St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday October 13 2026

Ottawa comes into Tuesday's matchup with St. Louis at 5-1-0, an impressive record for a club still operating without two key defensemen. The Blues are 2-2-1, and the afternoon market has these teams priced near even money despite the Senators' stronger results. Ottawa beat New Jersey 4-1 on Monday and is playing for the second straight day. That schedule penalty matters, but it also creates a reasonable price for a home club finding ways to win despite an unsettled blue line.

St. Louis has an intriguing offensive mix. Robert Thomas centers Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud, while Mason McTavish supplies another legitimate scoring center and Pavel Buchnevich remains a finishing threat. Philip Broberg and Colton Parayko help the Blues break the puck out, with Cam Fowler and Brandon Carlo also projected in the defense rotation. The Blues can turn Ottawa's missing defensive talent into a real advantage if Thomas controls possession down low and forces the Senators' inexperienced pairs to make a series of rushed exits.

Ottawa is getting major contributions from Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson, with Dylan Cozens, Shane Pinto and Claude Giroux supporting the offense. The Senators have shown an ability to win close games without overreacting after a conceded goal. Linus Ullmark has also been excellent at five-on-five, leading the league in save percentage in that situation among goalies with at least five games. That matters because Ottawa's defense has been patched together while Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub recover.

The club listed Samuel Ersson ahead of Ullmark in Tuesday's projected crease, which creates a potentially important distinction after Monday's action. Neither a projected lineup nor yesterday's save percentages establish who will start this evening. Sanderson and Zub are not expected back, and Nikolas Matinpalo joined Ottawa's injury list after leaving Monday's game. St. Louis is without Logan Mailloux and Tyler Tucker on defense, with Alexey Toropchenko also injured. The Blues are not the only team missing support players, even if Ottawa's absences are more prominent.

This game is likely to be decided by center depth and defensive-zone faceoffs rather than by a run-and-gun scoring contest. Ottawa has Stutzle and Cozens capable of threatening off the rush, while Thomas and McTavish can keep the puck on the offensive side for St. Louis. The Senators should try to make the Blues defend their own slot with speed. The visitors, conversely, can test Ottawa's third defense pair by cycling until a tired defender loses position. One bad defensive change could decide the entire contest.

The Senators' forward balance is essential because the blue-line injuries make a lead more difficult to protect. Ottawa cannot put all the responsibility on Stutzle's line and then hope its defenders survive twenty minutes of pressure. The middle-six forwards need to forecheck with purpose, force St. Louis to use its less creative defense pairs and create periods when the visitors cannot attack. Conversely, the Blues' best opportunity may come immediately after an Ottawa scoring chance, when the Senators' younger defensemen are stepping up and the opponent can send a quick pass into open space.

Ottawa was a slight -101 favorite in early Tuesday trading and had moved toward -108 in later sportsbook quotes. St. Louis was around -109 to -112 in the corresponding quotes, reflecting an exceptionally tight two-way contest with a standard sportsbook margin. The posted total is 5.5. That is the right environment for a modest favorite wager rather than a high-margin expectation. The Senators' strong results make them appealing at nearly even money, but their back-to-back is a meaningful limit on confidence.

Ottawa's defensive injury list is a real reason this price has not moved much farther. If the Senators run out of clean exit options, Thomas will be able to play much of his shift below the faceoff circles. The Blues also have a goalie tandem capable of keeping the game close. Ottawa needs intelligent risk management and cannot rely on Ullmark's early five-on-five form if he is not the starter. A late goalie announcement could materially change the bet, so the -110 ceiling should be respected.

The Senators have the better opening-season performance and enough center depth to handle St. Louis if they avoid extended defensive-zone breakdowns. Ottawa -110 or better is the selection, with a narrow 3-2 home win the predicted result. The handicap depends on Ottawa's improved finishing and ability to survive a second game in two nights, not on treating the Blues as a weak opponent. At a substantially higher price, that balancing argument becomes much harder to defend.