Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Picks and Prediction for Thursday, December 11, 2025
The Dallas Stars (21-5-5) head to Minnesota on Thursday night to face the Wild (16-9-5) in a matchup between two strong Western Conference teams. Dallas continues to dominate on the road, while Minnesota has been steady at home. Coming into this game, Dallas is listed at -140 and the total at 6. You can also check out more free NHL picks and basketball predictions on Winners and Whiners
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Dallas favored on the road
Dallas enters this matchup as one of the most balanced teams in the NHL, producing offense efficiently while maintaining steady defensive play. The Stars average 3.41 goals per gam, and allow only 2.51, which is fourth best in the NHL on both ends. The Stars don’t rely on heavy shot volume, generating just 25.6 shots per game (26th), but their 13.35% shooting percentage remains the best in the NHL, and their 1.35 Scoring Efficiency Ratio is third.
Defensively, Dallas limits opponents to 27.8 shots against per game (15th), and their goaltending has been dependable all season. Jake Oettinger, who is expected to start, comes in at 14-4-2 with a 2.49 GAA and .909 save percentage, continuing his reputation as one of the most reliable netminders in the West. He’s been especially sharp on the road, where Dallas is on a 6-0 run against teams with winning home records and 5-0 against Western Conference opponents.
Strong season for Wild
Minnesota has been playing well and their 8-3-4 at-home record keeps it in contention, but their statistical profile is more uneven. The Wild average 2.73 goals per game (26th), generating slightly more shots than Dallas at 27.9 (17th), but their 9.79% shooting percentage (26th) limits their scoring ceiling. They depend more on sustained offensive zone pressure than finishing ability, and that becomes difficult against tight-checking, structured teams like Dallas.
Defensively, Minnesota allows 30.0 shots per game (27th), which is not ideal against a Stars team that thrives on shot quality. Their opponent's shooting percentage of 8.87% (2nd) keeps them steady, but the volume they give up remains a concern.
Expected starter Filip Gustavsson has had an up-and-down season but remains capable of big performances. He enters at 8-8-3 with a 2.67 GAA, .908 save percentage, and 2 shutouts. His numbers are solid, but he hasn’t provided the same consistency as Oettinger. Minnesota however, has benefited from rest, going 4-0 in their last four games after two days off, but they’re just 1-4 in their last five Thursday games.
Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild Predictions
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Stars vs Wild Moneyline Pick
- Dallas Stars -140 (4 Units)
Dallas comes in with substantial advantages on offense and goaltending. Jake Oettinger gives the Stars a dependable presence in net, and his consistency pairs perfectly with Dallas’ disciplined road style. The Stars find ways to win without needing high shot volume, and their 6-0 road run against winning home teams reinforces their ability to show up in tough environments.
Minnesota remains strong at home, but its scoring inconsistency and heavier defensive workload make this matchup difficult, especially with Gustavsson facing one of the NHL’s more efficient offenses.
Dallas is the side here.
Stars vs Wild Total Pick
- Under 6 Prediction (5 Units)
Both teams trend heavily toward the under, and the goaltending matchup supports that. Oettinger has been steady with a 2.49 GAA, and Gustavsson, despite inconsistency, still holds a 2.67 GAA with respectable save numbers. Minnesota has been one of the league’s most dependable under teams, hitting the under in five straight overall, 10 of their last 12 games against Western Conference teams, and seven of their last eight at home.
Dallas also slows games down on the road, especially when facing strong defensive opponents. With both teams allowing under 2.7 goals per game and neither team pushing extreme shot volume, this sets up as another lower-scoring matchup.
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