Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, February 5, 2026
The Florida Panthers face the Tampa Bay Lightning with both teams heading in opposite directions heading into the Olympic break. The Panthers are 28-24-3 and with four losses in a row, they have the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference. The Lightning are 36-14-4 and with four wins in a row, they have the best record in the conference. Who will win this matchup? Check out our Panthers vs Lightning prediction!
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Panthers defense has let them down
The Panthers are having a rough season despite their offense stepping up and scoring 3.00 goals per game. Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and Carter Verhaeghe have scored 62 goals and 76 assists while defenseman Aaron Ekblad has added three goals and 18 assists from the point to help open up the offense.
The offense has been great but the defense has let them down, allowing 3.27 goals per game with 16 goals in the last four games. Niko Mikkola and Gustav Forsling have combined for 5.8 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net at will. In addition, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled, allowing 16 goals in the last five starts.
Key injury report for Panthers
- Brad Marchand (undisclosed) is out. Has 25 goals and 25 assists.
- Seth Jones (upper body) is on long-term injured reserve. Is a key part of the defense.
Tampa Bay has been great on both ends of the ice
The Lightning look like one of the best teams in the NHL with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.50 goals per game with 14 goals in the last three games. Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, and Brandon Hagel have scored 80 goals and 122 assists while defenseman Darren Raddysh has added 17 goals and 34 assists from the point to open up the offense.
The offense has been incredible but the defense is also incredible, allowing only 2.54 goals per game with only nine goals in the last four games. JJ Moser and Darren Raddysh have combined for 8.8 defensive point shares while Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel have stepped up at the forward position with 4.3 defensive point shares. Additionally, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has stepped up lately, allowing only 10 goals in the last five games.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,855.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,497.00 |
| 3 |  Ben Burns | +1,112.00 |
| 4 |  Ross Benjamin | +618.00 |
| 5 |  Bryan Power | +607.00 |
Key injury report for Lightning
- Brayden Point (lower body) is on long-term injured reserve. Has 11 goals and 19 assists.
- Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) is out of the Olympics. Has 15 goals and 20 assists.
Panthers vs Lightning Pick
Money Line Pick For Panthers vs Lightning
- Lightning -1.5 (+115) (4 units)
The Lightning look like the best team in the Eastern Conference, and they look to dominate this game on their home ice. The Lightning, who average 3.50 goals per game, should pile on the goals against the Panthers, who allow 3.27 goals per game, with Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Lightning, who allow only 2.54 goals per game, should limit the Panthers offense with JJ Moser, Darren Raddysh, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to make plenty of big saves. The Lightning should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win on their home ice.
Over/Under Pick For Panthers vs Lightning
- Over 6.5 (5 Units)
Both teams have great offenses and this game looks to be a high-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Panthers, who average 3.00 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Lightning, who have scored 14 goals in the last three games, should run up the score against the Panthers, who have allowed 16 goals in the last four games, with Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with effective puck movement while Darren Raddysh fires shots on the net from the point. The Over should cover in a high-scoring game controlled by both offenses.
Take the Over on 6.5 goals.
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