Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks Pick and Prediction for Thursday January 1 2026
Get ready for a Central Division showdown to start the New Year as the Dallas Stars visit the Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center on Thursday at 8:30pm ET. Dallas (25-8-7, 13-2-5 Away) enters 2026 as one of the league's elite road teams, though they are looking to bounce back from a 4-1 loss to Buffalo on New Year's Eve.
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The Blackhawks (14-18-7, 7-8-4 Home) return home following a 3-2 shootout loss to the Islanders on Monday. These teams just met on December 27, where Chicago pulled off a 4-3 shootout upset in Dallas. The Stars are heavy favorites at -192 on the moneyline, with the total set at 5.5. Check out more free NHL picks at Winners and Whiners.
Rantanen and Robertson leading Stars' elite attack
Dallas enters 2026 boasting the most lethal offense in the Western Conference, currently averaging 3.49 goals per game. Their power play is the undisputed engine of their success, converting at a league-leading 30.6% clip. Despite a recent 1-3-1 stretch, the Stars remain just points away from the top of the conference and have been nearly unbeatable in regulation on the road this season.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
The attack is powered by Mikko Rantanen, who leads the team with 54 points (15G, 39A). Rantanen has been a revelation since his blockbuster arrival last season, and his 39 assists highlight his role as the primary playmaker on the top unit. He is joined by Jason Robertson, the team's leading goal-scorer with 23 goals. Robertson's 9 power-play goals make him a constant threat that Chicago struggled to contain in their previous meeting.
Defensively, the Stars are anchored by Miro Heiskanen, who is logging a massive 26:02 of ice time per game. Heiskanen’s mobility allows Dallas to transition quickly, and his 34 points make him one of the most productive blueliners in the league. However, the Stars have been thin lately with Tyler Seguin on long-term injured reserve, forcing younger players like Mavrik Bourque into more prominent roles.
In net, Jake Oettinger is expected to start. "Otter" has 16 wins on the season with a 2.51 GAA and a .910 save percentage. While he was beaten in the shootout by Chicago last week, he remains one of the most reliable "bounce-back" goalies in the NHL. Behind him, Casey DeSmith has provided elite relief with a 2.33 GAA, giving the Stars one of the strongest goaltending duos in the Central.
Bedard and Knight fueling Chicago's resurgence
The Blackhawks enter 2026 showing significant progress in their rebuild, having already surpassed last year's win pace. While they sit at 14-18-7, they have become a "giant killer" lately, taking points from high-end teams like Dallas and the Islanders. Chicago's game plan revolves around a high-pressure defensive system that has seen them allow a respectable 25.1 shots per game at home.
The face of the franchise, Connor Bedard, continues to lead the way with 44 points (19G, 25A). Bedard leads the team in both goals and points, and his 103 shots on goal demonstrate his aggressive offensive mentality. He is officially listed as a game-time decision due to a minor ailment, but he is expected to suit up for this high-profile matinee as he chases his 20th goal of the campaign.
The most improved area for Chicago has been their goaltending. Spencer Knight, acquired in the Seth Jones trade last season, has emerged as a legitimate starter. Knight has a 2.62 GAA and a .910 save percentage, keeping the Blackhawks competitive in games where they are outshot. His ability to track the puck through traffic will be essential against a Dallas team that leads the league in high-danger scoring chances.
Chicago’s main obstacle tonight is their lack of offensive depth. Beyond Bedard, the team has struggled to find consistent secondary scoring, averaging just 2.74 goals per game. With Jason Dickinson listed as day-to-day, the Blackhawks will need a massive performance from their penalty kill (83.6%) to prevent the Stars' power play from dictating the outcome of the game.
Moneyline pick for Stars vs. Blackhawks
- Dallas Stars ML (-192)
Revenge is on the menu for Dallas tonight. After dropping a shootout to Chicago less than a week ago, the Stars will be highly motivated to prove why they are the class of the Central Division. The talent gap between the Stars' top-six and the Blackhawks' depth is significant, especially with Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson playing at an elite level. While Spencer Knight gives Chicago a chance, Oettinger is the more seasoned winner, and the Stars' 13-2-5 road record is too dominant to bet against.
Total pick for Stars vs. Blackhawks
- Over 5.5 (-125)
While the previous meeting stayed relatively tight, the Stars' offense is due for a breakout after being held to one goal yesterday. Dallas has seen the "Over" hit in five of their last seven road games against Central Division opponents. Between Robertson’s finishing ability and Bedard’s playmaking for Chicago, there is enough star power on the ice to clear the 5.5-goal mark, especially if the Stars' league-best power play gets multiple opportunities.
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