Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild Picks, Prediction and Odds Game 4
Use Code WWWC Colorado leads Minnesota 2-1 entering Game 4, but the Wild's 5-1 Game 3 statement makes this matchup considerably more competitive than the series price suggests. Special teams, goaltending and injuries on both blue lines are about to decide whether the Avalanche close the door on the road or this becomes a real series heading back to Denver. For more NHL picks on the rest of the playoff slate, we have you covered, but this Game 4 spot in Minnesota deserves a deeper look because there is value on both sides of the card.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Colorado -134
- Total Pick: Over 6.5
- Projected Final Score: Colorado 4, Minnesota 3
Odds and Line Movement
Colorado has held favorite status all the way through the betting cycle, with the moneyline bouncing between -118 and -134 since release. The total has climbed from 6 to 6.5 and stayed there through repeated re-pricing on the juice. Public money has heavily backed the Avalanche, while the Over has trended up on percentages as the series-to-date pace has trended that direction. Here is the complete picture.
Opening Odds
| Date | Time | COL | MIN | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | 11:42:10PM | -115 | -104 | 6½ -102 / 6½ -120 |
Current Odds
| Date | Time | COL | MIN | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 07:25:31AM | -134 | +112 | 6½ -102 / 6½ -120 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Colorado | Minnesota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 07:25:31AM | -134 | +112 | COL 79%, COL 65% |
| 05/11 | 07:25:25AM | -130 | +108 | COL 79%, COL 65% |
| 05/11 | 07:25:19AM | -130 | +112 | COL 79%, COL 65% |
| 05/11 | 07:25:11AM | -134 | +112 | COL 79%, COL 65% |
| 05/11 | 07:24:48AM | -128 | +108 | COL 79%, COL 65% |
| 05/11 | 03:09:24AM | -130 | +108 | COL 83%, COL 77% |
| 05/11 | 03:09:17AM | -128 | +108 | COL 83%, COL 77% |
| 05/11 | 03:04:29AM | -128 | +106 | COL 83%, COL 77% |
| 05/11 | 03:04:03AM | -130 | +108 | COL 83%, COL 77% |
| 05/11 | 02:12:29AM | -132 | +110 | COL 82%, COL 75% |
| 05/11 | 12:58:00AM | -130 | +108 | COL 75%, COL 67% |
| 05/11 | 12:57:43AM | -126 | +105 | COL 75%, COL 67% |
| 05/10 | 11:12:52PM | -130 | +108 | COL 76%, COL 84% |
| 05/10 | 11:12:32PM | -128 | +106 | COL 76%, COL 84% |
| 05/10 | 09:29:45AM | -125 | +104 | COL 100%, COL 100% |
| 05/10 | 09:29:38AM | -120 | +100 | COL 100%, COL 100% |
| 05/09 | 11:53:46PM | -118 | -102 | |
| 05/09 | 11:53:35PM | -120 | +100 | |
| 05/09 | 11:42:10PM | -115 | -104 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 07:25:31AM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -120 | OV 75%, OV 62% |
| 05/11 | 07:25:19AM | 6½ -104 | 6½ -118 | OV 75%, OV 62% |
| 05/11 | 07:24:48AM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -120 | OV 75%, OV 62% |
| 05/11 | 03:09:24AM | 6½ +100 | 6½ -122 | OV 72%, OV 66% |
| 05/11 | 03:04:29AM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -120 | OV 72%, OV 66% |
| 05/11 | 03:04:03AM | 6½ -104 | 6½ -118 | OV 72%, OV 66% |
| 05/11 | 12:58:00AM | 6½ +100 | 6½ -122 | UN 76%, OV 60% |
| 05/11 | 12:57:53AM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -120 | UN 76%, OV 60% |
| 05/10 | 11:12:53PM | 6½ +102 | 6½ -124 | UN 78%, OV 50% |
| 05/10 | 09:30:44AM | 6½ +100 | 6½ -122 | |
| 05/10 | 09:29:45AM | 6½ -104 | 6½ -118 | |
| 05/10 | 09:29:38AM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -120 | |
| 05/10 | 12:02:29AM | 6½ +100 | 6½ -122 | |
| 05/09 | 11:53:54PM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -120 |
Avalanche vs Wild Key Matchups and Handicap
The Avalanche finished the regular season 55-16-11 and remain the deeper team, with Nathan MacKinnon driving the matchup after a 127-point season that included 53 goals and 74 assists. MacKinnon has also been the most dangerous Colorado finisher in this series, and even in Game 3's loss he scored on the power play, which is important because special teams have become a major swing factor through three games.
