Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday March 26 2026
Use Code WWWC Thursday night at UBS Arena sets up as one of the most tactically interesting games on the NHL slate, with the Dallas Stars arriving on Long Island as modest road favorites in a matchup that carries serious playoff weight for both clubs. If you have been sharpening your edge all season with our NHL picks, this is exactly the kind of spot worth examining closely — a depleted Islanders blue line facing one of the league's deadliest power plays, a skidding Dallas team that has dropped three straight, and a total that tells you the books expect a grind. The line has already moved, the public is leaning hard on the Islanders, and the injury report is far more consequential than the opening number let on. Let's get into it.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Puck Line Pick: New York Islanders +1.5
- Total Pick: Under 5.5
- Projected Final Score: Stars 3, Islanders 2
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Market | Dallas | NY Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Earliest) | -132 | +110 |
| Total (Earliest) | Over 5½ (-118) | Under 5½ (-104) |
Current Odds
| Market | Dallas | NY Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Latest) | -130 | +108 |
| Total (Latest) | Over 5½ (-118) | Under 5½ (-104) |
Line Movement - Puck Line
| Date | Time | Dallas | NY Islanders | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/26 | 07:57:47 AM | -130 | +108 | NYI 91%, NYI 66% |
| 03/26 | 07:57:26 AM | -126 | +105 | NYI 91%, NYI 66% |
| 03/26 | 07:56:50 AM | -132 | +110 | NYI 91%, NYI 66% |
| 03/26 | 07:56:35 AM | -130 | +108 | NYI 91%, NYI 66% |
| 03/26 | 07:56:00 AM | -128 | +106 | NYI 91%, NYI 66% |
| 03/26 | 07:55:44 AM | -126 | +105 | NYI 91%, NYI 66% |
| 03/25 | 10:19:57 PM | -125 | +104 | NYI 89%, DAL 50% |
| 03/25 | 10:19:50 PM | -126 | +105 | NYI 89%, DAL 50% |
| 03/25 | 10:19:21 PM | -125 | +104 | NYI 89%, DAL 50% |
| 03/25 | 10:19:02 PM | -120 | +100 | NYI 89%, DAL 50% |
| 03/25 | 02:19:30 PM | -126 | +105 | DAL 100%, DAL 100% |
| 03/25 | 12:11:33 PM | -132 | +110 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/26 | 07:57:17 AM | 5½ (-118) | 5½ (-104) | — |
| 03/26 | 07:56:50 AM | 5½ (-120) | 5½ (-102) | — |
| 03/26 | 07:56:35 AM | 5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | — |
| 03/25 | 10:19:57 PM | 5½ (-118) | 5½ (-104) | — |
| 03/25 | 10:19:21 PM | 5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | — |
| 03/25 | 10:19:02 PM | 5½ (-120) | 5½ (-102) | — |
| 03/25 | 10:15:14 PM | 5½ (-115) | 5½ (-105) | — |
| 03/25 | 02:19:30 PM | 5½ (-120) | 5½ (-102) | — |
| 03/25 | 12:11:33 PM | 5½ (-118) | 5½ (-104) | — |
Stars vs Islanders Key Matchups and Handicap
Dallas arrives at UBS Arena in a complicated situational spot. The Stars are 43-17-11 on the season — one of the better records in the Western Conference — but they have dropped three straight games heading into this road swing, which raises genuine questions about their current form and momentum. New York sits at 40-27-5 and has everything to play for with playoff positioning on the line. These are not the circumstances that typically favor a road favorite, and the line movement backs that up.
The moneyline opened Dallas at -132 in the earliest recorded window and has oscillated in a narrow band throughout the movement log. The more telling story is what happened at the public betting level: through the Thursday morning windows, the Islanders were pulling 91% of the dollars and 66% of the tickets — a lopsided public lean that is pushing money onto New York despite Dallas being the statistical favorite. There was a brief earlier window on Wednesday afternoon where Dallas commanded 100% of both dollars and tickets at -126, but the market clearly corrected from there. Sharp bettors who got in early at -120 before the overnight move to -125 and beyond captured better value on the Stars, and the current number around -130 suggests the books have stabilized at a price that reflects both the public lean and the legitimate talent gap.
On the ice, Dallas has the superior overall profile. The Stars average 3.37 goals per game while allowing just 2.70 — a combination that reflects genuine two-way excellence. Their power play converts at an elite 29 percent, which becomes an especially dangerous weapon if New York's already-depleted defensive group takes penalties under pressure. Jason Robertson has accumulated 85 points, Wyatt Johnston has reached 40 goals, and Miro Heiskanen's 52 assists make him one of the most impactful defensemen in the league from a transitional standpoint. Even with Tyler Seguin sidelined for the season and Radek Faksa out, Dallas has enough depth and structure to absorb those losses without dramatically changing their identity.
