New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators Prediction and Picks - October 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC National Hockey League action on Saturday afternoon, and we have a New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Islanders are off a 4-2 home win over Edmonton to move to 1-3 on the year. Ottawa is at 2-3 and off a 4-3 shootout win at home against Seattle. Read on to see our Islanders vs Senators prediction.
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Islanders Grab First Win Of The Year
The Islanders arrive in Ottawa with a bit of relief after finally securing their first win of the season—a 4–2 victory over Edmonton that featured a natural hat trick from Bo Horvat and a solid debut from backup goalie David Rittich, who made 31 saves. Prior to that, New York had been outscored 13–7 across three straight losses and had led for less than two minutes total in those games. Despite the rough start, the team has consistently outshot opponents, suggesting that the offensive structure is generating chances even if the finishing hasn’t followed. Horvat’s breakout performance could be a turning point, especially with Mathew Barzal and Jonathan Drouin showing signs of chemistry on the second line.
Ilya Sorokin is expected to start in net, and while his season numbers are rough—0–3–0, 4.18 GAA, .854 SV%—his career record against Ottawa is stellar: 4–0–1, 1.97 GAA, .942 SV%. Head coach Patrick Roy has emphasized a “one save at a time” mindset for Sorokin, aiming to rebuild confidence through simplicity. The Islanders’ defensive pairings remain in flux, with Alexander Romanov questionable and Adam Boqvist likely to draw in. Rookie Matthew Schaefer has quietly put together a four-game point streak, becoming the youngest player in NHL history to start his career with points in each of his first four games. His poise and puck movement have added a layer of composure to a blue line that’s still finding its rhythm.
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Special teams remain a mixed bag. The Islanders have converted 18.75% of their power play chances (3-for-16) and allowed 4 goals on 14 penalty kills, ranking 23rd in PK efficiency. Their even-strength scoring has been limited—just 8 goals—but the shot volume (133 attempts) suggests that puck luck may be due to swing. If Sorokin can stabilize in the net and the top six continue to gel, New York has the tools to build on its recent win and challenge Ottawa’s defensive depth.
Sens End Three-Game Slide
Ottawa enters this matchup on the heels of a 4–3 shootout win over Seattle, a much-needed result after dropping three straight and being outscored 18–7 during that skid. The Senators showed resilience, clawing back from a late deficit with a clutch extra-attacker goal from Dylan Cozens and shootout finishes from Tim Stützle and Shane Pinto. Linus Ullmark made 30 saves, and the team looked more composed in transition and on the forecheck. Still, the absence of captain Brady Tkachuk—out 6–8 weeks after thumb surgery—looms large. Tkachuk led the team in scoring in four of the past seven seasons, and his physical presence and net-front play are difficult to replicate.
Offensively, Ottawa has generated volume, ranking 5th in the NHL in shots on goal (154), but their shooting percentage sits at 9.74%, and they’ve struggled to convert sustained zone time into goals. The power play has been a bright spot, converting 4 of 18 chances (22.2%), good for 7th in the league, with David Perron and Shane Pinto anchoring the top unit. At even strength, the Senators have scored 11 goals but allowed 16, and their defensive zone coverage has been inconsistent. With rookies and depth players like Ridly Greig and Egor Sokolov seeing increased minutes, the team is still adjusting to new roles and responsibilities.
Defensively, Ottawa has allowed 25 goals through five games, including 9 on the penalty kill, which ranks near the bottom of the league. The blue line has been under pressure, and while Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot offer mobility and puck-moving ability, the group has struggled to contain rush chances and clear rebounds. Ullmark has been solid but not spectacular, and the Senators will need more structure in front of him to avoid trading chances with a New York team that’s starting to find its offensive footing. If Ottawa can tighten up defensively and maintain discipline, they’ll have a chance to build momentum at home.
New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators Pick
Islanders vs Senators Moneyline Pick
- Ottawa -142 (5 Units)
Ottawa is a solid lean in this spot, especially with momentum shifting after their shootout win over Seattle. Despite missing Brady Tkachuk, the Senators showed resilience and offensive depth, with Tim Stützle and Shane Pinto stepping up in key moments. Their power play has been efficient—22.2% conversion rate—and they’ve generated the 5th-most shots on goal in the league, which suggests sustained zone pressure and puck control. Against an Islanders team that’s struggled to finish chances and has allowed 13 goals in their first three games, Ottawa’s ability to capitalize on rebounds and create traffic in front of the net could be the difference.
Defensively, Ottawa has issues to clean up, but they match up well against New York’s current structure. The Islanders rely heavily on Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal for scoring, and if Ottawa can limit their time and space, they’ll force secondary contributors to beat them. Linus Ullmark has been steady in net, and with the Senators tightening up their defensive zone coverage late against Seattle, there’s reason to believe they can build on that effort. With home ice, a more cohesive top-six, and a power play that’s clicking, Ottawa has the edge in both matchup and momentum.
Islanders vs Senators Over/Under Pick
- Over 6 (5 Units)
Over 6 is a reasonable play in a matchup featuring two teams that generate high shot volume but struggle with defensive consistency. Ottawa ranks 5th in the NHL in shots on goal and has converted 22.2% of its power play chances, while New York has fired 133 shots through four games and just broke out with a four-goal performance against Edmonton. Both teams have allowed over 3 goals per game, and with Ilya Sorokin and Linus Ullmark both posting sub-.900 save percentages so far, the potential for rebound goals, special teams scoring, and late-game chaos makes this total vulnerable to a push or clear over.
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