on, allowing only 2.43 goals per game with only four goals in their last two games. Kaiser and Rinzel have combined for 1.2 defensive point shares to lead the top two pairings, while Matt Grzelcyk and Artyom Levshunov have combined for 1.0 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. Moreover, goaltender Spencer Knight has been incredible with a .937 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average on 158 shots with 5.8 goals saved above average.
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Tampa Bay has struggled on defense
The Lightning are off to a rough start with their offense struggling and scoring only 2.67 goals per game. Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point have combined for three goals and eight assists but the rest of the offense has struggled. Only five skaters have two goals or more, and opponents can limit the top-heavy offense as a result.
The offense has struggled but the defense has let the Lightning down, allowing 3.50 goals per game. Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh have led the top two pairings but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net at will. In addition, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled with a .886 save percentage and a 3.50 goals-against average on 123 shots.
Blackhawks vs Lightning Pick
Money Line Pick For Blackhawks vs Lightning
- Blackhawks +1.5 (+105) (4 units)
The Lightning look poised to step up on their home ice, but I see the Blackhawks covering the spread and possibly pulling up the upset as a team that’s gotten off to a strong start. The Blackhawks, who average 3.14 goals per game, should pile on the goals against the Lightning, who allow 3.50 goals per game, with Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Blackhawks, who allow only 2.43 goals per game, should limit the Lightning offense with Sam Rinzel, Wyatt Kaiser, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Spencer Knight to make plenty of big saves. The Blackhawks should cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset on the road while providing great odds in the process.
Over/Under Pick For Blackhawks vs Lightning
- Under 6.5 (5 Units)
The Blackhawks are led by their defense, and I see this game being a low-scoring one from the first period. The Lightning should limit the Blackhawks' offense with Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to make plenty of big saves. The Blackhawks, who have allowed only four goals in their last two games, should eliminate the Lightning offense, which averages only 2.67 goals per game, with Sam Rinzel, Wyatt Kaiser, Matt Grzelcyk, and the rest of the defensive unit forcing turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone while goaltender Spencer Knight blanks the shots on the net. The Under should cover in a low-scoring game with both defenses stepping up.
Take the Under on 6.5 goals.
The Blackhawks face the Lightning with both teams looking to improve on rocky starts to the season.
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