New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday November 9 2026

The New York Islanders open a three-game California trip Monday night at SAP Center, looking to stop a three-game winless stretch against a San Jose team that has dropped five straight. New York is 7-6-3 after letting a two-goal third-period advantage disappear in a 5-4 overtime loss to New Jersey on Saturday. The Sharks are 7-11-1 and have managed only two regulation victories this season. Puck drop is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET.

The matchup offers an unusual contrast. The Islanders still rely heavily on defensive structure and their goaltender to control difficult stretches, yet recent collapses have undermined that approach. San Jose has a growing collection of young attackers capable of producing quick goals, but the Sharks' inability to close games in regulation remains a glaring weakness. The betting decision comes down to which side is more likely to manage the critical final ten minutes.

New York has been a modest road favorite across Monday's markets. A sportsbook comparison showed Islanders -133 at bet365, with San Jose available around +115 to +120 at competing books. Consensus tracking places New York's first average moneyline near -130 on November 8 and around -137 on Monday, a mild move toward the visitor rather than a dramatic shift.

The full-game total has been listed at 6.5 on several current boards, although early readings included 5.5 and 6. That movement underscores the scoring ability of both young San Jose forwards and the Islanders' defensive absences, but a total wager requires a more specific scoring assumption. The preferred wager is the New York moneyline at -140 or better, a price that allows for a close contest and counts an overtime or shootout victory.

The Islanders' 5-4 defeat to the Devils was painful because their best early work should have been enough. Matthew Schaefer, Anthony Duclair, Victor Eklund and Simon Holmstrom scored, while Ilya Sorokin made a season-high 45 saves. New Jersey still erased a two-goal deficit in the third period and won in overtime. The Islanders have offensive contributors beyond their top line, but too many difficult defensive shifts have reached Sorokin.

Schaefer and Bo Horvat share the team scoring lead with 16 points, and Schaefer has produced 14 points over his past 12 games. His ability to create offense from defense is particularly valuable while Mathew Barzal and Matias Maccelli remain out. Ryan Pulock will not play, and Alexander Romanov is also injured, making the blue line thinner than New York would prefer. Sorokin is the projected starter, but final confirmation is important after his heavy workload Saturday.

San Jose's latest loss, 4-3 against Dallas, included goals from Will Smith, Michael Misa and Ivar Stenberg. Macklin Celebrini supplied three assists and enters Monday as the focal point of the Sharks' offense. Celebrini has 21 points despite missing two games, with Smith also providing a regular finishing threat. If the Islanders allow clean entries into the middle of the ice, San Jose has the skill to make them pay immediately.

That offensive upside has not translated into dependable results. The Sharks are 3-5-0 at home, have only two regulation wins overall and own a penalty kill around 76.5%. Yaroslav Askarov is projected in goal; his 4-8-0 record and .885 save percentage illustrate how often San Jose has needed more defensive support. Alexander Wennberg is expected to return, giving the Sharks another option through the middle, but Igor Chernyshov remains injured.

New York must give Sorokin a lighter workload than the heavy workload he faced against New Jersey. Keeping Celebrini and Smith outside the most dangerous areas, winning rebounds and managing second-period line changes would help. Horvat can provide needed possession on key draws, and Schaefer's first pass can turn a San Jose forecheck into a New York counterattack. A road favorite cannot afford to rely on another exceptional goaltending performance.

San Jose's clearest path is to make this a trading-chances contest. The Islanders are missing significant pieces on defense and have not protected leads reliably, while the Sharks' young forwards are comfortable attacking off the rush. But if New York controls the pace at five-on-five, San Jose's defensive coverage and penalty killing become liabilities. The visitors' advantage is modest rather than overwhelming, especially with both teams trying to end losing stretches.

The Sharks have the talent to threaten any favorite, and a close game is more likely than an easy Islanders victory. New York's recent form also makes a large stake difficult to defend. Still, the Islanders have a credible advantage in goaltending, more established defensive habits and enough offense from Horvat, Schaefer and their supporting lines to exploit San Jose's uneven coverage.

Best Bet: New York Islanders moneyline (-133 at bet365; playable at -140 or better). This is a cautious road-favorite choice, not a claim that the game presents a validated numerical edge. Prediction: New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 3. Celebrini should keep the Sharks dangerous, but New York can earn the decisive chance if it manages the late stages more carefully than it did Saturday.