Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Picks, Prediction and Odds For April 25 2026
Use Code WWWC Dallas heads into Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead and all the momentum after stealing Game 3 in double overtime, while Minnesota faces the kind of bounce-back spot that tests how a team handles real adversity. With both power plays clicking, plenty of skill on the ice, and a Wild team running out of margin for error, this Saturday matchup has all the makings of another high-event playoff battle. For more NHL picks and analysis throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs, our experts deliver sharp angles on every series.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Dallas Stars +114
- Total Pick: Over 5.5
- Projected Final Score: Stars 4, Wild 2
Odds and Line Movement
This line has bounced around all week, with Dallas opening as a -250 favorite at one point on 04/23 before the market settled into Minnesota as the home favorite. The current price has Minnesota at -137 with Dallas at +114, and public money has hammered the Wild moneyline at 91% of dollars and 84% of tickets. The total has been bet steadily toward the under, which is the public's lean despite three straight high-event games.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas | +106 | 5.5 -140 (Over) |
| Minnesota | -128 | 5.5 +114 (Under) |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas | +114 | 5.5 -134 (Over) |
| Minnesota | -137 | 5.5 +110 (Under) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Dallas | Minnesota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/25 | 05:53:01AM | +114 | -137 | MIN 91%, MIN 84% |
| 04/25 | 05:52:39AM | +112 | -134 | MIN 91%, MIN 84% |
| 04/24 | 10:37:50AM | +115 | -138 | MIN 55%, DAL 50% |
| 04/24 | 10:37:27AM | +112 | -134 | MIN 55%, DAL 50% |
| 04/24 | 10:37:03AM | +114 | -137 | MIN 55%, DAL 50% |
| 04/23 | 10:21:47AM | +114 | -134 | MIN 55%, DAL 50% |
| 04/23 | 09:00:04AM | +114 | -137 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 04/23 | 08:59:23AM | +114 | -134 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 04/23 | 07:45:08AM | +110 | -132 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 04/23 | 07:44:32AM | -250 | +202 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 04/23 | 02:21:10AM | +110 | -132 | |
| 04/23 | 02:20:48AM | +108 | -130 | |
| 04/23 | 02:05:29AM | +112 | -134 | |
| 04/23 | 02:01:44AM | +114 | -137 | |
| 04/23 | 01:57:06AM | +106 | -128 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/25 | 05:53:14AM | 5.5 -134 | 5.5 +110 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/25 | 05:52:58AM | 5.5 -132 | 5.5 +108 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/24 | 10:37:18AM | 5.5 -134 | 5.5 +110 | |
| 04/24 | 10:37:03AM | 5.5 -132 | 5.5 +108 | |
| 04/23 | 08:59:23AM | 5.5 -138 | 5.5 +112 | |
| 04/23 | 08:00:55AM | 5.5 -134 | 5.5 +110 | |
| 04/23 | 07:44:32AM | |||
| 04/23 | 02:21:10AM | 5.5 -134 | 5.5 +110 | |
| 04/23 | 02:20:48AM | 5.5 -132 | 5.5 +108 | |
| 04/23 | 02:20:20AM | 5.5 -138 | 5.5 +112 | |
| 04/23 | 02:14:08AM | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +106 | |
| 04/23 | 02:01:45AM | 5.5 -142 | 5.5 +116 | |
| 04/23 | 01:57:06AM | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +114 |
Stars vs Wild Key Matchups and Handicap
Stars
Dallas enters Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead after a 4-3 double-overtime win, and the Stars have won two straight, 4-2 and 4-3, after Minnesota's 6-1 Game 1 statement. Dallas' special teams are becoming the defining edge: the Stars scored three power-play goals in Game 3, including Wyatt Johnston's double-overtime winner, and finished the regular season with a 28.6% power play compared with Minnesota's 25.2%.
