Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 22, 2025

The Toronto Maple Leafs face the Montreal Canadiens with both teams looking to improve on rough stretches. The Maple Leafs have a 9-9-3 record and with only four wins in their last 10 games, they have the second-worst record in the Atlantic Division. The Canadiens are 10-7-3 and five losses in a row have them into the middle of the division. Who will win this matchup? Check out our Maple Leafs vs Canadiens prediction!

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Toronto hopes defense improves

The Maple Leafs are having a rough season despite their offense stepping up and scoring 3.43 goals per game. John Tavares and William Nylander have scored 21 goals and 33 assists to lead the top line but the rest of the offense has also stepped up. Matthew Knies and Nicolas Robertson have combined for 10 goals and 23 assists while defensemen Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have added six goals and 26 assists from the point to help open up the offense.

The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.67 goals per game. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe have combined for 1.9 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net at will. In addition, goaltender Joseph Woll who has a .912 save percentage and a 2.57 goals-against average on 91 shots with 1.2 goals saved above average.

Key injury report for Maple Leafs

• Brandon Carlo (lower body) was placed on injured reserve. Is a key part of their defense.
• Auston Matthews (lower body) is questionable to return on Saturday. Has nine goals and five assists
• Chris Tanev (upper body) is sidelined for another week. Is a key part of their defense.
• Anthony Stolarz (upper body) was placed on injured reserve. Is their starting goaltender

Canadiens hope defense improves

The Canadiens are having a great season with their offense leading the way, scoring 3.35 goals per game. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have scored 18 goals and 25 assists to lead the top line but the rest of the offense has also stepped up. Ivan Demidov, Oliver Kapanen, and Juraj Slafkovsky have combined for 17 goals and 18 assists while defensemen Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson have added three goals and 27 assists from the point to open up the offense.

The offense has stepped up but the defense has let them down, allowing 3.60 goals per game including 27 goals and in the last five games. Noah Dobson and Mike Matheson have combined for 2.7 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net at will. In addition, goaltender Samuel Montembeault has struggled with a .852 save percentage and a 3.71 goals against average on 270 shots with -12.0 goals saved above average.

Key injury report for Canadiens

• Kirby Dach (ankle) out four to six weeks. Had five goals and two assists.
• Alex Newhook was placed on injured reserve. Had six goals and six assists.
• Kaiden Guhle (lower body) out eight to ten weeks. A key part of their defense.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Pick

Money Line Pick For Maple Leafs vs Canadiens

• Maple Leafs (+115) (4 units)

The Maple Leafs are a mess but I see them stepping up and taking over this game against a Canadiens team that’s lost five games in a row. The Maple Leafs should pile on the goals against a Canadiens defense that allows 3.60 goals per game, with William Nylander, John Tavares, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Maple Leafs should limit the Canadiens' offense with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jake McCabe, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Joseph Woll to make plenty of big saves. The Maple Leafs should win the game with a strong performance on the road.

Take the Maple Leafs money line as road Underdogs.

Over/Under Pick For Maple Leafs vs Canadiens

• Over 6.5 (5 Units)

The Maple Leafs and the Canadiens have been awful on defense, and I see this game being a high-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Canadiens, who average 3.35 goals per game, should pile on the goals against the Maple Leafs, who allow 3.67 goals per game, with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Maple Leafs, who average 3.43 goals per game, should run up the score against the Canadiens, who have allowed 26 goals in their last five games, with William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence while creating open shots with quick passes as Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson fire shots on the net from the blue line. The Over should cover in a high-scoring game with both offenses stepping up.

Take the Over on 6.5 goals.

The Maple Leafs face the Canadiens in hockey’s oldest rivalry with both teams looking to improve in the Atlantic Division.