Minnesota answered in Game 3 with two power play goals of their own, getting those goals from Quinn Hughes and Ryan Hartman, while Kirill Kaprizov opened the scoring and later assisted on Hughes' goal. Kaprizov's 89-point regular season and current playoff form give the Wild the elite shot-maker they need to punish Colorado penalties, and Hughes' puck movement has helped Minnesota create clean looks even during stretches when the Avalanche control five-on-five play.
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The concern for the Wild is that Colorado still generated 36 shots in Game 3, won 61.5% of the faceoffs, and has enough offensive depth to rebound quickly if Minnesota's penalty kill cracks. That kind of underlying possession profile in a losing effort is exactly the type of bounce-back signal the betting market is pricing in by keeping Colorado around -130 on the moneyline.
Still, the Wild are home again, Jesper Wallstedt just stopped 35 shots in a strong Game 3 performance, and Minnesota's 39 hits showed it can make this series physically uncomfortable for the Avalanche. The handicap angle here is that Colorado is more likely to win straight up, but the rink-tilting offense from MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri combined with a Kaprizov-led Wild attack points toward a high-event hockey game rather than a low-scoring grind.
Betting Trends COL vs MIN
- Colorado leads the series 2-1 with games of 9, 7 and 6 combined goals.
- The Avalanche generated 36 shots and won 61.5% of faceoffs in Game 3 despite losing 5-1.
- Minnesota scored two power play goals in Game 3 from Quinn Hughes and Ryan Hartman.
- Kirill Kaprizov has scored and added an assist in Game 3 to lead Minnesota's offensive surge.
- Nathan MacKinnon has continued to produce, including a power play goal in Game 3's loss.
- Public money is sitting at 79% on Colorado on the moneyline.
- The Over has now hit on the betting percentage side at 75% of money.
Key Injuries and Notes COL vs MIN
- Colorado Avalanche: Defenseman Josh Manson is listed day-to-day, which could affect the Avs' physical defensive depth and net-front coverage.
- Minnesota Wild: Jonas Brodin is day-to-day, Joel Eriksson Ek is day-to-day, and Charlie Stramel is out.
- Brodin's status is especially meaningful against a Colorado attack that can roll MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog and Kadri.
- Eriksson Ek's absence or limitation would hurt Minnesota's matchup game, faceoff options and defensive-zone reliability.
- Jesper Wallstedt stopped 35 shots in a strong Game 3 performance for the Wild.
Avalanche vs Wild Moneyline and Total Picks
Backing Colorado on the moneyline at -134 captures the value of the Avalanche being the more talented, deeper roster with a Game 3 underlying performance that suggested they were closer to winning that game than the 5-1 final indicated. With Minnesota's defensive injury concerns potentially impacting Brodin and Eriksson Ek, the matchup tilts even more toward MacKinnon and Co. controlling the game's offensive flow and grinding out a road win to take a 3-1 series lead.
On the total, the series has already produced 9, 7 and 6 goals across three games, and the betting public has caught up with that pace as the Over has climbed to 75% of money. Even with that public lean, the matchup math supports the position: special teams have produced goals on both sides, both top lines are scoring at high rates, and Minnesota's pivot to ride Wallstedt at home will likely require a few high-danger saves and a few that get through. Take Over 6.5 in a game that should run hot from puck drop.
- Moneyline Pick: Colorado -134
- Total Pick: Over 6.5
Final Score Prediction
- Colorado 4, Minnesota 3
Expect Minnesota to push the pace early with home-ice energy and Kaprizov continuing to lead the offensive charge, but Colorado's depth, MacKinnon's two-way impact and Makar's puck movement should be the difference in a tight, high-event game that finishes with the Avalanche pulling away late or burying an empty-netter to clear 6.5 and secure a 3-1 series stranglehold.
How to Bet Avalanche vs Wild
Game 4 in Minnesota is the kind of playoff hockey spot where in-game and period betting markets matter just as much as the full-game number, especially with the Over leaning the way it has and both special teams producing goals. Shopping for the best price on Colorado moneyline is critical because the juice can swing meaningfully across books on a -130 to -134 favorite, and finding -130 or better can be the difference over a long playoff slate. If you do not have access to traditional sportsbooks in your state, or you want to play around free-to-play markets on this matchup, social sportsbooks are available nationwide and carry full playoff hockey markets, including moneylines, totals and period bets.
For new bettors who want a low-risk way to get involved with the rest of the Avalanche-Wild series, take advantage of the fliff promo code to add value to your first deposit and ride the Colorado moneyline or Over 6.5 with extra Fliff Coins in your bankroll. Whether you are firing the moneyline, sprinkling on Kaprizov or MacKinnon player props, or playing the Over with confidence, having multiple platforms and the right pricing is what separates a winning weekend from a frustrating one.
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