Minnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche Picks, Prediction and Odds Game 5
Use Code WWWC The Avalanche have the Wild on the ropes, holding a commanding 3-1 series lead and now returning home with a chance to close things out in front of their own fans. Game 5 in Denver has all the makings of a series-ending performance from one of the most dangerous teams in the league, and there is real value to be found on both sides of the betting board tonight. For more handicaps on the rest of the playoff slate, check out our NHL picks page for full coverage.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Colorado -1.5
- Total Pick: Under 6.5
- Projected Final Score: Avalanche 4, Wild 2
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Odds and Line Movement
Below is a snapshot of the opening odds, current odds, and how the market has moved leading up to puck drop in Denver.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | +160 | 6½ (-105) |
| Colorado | -192 | 6½ (-115) |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | +180 | 6½ (-102) |
| Colorado | -218 | 6½ (-118) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 12:43:56AM | 6½ -102 | 6½ -118 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/11 | 10:59:09PM | 6½ -105 | 6½ -115 |
Wild vs Avalanche Key Matchups and Handicap
Colorado has pushed Minnesota to the brink with a 3-1 series lead, and Game 5 sets up as a strong closeout spot for the Avalanche at home. The Wild won Game 3 by a 5-1 score, but Colorado has otherwise controlled the series with wins of 9-6, 5-2 and 5-2, including a convincing Game 4 road victory where the Avalanche outshot Minnesota 34-21, won 53.8% of faceoffs and pulled away with four third-period goals.
Nathan MacKinnon remains the biggest matchup problem in this series and on the season, leading Colorado with 127 points, 53 goals and 74 assists, while also scoring an empty-netter in Game 4. The Avalanche also got key secondary scoring from Nazem Kadri, Ross Colton, Parker Kelly and Brock Nelson in that win, showing they do not need MacKinnon to carry the offense alone.
Minnesota still has elite scoring talent with Kirill Kaprizov, who leads the Wild with 89 points and 45 goals, while Quinn Hughes has 48 assists and helped set up Nico Sturm's Game 4 goal, but the Wild have been chasing too often defensively. Colorado's team profile is stronger, averaging 3.63 goals per game while allowing just 2.40, compared to Minnesota's 3.27 goals for and 2.87 against.
The Avalanche also generate more volume at 33.7 shots per game while allowing only 26.1, a meaningful edge against a Wild team averaging 29.2 shots and allowing 29.4. Special teams are more balanced: Minnesota has the better power play at 25.2%, while Colorado owns the better penalty kill at 84.6%. With Colorado at home, owning the better shot metrics, defensive numbers and series control, the puck line is worth a look if priced reasonably. The total is trickier after three of four games reached at least seven goals, but Game 5 elimination setups can tighten.
MIN and COL Betting Trends
- Colorado holds a 3-1 series lead with wins of 9-6, 5-2 and 5-2 over Minnesota.
- The Avalanche outshot the Wild 34-21 and won 53.8% of faceoffs in Game 4.
- Colorado averages 3.63 goals per game while allowing only 2.40, both better than Minnesota's marks.
- The Avalanche generate 33.7 shots per game while allowing just 26.1, dominant volume metrics.
- Minnesota holds the special-teams edge on the power play at 25.2%, while Colorado owns the better penalty kill at 84.6%.
- Public money has hammered the OVER at 100% of bets and 100% of handle in the most recent ticket counts.
MIN and COL Key Injuries and Notes
- Jonas Brodin is listed day-to-day for Minnesota, a key two-way defenseman whose absence would hurt the Wild's defensive structure.
- Joel Eriksson Ek is also day-to-day for Minnesota, with center depth at stake if he is limited.
- Charlie Stramel remains out for the Wild.
- Arturri Lehkonen is day-to-day for Colorado, affecting wing depth options.
- Sam Malinski is day-to-day for Colorado, which could impact the blue-line rotation.
- Despite the injury concerns, the Avalanche have shown enough scoring depth to withstand limited absences.
Wild vs Avalanche ATS and Total Picks
- Spread Pick: Colorado -1.5
- Total Pick: Under 6.5
Colorado checks every important box heading into Game 5: home ice, series control, the stronger shot profile, the better goal differential and the more reliable defensive numbers. The puck line is the play with the Avalanche favored to close out the series, and elimination games historically tighten up defensively, supporting a lean to the under despite the high-scoring trend earlier in the series.
Final Score Prediction
Avalanche 4, Wild 2
Expect Colorado to bring the same shot volume and faceoff dominance they showed in Game 4, with MacKinnon leading the way and secondary scorers like Kadri, Colton and Nelson chipping in. Minnesota will get a goal or two from Kaprizov-driven looks, but the Wild's defensive structure, already shaky in this series, will buckle in another third period as the Avalanche close out the series on home ice.
How to Bet Wild vs Avalanche
If you're looking to get a wager down on Colorado's puck line or the under in tonight's Game 5, there are plenty of avenues available. Standard sportsbooks will have full markets for the series-deciding opportunity, but bettors in states without legal sports betting (or anyone looking for a different way to play this matchup) should check out social sportsbooks, which are widely available across the country and offer a great alternative for playoff hockey action. Fliff is one of the strongest options in that space for puck-line plays like Colorado tonight — grab your bonus with our fliff promo code page and load up extra coins behind the Avalanche. Whichever route you take, the recommendation stands: Colorado -1.5 on the puck line with a lean to the under 6.5.
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