Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday October 22 2026

The Kings arrive at UBS Arena after finally securing their first win of the season, a 5-2 result against Washington on Tuesday in which Adrian Kempe scored twice. Their 1-4-2 record still reflects a difficult opening stretch, and they now face an Islanders club that has taken advantage of home ice, opening 4-1 there. New York is 5-3-1 overall and coming off a win over Anaheim, giving the home team steadier recent results. Yet the Kings' breakthrough is a reminder that their early record does not fully describe a roster with Artemi Panarin, Kempe and capable defenders who can move the puck quickly.

Los Angeles began its eastern trip in Washington and has additional New York-area games ahead. Its attack looked more connected in the Capitals victory than in several earlier outings, particularly when Kempe found space to shoot. Brandt Clarke has been a significant puck mover, and the combination of Panarin's vision and the Kings' transition speed can punish teams that leave the neutral zone open. The Kings have also struggled on special teams early in the season, so they need to be disciplined rather than relying on multiple power-play conversions. At even strength, their clearest route is to create off clean exits and force the Islanders to defend backward.

The Islanders have won four of their first five at UBS Arena and earned points in several consecutive games during this stretch. They handled the Maple Leafs 4-1 before beating Anaheim, two different opponents whose offenses ask different questions. The home side can shorten the ice through forechecking and line matching, then generate chances from rebounds instead of requiring a constant stream of rush opportunities. That approach is valuable against Los Angeles, which has conceded 27 goals through seven games. New York will still need to guard against counterattacks by Panarin and Kempe when its defense steps forward to keep a shift alive.

Semyon Varlamov has been confirmed as the Islanders' starter rather than Ilya Sorokin, a meaningful update for anyone building the handicap around an elite-number-one goalie. Varlamov has played sparingly after a lengthy absence and looked better in his second appearance than in his first. Los Angeles has been associated with Anton Forsberg for Thursday, but that projection was not confirmed at the same check. The Islanders' selection must therefore stand on more than Sorokin's reputation. Their home defensive structure and ability to frustrate the Kings' rush remain essential, while Varlamov needs to avoid losing pucks in traffic.

New York is without Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov and Matias Maccelli, with other lineup questions affecting the club's depth. That removes a major transition creator and a defenseman who can help manage physical shifts. Los Angeles has also dealt with Kevin Fiala's absence and uncertainty around Quinton Byfield, although Mats Zuccarello had been tracking toward a return during the road trip. The practical effect is to make both teams more dependent on the players who are available in their top lines. Each club can still win, but neither should be handicapped as if its ideal lineup were intact.

The reference market opened the research day with Los Angeles narrowly favored at -108 and New York near -102. A separately quoted price of Islanders -104 was available in the comparison, and later public sources had the Islanders a modest home favorite. Because those points are not timestamp-matched quotes from one book, it is safer to discuss a near-even matchup than claim a specific opening-to-current reversal. At -104, the Islanders do not need to dominate: a tight regulation win or a victory after regulation is enough. That pricing fits the limited separation between the teams' healthy lineups.

New York's best approach is to keep a rotating forecheck on the Kings and make their puck movers defend multiple consecutive shifts. The Kings would prefer a contest with quick transitions and enough room for Kempe to attack with speed. By working below the goal line and getting traffic in front of the projected Los Angeles goaltender, the Islanders can create repeat chances without opening themselves up to breakaways. Varlamov's confirmation introduces risk, and the Kings' first victory could restore confidence. Still, the home team's recent consistency offers a reason to favor it slightly in a close contest.

Best Bet: New York Islanders moneyline (-104). New York's 4-1 home start and more stable defensive approach are enough for a narrow preference at an almost even price. Los Angeles has the forwards to threaten, especially after its Washington breakthrough, while Varlamov is not a risk-free replacement for Sorokin. Prediction: New York Islanders 3, Los Angeles Kings 2. A one-goal margin is the expected shape of this matchup and supports the moneyline rather than an Islanders puck line.