Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday October 13 2026

Colorado and Dallas meet in one of Tuesday's best games, but the pregame news has materially changed its pricing. The Avalanche are 3-2-0 and averaging an NHL-best 5.20 goals, while Dallas is 2-2-1 and has struggled to turn chances into scoring. The matchup would usually be framed around Colorado's elite attack against the Stars' top defensemen. Instead, Cale Makar is unavailable for personal reasons, leaving the Avalanche without the player who ties their offense and defensive transitions together.

Nathan MacKinnon has ten points through five games and continues to lead one of the league's most dangerous first lines with Martin Necas and Artturi Lehkonen. Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri provide another scoring layer, and Colorado has added Jaden Schwartz to its forward depth. But the Avalanche's early results have included significant goals against, and their power play and defensive details have been inconsistent. Removing Makar further reduces their ability to recover loose pucks and launch a second wave after the first attack stalls.

Dallas is capable of playing the game in a much different shape. Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz can attack from structured possessions, while Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston lead another talented offensive group. The Stars' defense is anchored by Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley, giving the home team players able to defend MacKinnon's speed without abandoning offense. Jake Oettinger has been exceptionally strong early, recording two shutouts with excellent underlying save numbers. Dallas does not need to match Colorado goal for goal if it can keep a cleaner defensive structure.

The roster changes cut both ways. Colorado has confirmed that Makar will miss the game while awaiting the birth of his twins, and Mackenzie Blackwood is listed to start. Dallas has lost Matt Duchene for roughly three months after core surgery and is missing Joel Kiviranta. The Stars nevertheless retain their primary centers and main defensive pairings. Colorado's defense will be spread across Devon Toews, Sam Malinski, Brett Kulak and other available defenders, which creates a difficult assignment against a Dallas attack that can roll quality forwards into multiple matchups.

Dallas should resist being drawn into open-ice exchanges where MacKinnon accelerates through the middle with support. The Stars want controlled breakouts, a strong backcheck and enough puck possession to limit the number of Colorado rushes. Without Makar, the Avalanche may find it harder to transition immediately after a defensive stop. Dallas can also use Johnston and Rantanen to target Colorado's less established pairings. Both teams have scoring talent, but the Stars' best case is based on structure and goaltending rather than volume alone.

The game also has a significant emotional component because Rantanen faces his former Colorado teammates as Dallas tries to establish itself against a division rival. That history is less important to the wager than the positioning of Rantanen and Johnston against Colorado's altered defensive pairs, but it can influence which line draws the most difficult assignments. Dallas should try to keep its scoring threats separated rather than allowing Colorado to concentrate all its best defenders on one unit. The Stars need to create enough opportunities to make Oettinger's early performances an advantage rather than their entire plan.

Earlier posted odds initially showed Colorado +105 and Dallas -115, while a subsequent sportsbook market moved toward Avalanche -102 and Stars -118. That adjustment created a more interesting home price because the news of Makar's absence strengthens the Dallas case. The total sits at six, though both teams have the players to exceed it. The moneyline avoids needing to know which version of Colorado's defense will show up for a full game; Dallas only needs to earn a narrow victory with its own strong goaltending.

The obvious danger is MacKinnon. He can make even a good defensive plan look irrelevant when he gets behind coverage, and Colorado's forward depth can still score without Makar. Dallas has also been inconsistent enough offensively to fall behind despite a good goaltending performance. Betting the Stars therefore requires trusting them to finish some of the chances their defense helps create. It does not justify assuming Oettinger can keep Colorado to a single goal, especially with several elite finishers still available.

Dallas is the preferred side at -120 or better. Oettinger's form and Colorado's loss of Makar tilt an otherwise nearly even matchup toward the home team. A 4-3 Dallas win reflects the Avalanche's ability to create offense while giving the Stars enough finishing to exploit the missing defenseman. This is one of the stronger personnel-based handicaps on the card, but still a narrow moneyline play rather than an invitation to take a Dallas puck line.