Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday October 29 2026

Montreal visits Dallas for an 8 p.m. ET meeting between two teams with strong early records and important personnel differences. The Canadiens are 7-3-2, while the Stars are 7-4-1 and have made defensive control the foundation of their results. This is not an easy matchup for Montreal because Nick Suzuki and Ivan Demidov are out, removing substantial playmaking from the top of the lineup. Dallas also has injuries, but its goaltending and defensive structure make the home club a more dependable bet to control dangerous chances over three periods.

The Canadiens still have Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Lane Hutson to create offense, and Chris Kreider can threaten around the crease. With Suzuki sidelined, Alex Newhook is projected between Caufield and Slafkovsky, a combination that must generate chances without relying on the established chemistry of Montreal's usual top center. The Canadiens lost 5-1 to New Jersey on Tuesday, a reminder that their scoring depth has become less reliable as injuries accumulate. Demidov's absence also takes an important transition option out of the attack.

Dallas can attack through Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen while relying on Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley to move the puck from the defensive zone. The Stars have been especially effective at denying high-danger looks, and their penalty kill ranks among the best in the league. Dallas is missing Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell and other contributors, so the Stars are not at full strength either. Nevertheless, their top pair and disciplined defensive positioning make it hard to turn a neutral-zone opening into repeated scoring chances.

Jakub Dobes is scheduled to start for Montreal after Jacob Fowler handled the previous three games, while Jake Oettinger is the expected Dallas starter. The performance gap is relevant: Oettinger has been sharp and has a much stronger early save percentage than Dobes, whose numbers have been uneven. Montreal's shot selection will need to be patient because perimeter attempts are unlikely to beat Oettinger consistently. The Stars can make life difficult for Dobes through screen shots and rapid side-to-side passing, particularly if Montreal takes penalties.

Dallas has been quoted near -162 to -169 on the moneyline, with Montreal around +138 to +149. An opening market comparison near Dallas -164 and Montreal +139 shows little decisive shift, suggesting much of the injury difference is already reflected in the price. The Stars' moneyline is more expensive than the preferred -150 ceiling. Dallas -1.5 at +155 on a sportsbook comparison offers a positive return while asking the stronger defensive team to win by two. The main total has varied from 5.5 to 6 across books.

Dallas will try to control the middle of the ice and limit the number of entries Montreal completes with possession. Hutson can beat that structure with a quick pass through coverage, but Dallas has forwards who backcheck aggressively enough to prevent the second wave from becoming a routine scoring chance. At the other end, Rantanen's puck protection and Hintz's speed should force Montreal's defense to manage both the cycle and the rush. That combination creates more ways for the home team to find the second and third goals.

The special-teams matchup is more nuanced than simply comparing injured players. Montreal can still create power-play looks through Hutson's deception and Caufield's shot, but Dallas has the penalty killers and goaltending to force those opportunities farther from the slot. A long Canadiens possession that ends with one harmless attempt helps the Stars conserve energy and create a counterattack. The home team should focus on turning Montreal's aggressive puck movement into turnovers rather than trying to match its speed on every shift. If Dallas scores first, the Canadiens may have to put more of their young defenders into the rush, leaving additional gaps for Rantanen to exploit. That is the game state a Stars puck-line bet needs.

The obvious risk is that Oettinger and the Dallas defense make this a very low-scoring game, leaving the Stars with a 2-1 or 3-2 victory rather than a two-goal cushion. Montreal also has enough skill on the power play to score without sustained five-on-five pressure. For that reason the puck line should only be played at a useful plus price. It is not the same wager as simply expecting Dallas to win. An empty-net goal becomes especially relevant if the Canadiens are chasing a late deficit.

Best Bet: Dallas Stars -1.5 (+155 or better). The Stars' defensive shape and Oettinger's form should make Montreal's missing top-end playmakers especially costly, while the home club has enough scoring across its first two lines to separate late. This is a lower-certainty position than an ordinary moneyline favorite because a one-goal result remains possible. Prediction: Dallas 4, Montreal 2. The Stars should generate an important additional goal once the visitors become more aggressive.