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New York's path to covering rests almost entirely on Ilya Sorokin. He has posted a 2.52 goals-against average and .913 save percentage — numbers that make him one of the more reliable in-game equalizers in the sport. When Sorokin is on, he gives the Islanders a legitimate chance to steal or grind out a result against a team with superior firepower, and in a game projected this low-scoring, one or two timely saves can be the difference between covering and not. Mathew Barzal at 65 points and Bo Horvat at 29 goals give the Islanders enough offensive credibility to threaten Dallas if they generate quality looks, but this is still a situation where New York will likely be playing from behind for long stretches.
The case for the under is straightforward: Dallas is one of the league's best defensive teams, New York is dealing with a compromised blue line that may push the coaching staff toward a more cautious, lower-event style, and Sorokin has the ability to suppress scoring on his own. The juice on the under has stayed relatively flat across the movement log — never swinging dramatically in either direction — which suggests the books are comfortable with 5.5 as the correct number. Take it at face value.
Betting Trends – DAL vs NYI
- Dallas is 43-17-11 overall; New York is 40-27-5, with the Islanders carrying significant playoff urgency into this home game.
- Dallas has lost three consecutive games entering Thursday's matchup, raising situational red flags despite the superior overall record.
- The moneyline opened Dallas at -132 on Wednesday and has since settled around -130, with notable fluctuation through the overnight session.
- New York pulled 91% of the moneyline dollars and 66% of the tickets in the Thursday morning windows — heavy public lean on the home underdog.
- Dallas commanded 100% of dollars and tickets at an earlier Wednesday afternoon window before the market reversed toward the Islanders.
- Dallas averages 3.37 goals per game and allows 2.70; New York's goaltending has been anchored by Ilya Sorokin's 2.52 GAA and .913 save percentage.
- Dallas operates with a 29 percent power play — one of the league's most dangerous units — against a New York blue line missing multiple regulars.
- Jason Robertson has 85 points, Wyatt Johnston has 40 goals, and Miro Heiskanen has 52 assists for Dallas; Mathew Barzal leads New York at 65 points and Bo Horvat has 29 goals.
- The total has held at 5½ throughout the entire movement log without shifting, signaling strong market consensus on this number.
Key Injuries and Notes – DAL vs NYI
- Tyler Seguin (DAL): Out for the remainder of the season. Removes an experienced center from the middle six, trimming depth at that position for Dallas.
- Radek Faksa (DAL): Out. Further reduces Dallas's center depth, though the Stars retain enough structural quality to absorb both absences.
- Ryan Pulock (NYI): Out. A key piece of the Islanders' defensive structure is unavailable, creating real exposure against Dallas's layered puck movement.
- Alexander Romanov (NYI): On injured reserve. Another regular defenseman out of the lineup, compounding the blue-line depth concerns for New York.
- Tony DeAngelo (NYI): Day-to-day after leaving the Chicago game early. If he cannot play, the Islanders' back end becomes dangerously thin against a Dallas team with an elite power play.
- Semyon Varlamov (NYI): Out. The backup goaltending option remains unavailable, placing the full burden on Sorokin with no reliable alternative behind him.
- New York's defensive injury situation is the most consequential storyline in this game and could influence the coaching staff's approach toward a more conservative, lower-event style of play.
Stars vs Islanders ATS and Total Picks
Puck Line Pick: New York Islanders +1.5. Getting a full goal and a half with a team backstopped by Sorokin in a game projected to finish 3-2 is exactly the kind of spot where the underdog puck line carries genuine value. Low-total environments naturally compress final margins, and Sorokin's ability to steal stretches of the game gives New York a realistic path to keeping this within one goal even if Dallas controls possession. The Islanders are worth backing at plus money on the puck line.
Total Pick: Under 5.5 (-104). Dallas defends at an elite level, the Islanders' defensive injuries should push New York toward a more structured, lower-event approach, and Sorokin is capable of holding down his end regardless of the circumstance. The total has not moved off 5½ across the entire movement log, which speaks to the market's conviction on this number. The under is the play, and the -104 price makes it even more attractive.
Final Score Prediction
Dallas wins this game, but not comfortably. Sorokin keeps the Islanders alive long enough to make it interesting, New York generates enough timely offense through Barzal and Horvat to stay within striking distance, and the Stars ultimately pull away late on the back of their superior depth and power-play efficiency. This shapes up as a tight, defensive-leaning game that finishes exactly the way the total suggests it should.
Projected Final Score: Dallas Stars 3, New York Islanders 2
How to Bet Stars vs Islanders
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