Edmonton Oilers vs Utah Mammoth Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday March 24 2026
Use Code WWWC Edmonton closes its road trip Tuesday night in Salt Lake City against a Utah team that has quietly built one of the more balanced profiles in the Western Conference — and our NHL picks are targeting both the home side and the Over in a game where the Oilers' defensive vulnerabilities, a depleted roster missing one of the league's best players, and Utah's superior current form all point toward a high-event home win for the Mammoth. Connor McDavid will make this game interesting regardless of circumstance, but Edmonton without Leon Draisaitl is a structurally different team — and Utah has been outscoring, out-defending, and out-performing the Oilers over the last month. The total market has been moving steadily toward the Over, and the reasons are not hard to find.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Utah Mammoth (-130)
- Total Pick: Over 6.5 (-114)
- Projected Final Score: Utah 4, Edmonton 3
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Side | Moneyline (Open) |
|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | +118 |
| Utah Mammoth | -142 |
Current Odds
| Side | Moneyline (Current) |
|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | +108 |
| Utah Mammoth | -130 |
Line Movement - Puck Line
| Date | Time | Edmonton | Utah | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 09:40 AM | +108 | -130 | UTA 70%, EDM 75% |
| 03/24 | 09:40 AM | +106 | -128 | UTA 70%, EDM 75% |
| 03/24 | 08:25 AM | +108 | -130 | UTA 98%, EDM 67% |
| 03/24 | 08:25 AM | +112 | -134 | UTA 98%, EDM 67% |
| 03/24 | 01:45 AM | +114 | -137 | EDM 100%, EDM 100% |
| 03/23 | 09:39 PM | +114 | -134 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:38 PM | +114 | -137 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:32 PM | +116 | -140 | — |
| 03/23 | 02:50 PM | +114 | -137 | — |
| 03/23 | 02:49 PM | +115 | -138 | — |
| 03/23 | 11:27 AM | +116 | -140 | — |
| 03/23 | 11:17 AM | +118 | -142 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 09:40 AM | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -106 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/24 | 09:40 AM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/24 | 01:45 AM | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -104 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/24 | 01:45 AM | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/23 | 09:39 PM | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:39 PM | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -106 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:38 PM | 6.5 -112 | 6.5 -108 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:38 PM | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -106 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:38 PM | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:32 PM | 6.5 -112 | 6.5 -108 | — |
| 03/23 | 08:20 PM | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -104 | — |
| 03/23 | 07:33 PM | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -106 | — |
| 03/23 | 02:50 PM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 | — |
| 03/23 | 02:49 PM | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -106 | — |
| 03/23 | 11:27 AM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 | — |
| 03/23 | 11:17 AM | 6.5 -106 | 6.5 -114 | — |
Oilers vs Mammoth Key Matchups and Handicap
The most important analytical lens for this game is not the season-record comparison — it is the structural mismatch created by Edmonton's injury situation paired against a Utah team that has been quietly playing some of the most complete hockey in the Western Conference over the last several weeks. The Oilers are 34-28-9, and their offensive ceiling remains elite behind Connor McDavid and a power play operating at 31.0 percent, the best mark in the league. But the team has allowed 3.39 goals per game across the full season, owns a penalty kill rated at just 76.9 percent, and is now navigating its road trip without Leon Draisaitl in the lineup. Those three facts in combination are what makes the Over and the Utah moneyline the cleaner plays on Tuesday night.
Utah's statistical profile tells the story of a team built to win tight games rather than trade goals. The Mammoth are scoring 3.14 goals per game while allowing just 2.79, and that defensive efficiency has been the backbone of their climb to fourth in the Central standings at 37-28-6. At home, that defensive structure becomes even more pronounced, and facing an Edmonton team missing its second-best offensive player makes the Mammoth's defensive edge feel more meaningful rather than less.
Recent form is also cleanly in Utah's favor. The Mammoth are 3-2 over their last five games and come into Tuesday off an overtime win over Los Angeles following victories over Vegas and Dallas — three Western Conference playoff teams. Edmonton, by contrast, has dropped back-to-back games to Florida and Tampa and is just 2-3 over the same five-game window. The Oilers are not in a good rhythm, and closing a road trip in Salt Lake City against a motivated Utah team in superior form is not an ideal scenario for a team missing its second center.
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The head-to-head history does give Edmonton something to point to. The Oilers won the first meeting this season 6-3 on October 28 in their own building. But that result came with Draisaitl healthy and Edmonton at home, two conditions that do not apply tonight. A 6-3 result in Edmonton does, however, support the case for the Over — two teams that combined for nine goals earlier this season are capable of doing it again, especially when Edmonton's leaky defensive metrics and Utah's willingness to generate offense at home create plenty of open space in transition.
The total market has been consistently pricing the Over as the more likely outcome since this game was first posted, with the juice sitting at -114 to -118 on the high side through most of the tracking window. The line opened at 6.5 with the Under initially favored at -114, quickly flipped to Over-heavy pricing, and has remained there ever since — an early and sustained market signal that the books expect this game to produce points at both ends.
