New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday November 7 2026

New Jersey's record makes this the kind of game where bettors can talk themselves into paying for the obvious favorite. The Devils are 11-5-0 and have won eight of their last ten. The Islanders are 7-6-2 and have lost some of the shine that an early run provided. That is enough to explain a Devils moneyline around -148. It does not automatically make that the best available wager, particularly with New Jersey only 3-3 on the road.

The Islanders were available as high as +130 at FanDuel in the Friday comparison. That is a meaningful return for a team that is 4-3-1 at UBS Arena, even if the matchup isn't entirely comfortable. I am looking for a close game controlled by goaltending and home-ice matchups. If the Islanders can turn this into a one-goal contest, the plus price may justify accepting the Devils' better overall form.

The Devils' 8-2 run over ten games deserves credit. They have been finding ways to win, and they can beat a team even after surrendering an early lead. But a 3-3 road record means their best work has not been evenly distributed between venues. Betting them at -148 requires a win percentage of nearly 60%. That's a high bar in a division matchup with a competitive home club.

The projected New Jersey starter is Jake Allen, with Connor Hellebuyck also a possibility. Allen's early save percentage has been about .887, while Hellebuyck's small Devils sample is roughly .891. Hellebuyck's pedigree makes him an important potential change in the matchup, but the assignment remains a projection until the team confirms it. Either way, the Devils are better than the Islanders on overall record, not necessarily overwhelmingly better in this exact road setting.

New Jersey's skill can undo an underdog bet quickly. If the Devils establish their forecheck early and force turnovers above the Islanders' circles, they'll create repeat chances before the hosts can change lines. The risk of that happening is reflected in the favorite's price. I don't want to pretend the Islanders are the superior team. I want to determine whether the gap is wide enough to justify more than a 56% implied market probability on New Jersey.

Ilya Sorokin is the leading projected starter for New York. His early results include a .911 save percentage and 2.41 goals-against average. Those are useful numbers in a game where the home club may need to survive periods spent defending against New Jersey's attack. Sorokin doesn't need to steal the whole night, but a couple of high-quality stops could keep the score at 2-2 long enough for the next goal to decide it.

The Islanders' injury list is significant. Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock and Alexander Romanov are all listed out. Losing that much high-end talent means the home team has fewer ways to come back if it falls behind. It also makes Sorokin's role more important. The rational counterargument to my pick is that the Devils' deeper lineup simply generates more opportunities than New York can survive.

Still, the Islanders' 5-3-2 record over their last ten is not the profile of a club that should be ignored at home. This game isn't being played on New Jersey's stronger home ice, and I don't need the Islanders to dominate every shift. I need them to remain close and make a few more plays when the game is tied, the kind of outcome that plus-money underdogs are built around.

DraftKings displayed the Devils at -148, while FanDuel's Islanders quote reached +130. Another comparison showed the home underdog at +125, so there is a real price-shopping question. At +130, break-even is 43.5%; at +125 it rises to 44.4%. Those differences won't fix missing defensemen, but they do matter when evaluating a small projected advantage.

The Islanders' argument is narrower than their +130 price makes it look. They have home ice and, if he starts, a goaltender capable of making a 3-2 score hold up. New Jersey has the deeper lineup and the better ten-game form. That leaves little room to chase a shrinking underdog number. Sorokin's status is central; a change in goal would require a fresh handicap rather than an automatic Islanders pick.

The Devils are the better recent team and may well win. Sorokin is the reason I can make a serious case for the other side, with the home record and New Jersey's ordinary road split adding support. This is a selective underdog wager, not a prediction that the Islanders suddenly become more talented across four lines.

Best Bet: New York Islanders full-game moneyline (+130 at FanDuel reference, or better).

Score Prediction: New York Islanders 3, New Jersey Devils 2.