Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Pick and Prediction for Monday January 5, 2026
The Colorado Avalanche are traveling to Tampa to face the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena. The game has a puck drop time of 7:00 PM and will be available for fans to stream on ESPN+. This heavyweight matchup features the league-leading Avalanche visiting a red-hot Lightning squad that has been climbing the Atlantic Division standings. For more great NHL picks, find our free NHL picks.
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Colorado Looks to Extend Dominant Road Run
The Colorado Avalanche enter this matchup with a league-best record of 31-3-7. They have been nearly unbeatable over the last month, posting a 9-1-0 record in their last ten games. Colorado is coming off a tight 2-1 victory over the Florida Panthers on January 4, a win that underscored their ability to prevail in low-scoring defensive battles just as easily as track meets. On the road this season, the Avalanche have been exceptional, carrying a 14-3-5 record.
Statistically, the Avalanche are the most potent offensive team in the NHL, averaging a staggering 4.00 goals per game. Their defense has been equally elite, surrendering just 2.17 goals against per contest. Colorado’s power play is currently converting at a 16.3% rate, while their penalty kill is a major strength, successfully thwarting 85.6% of opponent opportunities. They lead the league in shot generation, averaging 34.5 shots per game while limiting opponents to 26.7.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
The Avalanche crease has been anchored by S. Wedgewood, who has stepped into a primary role with 18 wins, 2 losses, and 4 overtime losses, sporting a 2.17 GAA and a .918 save percentage. He is supported by M. Blackwood, who has recorded 13 wins, 1 loss, and 1 overtime loss with a 2.07 GAA and a .924 save percentage. Young netminder T. Miner has also seen limited action, posting a 2.12 GAA and a .909 save percentage in his two appearances.
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Gabriel Landeskog (LW): Day-To-Day - Est. Return Jan 16
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Devon Toews (D): Day-To-Day - Est. Return Jan 16
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Joel Kiviranta (LW): Day-To-Day - Est. Return Jan 8
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Mackenzie Blackwood (G): IR - Est. Return Jan 8
Lightning Aim for Seventh Straight Victory
The Tampa Bay Lightning return home with an overall record of 25-13-3 and are currently riding a six-game winning streak. Their most recent performance was a dominant 7-3 road victory over the San Jose Sharks on January 3, highlighted by a hat trick from defenseman Darren Raddysh. While the Lightning have been dangerous lately, they are looking to improve their home record at Benchmark International Arena, where they currently sit at 11-9-0.
From a team stats perspective, Tampa Bay features a top-tier offense that averages 3.44 goals for and 2.66 goals against per game. Their power play is more efficient than Colorado's, clicking at a 19.5% success rate, while their penalty kill is also reliable at 83.3%. The Lightning average 27.4 shots on goal per game and allow 26.6, illustrating a balanced approach that has seen them score nearly four goals per game over their last ten outings.
In goal, the Lightning rely on the perennial Vezina candidate A. Vasilevskiy, who has earned 16 wins, 7 losses, and 2 overtime losses this season with a 2.36 GAA and a .912 save percentage. Veteran backup J. Johansson has been a reliable secondary option, posting 9 wins, 6 losses, and 1 overtime loss with a 2.83 GAA and an .894 save percentage.
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Scott Sabourin (RW): IR - Est. Return Jan 6
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Ryan McDonagh (D): IR - Est. Return Jan 10
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Victor Hedman (D): IR - Est. Return Feb 1
Analysis & Betting Picks
Avalanche vs Lightning Pick
- Moneyline: Colorado Avalanche (-125)
This is a clash of titans, but Colorado’s overall depth and league-leading defense give them the edge. While Tampa Bay is on a hot streak, the Avalanche have been more consistent across the entire season and have shown they can win on the road in any environment. With Victor Hedman sidelined for the Lightning, Colorado's elite offense led by Nathan MacKinnon should be able to exploit the gaps in Tampa's defensive rotation.
Avalanche vs Lightning Total Pick
- Total: Under 6.5 (-120)
Despite the high-powered offenses on both sides, both teams feature top-five goaltending and penalty kill units. In high-stakes matchups between Stanley Cup contenders, the play often tightens up defensively. Given that Colorado allows the fewest goals per game in the league and Vasilevskiy is back in elite form, expect a playoff-style atmosphere where goals are earned rather than given.
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