Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction, Saturday, February 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Ottawa Senators face the Toronto Maple Leafs with both teams looking to improve on rough seasons. The Senators are 28-22-8 but thanks to an overtime loss, they earned a point and are only seven out of a playoff spot. The Maple Leafs are 27-23-9 and with two losses in a row, they sit in last place in the Atlantic Division and look like sellers ahead of the trade deadline. Who will win this Ontario battle? Check out our Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction!
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Ottawa hopes defense improves
The Senators are having a rough season despite their offense stepping up and scoring 3.26 goals per game. Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Dylan Cozens have scored 65 goals and 89 assists while defenseman Jake Sanderson has added 11 goals and 36 assists to help open up the offense.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.21 goals per game. Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub have combined for 6.6 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net with ease. In addition, goaltender Linus Ullmark has had a rough season in the net with -9.0 goals saved above average.
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Key injury report for Senators
- No key injuries to report.
Maple Leafs are let down by awful defense
The Maple Leafs are having a terrible season despite their offense playing well and scoring 3.22 goals per game. William Nylander and Auston Matthews have scored 44 goals and 60 assists while John Tavares and Matthew Knies have combined for 37 goals and 60 assists to add depth to the forward unit.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has let them down, allowing 3.42 goals per game with nine goals in the last two. Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have combined for 5.4 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net at will. The bright spot is the play of goaltender Joseph Woll, who has allowed only seven goals in the last three starts.
Key injury report for Maple Leafs
- Chris Tanev is on injured reserve.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Pick
Money Line Pick For Senators vs Maple Leafs
- Senators (-110) (4 units)
This will be a great game between two evenly matched teams. The Maple Leafs look to bounce back on their home ice but the Senators look to build off an overtime loss and take control of this one. The Senators should find the back of the net with ease against the Maple Leafs, who allow 3.42 goals per game, with Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and finding open looks off of centering and cross-ice passes. The Senators should limit the Maple Leafs offense with Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub creating turnovers at the blue line and limiting shooting lanes, allowing goaltender Linus Ullmark to make plenty of big saves. The Senators should win the game with a strong performance on the road.
Take the Senators money line a/Under Pick For Senators vs Maple Leafs
- Over 5.5 (5 Units)
The Senators and the Maple Leafs are led by their offenses, and this game looks to be a high-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Maple Leafs, who average 3.22 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Senators, who average 3.26 goals per game, should run up the score against the Maple Leafs, who have allowed nine goals in the last two games, with Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with effective puck movement as Jake Sanderson shreds the Maple Leafs defense from the point. The Over should cover in a high-scoring game controlled by both offenses.
Take the Over on 5.5 goals.
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