Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday November 5 2026

Colorado Avalanche -1.5 at +110 hosting Nashville. The Avs score 4.13 per game, tied with Edmonton for the highest mark in the NHL. Artturi Lehkonen has 12 goals already — Nathan MacKinnon has 18 assists. Colorado sits at 9-6-1 with 19 points and the firepower to bury any team in the league on any given night. Nashville comes in at 6-4-5 with 17 points. Five overtime losses in 15 games. That's a lot of hockey decided by a single goal in extra time. The Predators play close games — Colorado has the ability to make sure this isn't one.

Colorado at 4.13 per game isn't a small sample fluke. Through 16 games the Avalanche have scored 66 goals. And the offense runs through MacKinnon's playmaking, 18 assists leads the team, and Lehkonen's finishing ability. Twelve goals in 16 games is a 61-goal pace over a full 82-game season. That would be an elite mark by any standard. The power play at 21.2% is above average, gives Colorado an — crazy — extra weapon when the game tightens up in the third period. Mackenzie Blackwood in net has been excellent. But 8-3-0 with a 2.66 GAA. Eight wins in 11 starts, a 72.7% win rate for the goaltender alone.

Nashville brings some interesting wrinkles. The Predators own the best penalty kill in the NHL at 89.4%. Nearly nine of every ten penalties killed successfully. That's an extraordinary number and it directly neutralizes Colorado's 21.2% power play to some extent. Their 30.6% power play is also elite, fourth in the league. Nashville is a special teams powerhouse that plays average hockey at even strength. But that's a dangerous combination because it means the Predators can — big number — hang in in games they have no business being competitive in. Juuse Saros, 3-3-4 with a .902 save percentage and 2.94 GAA. Decent numbers overall but those 4 overtime losses jump off the page. Nashville hangs around, makes it to the third period, then loses, that's a pattern.

But blackwood at 8-3-0, 2.66 GAA versus Saros at 3-3-4, 2.94 GAA. Blackwood has been the better goaltender this season by record, and by the numbers. Not a huge gap in save percentage, but the win totals tell a clearer story. MacKinnon with 18 assists is orchestrating one of the best offenses in the league. Lehkonen has 12 goals and the depth has contributed throughout the lineup. Nashville's danger comes on the power play. But at five-on-five the Predators simply don't have the scoring depth to match Colorado shot for shot.

At +110 a $100 bet collects $110 on a Colorado puck line win. Implied probability of 47.6%. Colorado's goal differential runs plus-0.88 per game. And a positive differential that large over 16 games means multi-goal wins happen regularly. Nashville's 5 overtime losses in 15 games tells its own story — the Predators play tight games and then lose in extras. Real number. But Colorado at home has the talent to turn a close game into a blowout in a two-minute stretch. That third-period ability is the edge, one shift from MacKinnon changes everything.

Colorado scores twice in the first. MacKinnon sets up Lehkonen for the opener, the Avalanche add another on the power play. And nashville responds with one in the second, probably on their own power play given the 30.6% conversion rate. It's 2-1 heading to the third and the game feels tight. Then Colorado explodes — Three goals in the final frame. Nashville's legs give out — The altitude factor in Denver has always been real in late-game situations.

Final score, Colorado 5, Nashville 2. The Avs cover the puck line comfortably after a tight first 40 minutes. Nashville's pattern of playing close and losing late holds up once again.

Nashville's 89.4% penalty kill is a legitimate weapon. But if the Predators win the special teams battle convincingly this could be a 3-2 game that does not cover. Saros can also steal a game, .902 save percentage — worth noting — with the pedigree to make 35 saves on any night. But Colorado at home scoring 4.13 per game, Lehkonen on a 61-goal pace, MacKinnon distributing at will. That's not a team that gets held down often.

The altitude matters more than people think — Nashville plays at sea level, colorado sits a mile above it. Which by the third period, fatigue becomes a real factor and — not even close — the Avalanche traditionally dominate the final twenty minutes at Ball Arena.

Best Bet: Colorado -1.5 (+110) — Highest-scoring offense in the NHL at home against a team with 5 overtime losses in 15 games. Lehkonen has 12 goals, MacKinnon has 18 assists, Blackwood is 8-3. Plus money on the puck line. Best play of the night. Prediction: Colorado 5, Nashville 2