Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction and Picks –Thursday October 9, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Tampa Bay Lightning open their 2025–26 season at home Thursday night against the Ottawa Senators. These teams split four head-to-head meetings last year, with the home team winning every matchup. As the new season begins, both clubs are aiming to build off of last season's playoff appearances, but Tampa Bay comes in with far greater National expectations. Don't get stuck in the penalty box. Check out more free NHL Picks.
Happy with progress
The Ottawa Senators took a big step forward last season, going 45–30–7 before losing to Toronto in the first round of the playoffs. They’re listed at +3500 on ESPN BET to win the Stanley Cup, ranking 14th among all teams.
Ottawa’s improvement came mostly from fixing their defense. Head coach Travis Green brought structure and discipline, turning what used to be one of the worst defensive teams into a solid one that gave up only 2.83 goals per game last year. Young star Jake Sanderson has become a reliable top defender, and veterans Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub add steady support. The team also traded for Jordan Spence from the Los Angeles Kings to add more depth at defense.
General Manager Steve Staios decided not to make any major offseason moves, instead putting hopes in that the current roster will continue to grow. On offense, the Senators still need more consistency. They ranked 19th in scoring and struggled to produce goals outside of their top players. Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle lead the way, but the team will need more consistent help throughout the roster.
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The Lightning believe they can win it all
The Tampa Bay Lightning remain one of the NHL’s elite teams, entering the new season with +1,000 Stanley Cup odds, seventh-best in the league. Tampa Bay finished 47-27-8 last year but was eliminated in the first round by the Florida Panthers.
Offense should continue to be the Lightning's strength as last season, they led the league with 3.56 goals per game. Back are Nikita Kucherov, who led the NHL with 121 points, and Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel who each scored over 40 goals last season. Brandon Hagel also added 35 goals and 90 points, and the Lightning’s power play ranked fifth overall. They carried that form into the preseason, going 6-1.
Durability remains the biggest concern for how far this team can go. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy and defenseman Victor Hedman have already dealt with minor injuries before opening night.
Despite losing a few depth pieces from last season, including defenseman Nick Perbix, the Lightning still have championship-level talent and experience. If they stay healthy, they should again be among the top contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Senators vs Lightning Prediction
Money Line Pick for Senators vs. Lightning
- Ottawa Senators +1.5 (-180) (4 units)
Even though Tampa Bay controlled this matchup last season, Ottawa looks like a live underdog here. The Lightning will likely be without star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who started 63 of 82 games last season but is expected to miss this one due to injury. Without him, Tampa’s defense takes a major step back. Ottawa’s improved blue line and growing offensive depth should help them stay competitive, even on the road. This is a bit juicy, but so are the Lightning at -162 to win outright, and getting the extra goal on the side of the dog is where I am going here for the opener.
Total Pick
- Over 6.0 (4 units)
The Lightning led the NHL with 3.90 goals per game at home last season. While the Senators' offense was not explosive, without Vasilevskiy in net for Tampa Bay, I expect Ottawa to have some success in this opener offensively as well. The over is the play.
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