That matters because this series has been physical and penalty-driven, and Dallas has more high-end finishers to punish mistakes, led by Jason Robertson's 96-point regular season, Mikko Rantanen's 55 assists, Johnston's net-front power-play role, and Matt Duchene's timely scoring. The team-stat profile shows Dallas averaged 3.33 goals and allowed 2.71 during the regular season, giving the Stars a clear edge in goal differential heading into this game.
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Wild
Minnesota still has enough offensive punch to answer, especially with Kirill Kaprizov coming off a 45-goal, 89-point season and Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes, and Marcus Johansson all factoring into the Game 3 scoring. The Wild averaged 3.27 goals and allowed 2.87 in the regular season, but the Wild generated more shots per game and also allowed more shots, which creates a more volatile game state than Minnesota probably wants against a Dallas team that can finish.
The betting case starts with whether Minnesota can recover emotionally after letting Game 3 slip away at home. The Wild are allowing Dallas too many quality looks when games get stretched, and that has been the difference in two straight losses after their dominant Game 1 performance.
Betting Trends - DAL vs MIN
DAL
Dallas is riding a two-game winning streak with three power-play goals in Game 3 alone, and the Stars' 28.6% regular-season power play has been the defining edge in this series. Dallas' scoring depth and late-game composure have shown up in back-to-back wins, and the Stars have the high-end finishers to punish any mistakes Minnesota makes when games get stretched.
MIN
Minnesota's power play sits at 25.2% from the regular season and is dangerous enough to keep them in any game, but the Wild are now in a desperate spot facing a 3-1 hole. The total has produced 7, 6, and 7 goals through three games, and Minnesota's tendency to generate and allow more shots than average creates the kind of game state that has not favored them in this series.
Key Injuries and Notes - DAL vs MIN
Dallas
- Roope Hintz - A major two-way center whose speed, penalty killing, and matchup value are difficult to replace
- Nathan Bastian - Absence removes forechecking depth
Hintz's absence is significant because of his role on both sides of special teams and his ability to take on tough matchup minutes. Bastian's loss is more depth-related but still meaningful in a physical playoff series.
Wild
- Yakov Trenin - Absence hurts checking-line physicality and defensive-zone detail
- Charlie Stramel - Less impactful from a nightly playoff-rotation standpoint
Trenin's loss is the more impactful of the two for Minnesota, removing a checking-line presence that matters in a series this physical and penalty-driven. Stramel's absence is more depth-related and less impactful in a tight playoff rotation.
Stars vs Wild Moneyline and Total Picks
- Moneyline: Dallas Stars +114
- Total: Over 5.5
The total is the more attractive betting angle than the moneyline because this series has produced 7, 6, and 7 total goals, and both teams' power plays are dangerous enough to push another game over 5.5. The lean on Dallas moneyline comes from the Stars' scoring depth, special teams, and late-game composure showing up in back-to-back wins, with Minnesota's desperation at home making the empty-net path important.
Final Score Prediction
- Final Score: Stars 4, Wild 2
Dallas continues to ride its power-play advantage and high-end finishers to another win, with Minnesota's special teams keeping things competitive but unable to match the Stars' depth in a 4-2 final that includes a late empty-netter to lock in the puck-line cover.
How to Bet Stars vs Wild
This Game 4 is a heavy line-shopping spot because the moneyline price on Dallas +114 will vary widely across books, and the same is true for over 5.5 with juice ranging from -130 to -134 depending on the operator. If you want to play this game without putting real money on the line, check out our list of social sportsbooks to enjoy the action with sweepstakes-style play.
For bettors looking to maximize value on this matchup, the bet365 bonus code provides a strong sign-up offer that can be deployed on either Dallas moneyline or the over 5.5. With both power plays clicking and the series producing high totals through three games, both sides of our pick offer real value through the welcome bonus.
If you prefer sweepstakes-style play, the fliff promo code unlocks bonus coins to play on this Game 4 puck line, total, and player props. Robertson scoring props, Kaprizov shot props, and a high-event full game are all angles worth exploring across multiple platforms before puck drop.
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