Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 13, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Tampa Bay Lightning (18-11-2, 38 points, T-1st Atlantic) are on the road Saturday, visiting the New York Islanders (18-11-3, 39 points, 3rd Metro). Tampa Bay defeated the New Jersey Devils 8-4 on Thursday for their second consecutive win following four straight losses. The New York Islanders defeated the Anaheim Ducks 5-2 on Thursday night for their second straight win and fifth win in the last six games. Tampa Bay is tied for first in the Atlantic Division with the Boston Bruins, while New York is third in the Metropolitan Division but just one point behind co-leaders Carolina and Washington. Make sure to read this in-depth Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders prediction. Shoot and score! Don’t miss our free NHL picks for the Tampa Bay Lightning at the New York Islanders prediction.
Tampa Bay is solid on attack and even better at the other end
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 12th in goals for average at 3.1, while 5th in goals against average at 2.5. Tampa Bay is averaging 27.4 (19th) shots per game and allowing an average of 27.1 (11th). Tampa Bay’s power play is 25th, scoring 16.3% of the time the Lightning have the man advantage, while the penalty kill is 1st, holding opponents scoreless 86.5% of the time Tampa Bay is shorthanded.
Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay in goals with 18, while Jake Guentzel is second with 15. Nikita Kucherov is third in goals scored with 13, the leader in assists with 27, and the team-leader in points with 40. Guentzel is second in assists with 17 and second in points with 32. Tampa Bay has scored 17 goals on the power play in 31 games. With No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy on injured reserve, Jonas Johansson will be in goal for the Lightning. Johansson is 7-5-0 with a 2.65 goals against average and a .905 save percentage.
Injuries: Tampa Bay will play without Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Erik Cernak.
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New York is strong on defense
The New York Islanders are 20th in goals for average at 2.9, and 9th in goals against average at 2.8. New York averages 29.1 (11th) shots per game and allows an average of 28.0 (17th). New York's power play is 28th, scoring 15% of the time the Islanders have the man advantage, while the power play is fifth, holding opponents scoreless 84.3% of the time New York is short-handed.
Bo Horvat leads New York in goals with 19, and Emi Heineman is second with 10. Mathew Barzal and Ryan Pulock are the co-leaders in assists with 15 each. Horvat is the leader in points with 31, and Barzal is second with 24. New York has scored 17 goals on the power play in 32 games. Adam Pelech is the leader in plus/minus at 8. Ilya Sorokin is 11-8-2 with a 2.53 GAA and a .910 SV%, while backup David Rittich is 7-3-1 with A 2.59 GAA and a .905 SV%.
Injuries: New York will play without Ethan Bear, Kyle Palmieri, Alexander Romanov, Semyon Varlamov, and Pierre Engvall.
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders Pick
Spread Pick for Lightning vs. Islanders
- Tampa Bay -125 (5 units)
The Tampa Bay Lightning will have backup goalie Jonas Johansson between the pipes, but Johansson has performed well with a 2.65 goals against average and a .905 save percentage. The Lightning have the best penalty-kill unit in hockey, and that allows its skaters to perform at a different level as they are not as worried if they commit a penalty while trying to make a solid play on defense, in front of the goal, or along the boards. Tampa Bay has won nine of its last 13 games, seven of its last nine games played on the road, and 10 of its last 15 games head-to-head versus New York. The Lightning have a 3.1 goals for average, and New York scores an average of just 2.9, while at the same time Tampa Bay has a 2.5 goals against average and New York is slightly higher at 2.8, giving Tampa Bay an advantage at both ends of the ice.
Over/Under Pick for Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders
- Under 5.5 (5 units)
The Tampa Bay Lightning, as mentioned previously, have a 2.5 goals against average, and New York has a 2.8 goals against average. Tampa Bay goalie Johansson has a 2.65 GAA, and New York netminder Sorokin has a 2.53 GAA. The total has finished under in 11 of New York's last 15 games and in six of the Islanders' last seven games against Tampa Bay. The Lightning have had the total finish under in four of the last six games against a team from the Metropolitan Division.
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