Betting Trends - EDM vs UTA
The moneyline movement on this game is the most compelling data point on the board Tuesday night. Utah opened as a -142 home favorite and has softened all the way to -130 by Tuesday morning — a 12-cent move toward Edmonton that has happened despite dramatically shifting public percentages throughout the tracking window. The overnight snapshot at 1:45 AM showed 100 percent of both tickets and money on Edmonton, which drove some of the softening in Utah's price. By Tuesday morning, the split had reversed to 98 percent of tickets on Utah with only 67 percent of the money on the Mammoth — and then settled to 70 percent of tickets on Utah with 75 percent of the money on Edmonton by the most recent available snapshot.
That ticket-to-dollar split at Tuesday morning's most recent snapshot — 70 percent of tickets on Utah but 75 percent of money on Edmonton — is an important signal. It suggests the larger individual wagers are arriving on the Oilers as plus-money value plays, while the casual public ticket count is going with the home favorite. When the money percentage exceeds the ticket percentage on the underdog, it typically indicates sharp interest on that side, though the moneyline has only moved marginally in Edmonton's favor from the overnight reset, suggesting the books are comfortable near the current price.
On the total, the Over has been consistently juiced throughout the entire tracking window with one brief exception at the 11:17 AM opening on March 23, where the Under carried the premium at -114. Every subsequent snapshot has shown the Over as the favored side, and all four available Tuesday morning snapshots with public data show 100 percent of both tickets and money on the Over. The total number itself has not moved off 6.5 despite that sustained Over pressure, which indicates the books are comfortable holding the line and simply adjusting juice — a sign that the structural expectation of a high-event game is baked in.
Key Injuries and Notes - EDM vs UTA
Edmonton's injury report is the most consequential roster development on either side of this matchup and the primary reason the Oilers are being bet into a tighter number than the standings gap might otherwise produce. Leon Draisaitl is on long-term injured reserve, which removes the Oilers' second-best player, their most reliable finisher behind McDavid, a dominant faceoff presence, and one of the league's most dangerous power-play contributors. The Oilers' power play at 31.0 percent is elite in part because of what Draisaitl brings on the man advantage — without him, the unit becomes more predictable and more dependent on McDavid creating everything himself.
Beyond Draisaitl, Edmonton is also missing Trent Frederic, Colton Dach, Mattias Janmark, and Curtis Lazar. That is four additional forwards unavailable, which strips the Oilers' lineup of significant depth, faceoff stability, and the kind of heavy-minutes third-line reliability that road teams need to stay competitive in tightly contested games. Head coach Kris Knoblauch will be mixing and matching his forward lines against a Utah team that can exploit depth mismatches in transition and on the forecheck.
Utah's injury report is considerably more manageable. Nate Schmidt is listed as day-to-day, which introduces some uncertainty into the Mammoth's blue-line puck movement and transition game. Schmidt's absence would affect Utah's ability to move the puck efficiently out of the defensive zone and could reduce their power-play effectiveness, but it does not approach the structural damage that Edmonton is absorbing across multiple positions. The Mammoth are otherwise healthy and able to deploy their full complement of forwards and a functional defensive corps — a significant roster advantage heading into puck drop.
Oilers vs Mammoth ATS and Total Picks
- Moneyline: Utah Mammoth (-130)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-114)
Utah wins this game at home. The Mammoth are healthier, in better recent form, and playing in front of their own crowd against a road team missing five forwards including one of the league's top players. The moneyline has softened from -142 to -130, giving Utah backers a better price than was available at open, and the sustained Over pressure in the total market reflects the broader expectation that Edmonton's defensive vulnerabilities will generate enough chances at both ends to push this one past 6.5.
The Over is the cleaner play of the two tonight. Edmonton's penalty kill at 76.9 percent is a liability Utah's power play can exploit, and the head-to-head history from October already showed these teams are capable of combining for nine goals in a single game. With Edmonton forced to generate all of its offense through McDavid and a thinner supporting cast, expect a back-and-forth game that stays tight but produces enough volume on both sides to cash the Over comfortably.
Final Score Prediction
Utah 4, Edmonton 3
The Mammoth win a competitive game at home that plays out almost exactly as the market suggested from the time this line was posted. Utah scores enough to stay ahead, Edmonton's McDavid-driven attack generates three goals against a defense that allows the occasional crack, and the final combined total of seven lands comfortably over 6.5. Utah moneyline and Over bettors both cash, and the Oilers head home from their road trip having lost three straight to close it out.
How to Bet This Game
With Utah's moneyline already softened 12 cents from open and the Over carrying juice in the -114 to -118 range throughout the tracking window, acting before any additional Schmidt injury updates or last-minute lineup confirmations is the right approach tonight. The current -130 on Utah is a meaningfully better price than the -142 opening, and the Over at -114 represents solid value given the structural arguments for a high-event game.
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