Montreal Canadiens vs Chicago Blackhawks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday October 23 2026

Montreal travels to Chicago on Friday with a favorable season record but a significant new lineup problem. Captain Nick Suzuki is expected to miss time with an upper-body injury, leaving the Canadiens to reshape the center of their attack.

Chicago has struggled to turn competitive stretches into victories, yet this is a more inviting home assignment than the standings alone suggest. The Blackhawks can build their plan around challenging Montreal’s altered matchups rather than trying to match the Canadiens’ preferred speed through the neutral zone.

The Canadiens fell 4-3 in overtime to San Jose on Tuesday after allowing the tying and deciding goals during penalty-killing situations. Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky remain dangerous finishers, but Suzuki’s absence changes how frequently Montreal can bring its best scorers into the zone with control.

Ivan Demidov is also among the reported absences, while Mike Matheson has appeared on the day-to-day list. That combination leaves less margin for error on breakouts and power-play entries than Montreal enjoyed earlier in the month.

Chicago is only 3-6 entering the matchup and has conceded too many opportunities around its defensive zone. The Blackhawks also have to improve their own finishing because a 2.33 goals-per-game scoring average is not sufficient support for an inconsistent defense.

The opportunity Friday is to make the Canadiens work through a more physical, contested middle of the ice. Chicago does not need to outshoot Montreal by a huge margin; it needs to take advantage when an improvised visiting combination turns the puck over.

The Blackhawks can do particular damage if they pressure Montreal’s centers below the defensive circles, then attack before the Canadiens reorganize. Montreal’s response should be to simplify its exits and let Caufield receive the puck in space rather than ask him to manufacture every chance off the boards.

On special teams, Chicago must avoid the extended penalties that could let the Canadiens overcome their even-strength issues. The game profiles as more volatile than the difference between the clubs’ records would normally imply.

Goalie reports conflict: one tracker lists Jacob Fowler as Montreal’s possible starter, while another projects Jakub Dobes. Spencer Knight has been a prominent Chicago projection, but Arvid Soderblom also appeared in the information available Friday.

None of those names should be presented as a guaranteed assignment before team confirmation. Injuries elsewhere could also shape Chicago’s defensive pairs, particularly the day-to-day status reported for Bowen Byram. The uncertain nets are another reason to treat this as a price-dependent underdog play.

Montreal was around -161 in the frozen morning market, and some current comparisons have shortened or lengthened that favorite price depending on the sportsbook. DraftKings offered Chicago at +142 in the later Friday board, a meaningful payout against an opponent that is losing its first-line center.

The price does not make Chicago the stronger team over an entire season. It makes the home upset defensible within a single game that carries unusual lineup uncertainty and a greater-than-normal chance of fragmented play.

Expect Montreal to have stretches of better possession and generate danger whenever Caufield gets open, but Chicago should be able to contest enough entries to keep the game within reach. The Blackhawks need to win the second-chance battle and keep their defensive mistakes from arriving in consecutive shifts. A one-goal result is the most believable path to a Chicago wager cashing, particularly if the Canadiens’ reworked lines struggle with late-game defensive assignments.

Chicago’s best chance comes from starting quickly, forcing Montreal’s replacement center combinations to defend in their own end and drawing a few more dangerous opportunities than the visitors expect. This is not a recommendation to disregard the Canadiens’ scoring talent.

It is a judgment that the short-term lineup shock narrows the gap enough for a positive home price to merit consideration. Chicago can also use its last change to target the least experienced of Montreal’s replacement center combinations, particularly after offensive-zone faceoffs.

Best Bet: Chicago Blackhawks moneyline (+142). Chicago offers a legitimate home upset path because Montreal’s middle-of-the-lineup changes are likely to disrupt its puck movement and defensive assignments. The Blackhawks must avoid giving Caufield repeated clean looks, but they can exploit hesitation on Canadian breakouts and turn a close contest into a one-goal win. It is a riskier pick than backing the visitor on talent alone, which is why the positive return matters. Prediction: Chicago 4, Montreal 3. A tie deep into the third period would not be surprising; the Blackhawks are expected to find the final finishing chance if their forecheck stays assertive.