Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Picks and Predictions for Sunday, January 18, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Ottawa Senators head to Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday, January 18, 2026, with puck drop set for 5:00 PM EST. The matchup will air on ESPN+ and FanDuel Sports Network Detroit. Detroit opens as the home favorite at -135 on the moneyline, while Ottawa is priced at +114. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. On the puck line, Detroit -1.5 is listed at +170, while Ottawa +1.5 sits at -205. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more NHL matchups and best bet options.
Ottawa’s Scoring Is Real, But Discipline Isn’t
Ottawa comes into this game with a 22-19-5 overall record and an 11-10-2 mark on the road. Over their last five games, the Senators have picked up wins against the Rangers and Canucks, while falling to the Panthers, Avalanche, and Mammoth. That recent run highlights both sides of Ottawa’s identity—they can score when games open up, but defensive lapses have been costly.
From a statistical standpoint, Ottawa is averaging 3.22 goals per game while allowing 3.33. They generate 28.5 shots per game and give up just 25.2 shots against, which suggests solid five-on-five structure. The issue arises on special teams. While the power play has been effective with 35 goals and a 22.7% conversion rate, the penalty kill has struggled badly at 72.4%, having already allowed 37 power play goals.
Ottawa’s ability to limit shots is a strength, but that advantage erodes quickly when they’re forced to defend short-handed. Against a team that thrives on the power play, that weakness becomes magnified.
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Detroit’s Home Success Is Built on Special Teams
Detroit enters the matchup at 29-16-4 overall and has been strong at home with a 17-8-1 record. Their recent form includes wins over the Sharks, Hurricanes (in overtime), Canadiens, and Canucks, with their lone loss in the last five coming against the Bruins. That stretch reflects a team playing consistent hockey and finding ways to close games.
The Red Wings are averaging 3.09 goals per game while allowing 3.02, supported by 28.0 shots per game and 28.1 shots against. Detroit’s special teams have been a clear difference-maker. They’ve scored 38 power play goals while converting at a 24.7% rate, and their penalty kill has held firm at 80.0%, allowing just 26 power play goals against.
Against an Ottawa penalty kill sitting at 72.4%, Detroit’s power play efficiency stands out as a meaningful edge. In a relatively modestly priced moneyline game, the team more likely to capitalize on extra opportunities often ends up being the right side.
Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Pick
Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Detroit Red Wings -135
Detroit is the side I’m backing here due to their consistency at home and a special teams profile that directly targets Ottawa’s biggest vulnerability. Ottawa can score, but their penalty kill has allowed far too many power play goals, and Detroit’s power play has been one of the most reliable drivers of their success. At home, that edge is hard to overlook.
Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings Total Pick
- Pick: Over 6.5 (-115)
I’m leaning to the over because both teams are averaging more than three goals per game offensively, and Ottawa games can escalate quickly when special teams come into play. Detroit’s power play should generate high-quality chances, while Ottawa’s offense is capable of trading goals. With Ottawa allowing 3.33 goals per game and Detroit allowing 3.02, this total becomes reachable if each team pushes into the three-goal range.
Final Score Prediction:
Red Wings 4, Senators 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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