Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction and Picks - December 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC Thursday evening on the NHL ice, and we have a Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction ready to roll for you. Pittsburgh comes in off a 5-1 road win over the Flyers to move to 13-12 on the year. The Bolts enter this contest at 16-10, but they are off a 2-1 loss to the Islanders on the road. Tampa Bay won all three meetings a year ago. Read on to see our Penguins vs Lightning prediction.
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Penguins Rout The Flyers On The Road
The Penguins’ most recent game was a 5–1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers on December 1, where Sidney Crosby scored twice, and Bryan Rust added a goal and two assists. Pittsburgh’s power play was lethal, converting three times, while Tristan Jarry stopped 28 of 29 shots to secure the victory.
That performance underscored how dangerous Pittsburgh’s special teams have been all season. The Penguins rank 2nd in the NHL on the power play at 30.4%, with Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson orchestrating a unit that can change games in an instant. They average 3.1 goals per game (14th) and fire 27 shots per game (19th), with Crosby leading the way at 18 goals and 11 assists. Rust has chipped in 21 points, while Malkin continues to be a steady playmaker with 20 assists. Even though their faceoff numbers sit at 49.8% (17th), the Penguins’ ability to strike quickly on the man advantage makes them one of the league’s most efficient offensive teams.
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Defensively, Pittsburgh has been strong, allowing just 2.8 goals per game (10th) and killing penalties at 84.8% (5th). Jarry has been reliable with a .911 save percentage, and the team has allowed only 28.3 shots per game (19th). Discipline has been decent, with 196 penalty minutes (24th), keeping their PK from being overworked. Against Tampa Bay, the Penguins will lean on their special teams and veteran leadership, hoping Crosby’s hot streak can carry them through against one of the league’s stingiest defenses.
Bolts Fall Short Against The Isles
Tampa Bay’s last game was a 2–1 loss to the New York Islanders on December 2, which snapped their seven‑game winning streak. Bo Horvat and Anthony Duclair scored for New York, while Dominic James netted Tampa’s lone goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 22 saves, but the Lightning went 0‑for‑3 on the power play and couldn’t generate enough offense late.
Despite that setback, the Lightning remain one of the NHL’s most balanced teams. They average 3.3 goals per game (8th), led by Nikita Kucherov’s 32 points (11 goals, 21 assists) and Brandon Hagel’s 15 goals and 12 assists. Tampa doesn’t generate a ton of shots (26.7 per game, 21st) and their power play has been underwhelming at 16.2% (24th), but their depth scoring and ability to finish at even strength have kept them near the top of the Atlantic Division. Faceoffs have been a weakness at 45.7% (30th), but their transition game and speed often make up for lost draws.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been elite, allowing just 2.6 goals per game (3rd) and killing penalties at a league‑best 89.2%. Vasilevskiy has been sharp with a .917 save percentage, and the team limits opponents to 27.4 shots per game (15th). Discipline remains an issue, with 311 penalty minutes (2nd most), but their PK has consistently bailed them out. Against Pittsburgh, the Lightning will look to rebound by leaning on their defensive structure and goaltending, while hoping Kucherov and Hagel can provide the offensive spark to outlast Crosby and company.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick
Penguins vs Lightning Moneyline Pick
- Tampa Bay -1.5 (4 Units)
Tampa Bay -1.5 looks like a strong play given how dominant the Lightning have been defensively and how well they’ve matched up against teams that rely heavily on special teams. Even in their 2–1 loss to the Islanders, Tampa allowed just 23 shots and kept the game tight until the final minutes, showing the kind of structure that has made them one of the league’s toughest teams to crack. On the season, they allow only 2.6 goals per game (3rd) and own the NHL’s best penalty kill at 89.2%, which is a perfect counter to Pittsburgh’s top‑tier power play. With Andrei Vasilevskiy steady in net and Nikita Kucherov driving the offense, Tampa has the balance to control pace and pull away late.
Pittsburgh’s offense has leaned heavily on its power play, but Tampa’s discipline and elite PK make it difficult for the Penguins to find their usual rhythm. The Lightning average 3.3 goals per game (8th), and even though their power play has been underwhelming, their even‑strength scoring depth with Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Steven Stamkos gives them multiple ways to attack. The Penguins allow just 2.8 goals per game (10th), but Tampa’s ability to generate pressure and finish chances has been consistent, especially at home. If Vasilevskiy holds firm and the Lightning’s top line produces as expected, Tampa Bay has the tools to not only win but cover the puck line at -1.5.
Penguins vs Lightning Over/Under Pick
- Over 6 (4 Units)
The Over 6 makes sense here because both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay bring enough offensive firepower to push this game past the number, even against two strong defensive units. The Penguins average 3.1 goals per game (14th) and own the league’s second‑best power play at 30.4%, while Tampa counters with 3.3 goals per game (8th) and elite finishers like Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel driving their attack. Both teams generate steady shot volume — Pittsburgh at 27 per game and Tampa at 26.7 — and while the Lightning boast the NHL’s top penalty kill (89.2%), their tendency to rack up penalties (311 minutes, 2nd most) still creates opportunities for Crosby and Malkin to cash in. With stars on both sides capable of taking over and each club averaging close to three goals nightly, the Over 6 has the right ingredients to hit.
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