Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (7-1-5) 

The 2025-26 NHL betting action continues Tuesday, November 4, with the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Colorado Avalanche in the cross-conference showdown at Ball Arena in Denver, CO, and we’ve got you covered with our Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction.

Tampa Bay meets Colorado for the first time this season. Last season, the Lightning swept their two-game set against the Avalanche. The Bolts beat the Avs 5-2 in Denver and 8-2 in Tampa.

Let’s take a closer look at this Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction, one of our NHL picks for Tuesday’s slate. The puck drop is set at 9:30 PM ET, and the Avalanche are -150 moneyline favorites with a total of 6.5 goals.

The Lightning are hot                                                       

The Tampa Bay Lightning started the season slowly, dropping six of their first seven games and earning four points in that stretch. Since then, the Lightning have won five straight contests, including a couple of 2-1 overtime victories against the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars.

Last Sunday, the Lightning outlasted the Utah Mammoth 4-2 as +100 road underdogs. Jake Guentzel’s fifth goal of the season gave the Bolts a 3-2 lead midway through the third period, while Brandon Hagel’s empty-netter sealed the win.

Jonas Johansson gave up two goals on 27 shots against Utah. He’s now 3-1-0 with a 2.78 GAA and a .916 save percentage in 2024-25. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to guard the cage against Colorado, and the 31-year-old netminder carries a 3-3-2 record with a 2.61 GAA and a .899 save percentage.

The Bolts allow 2.75 goals per game (tied for 7th in the NHL) and score 2.92 goals in return (20th). Their penalty killing has been outstanding thus far (36-for-40, 3rd), but the Lightning have only converted six of their 41 power-play opportunities (27th).

The Avalanche are coming off a disappointing loss                                                     

The Colorado Avalanche started their 2025-26 campaign on a high note, winning five of their first six contests. Since then, it’s been a bumpy road for the Avs, who have gone 2-1-4 in their previous seven outings at any location.

The Avs are coming off Saturday’s 3-2 overtime defeat at the San Jose Sharks. Colorado was a strong -210 fave to beat San Jose. The Avalanche outshot the Sharks 38-23 on the afternoon, but it wasn’t enough.

Mackenzie Blackwood made his season debut in San Jose, allowing three goals on 23 shots. Blackwood just recovered from a lower-body injury, and the 28-year-old goalie should take back the starting job soon. Scott Wedgewood has gone 7-1-2 with a 2.53 GAA and a .900 save percentage so far this season.

Colorado allows 2.54 goals per game (4th in the NHL) and scores 3.62 goals in return (5th). The Avs’ penalty killing has been working well (35-for-39, 4th), but they’ve only scored eight power-play goals on 49 opportunities (23rd).

Lightning vs. Avalanche Pick 

Moneyline Pick for Lightning vs. Avalanche   

• Colorado Avalanche (5 units) 

The Lightning’s defense has improved over the last 10 days, which has helped the team launch a winning streak. Andrei Vasilevskiy has emerged victorious in three straight starts, while Jake Guentzel has amassed three goals and two assists over his last five games.

The Bolts certainly stand a chance of upsetting the odds in this game, but I have to look at the Avs, who are an angry group. Five of Colorado’s six losses have come in overtime, and the Avs just lost at San Jose despite taking 15 more shots than the Sharks.

Colorado’s defense has been solid thus far, and the Avs allow just 25.2 shots per game. On the other side, Tampa Bay allows 28.3 shots per game. The Avs have more depth and quality at the blue line than Tampa Bay, even though Samuel Girard (upper body) is on the IR.

Over/Under Pick for Lightning vs. Avalanche          

• Under 6.5 (5 units) 

Both teams are loaded with talent up front, but I don’t expect to see a ton of goals in this game. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been playing well of late, allowing just four goals over his last three starts. Scott Wedgewood gave up two goals on 23 shots in a 4-2 road victory over the mighty Golden Knights last time out, and the Avs have enough weapons to slow the Lightning’s offense down.

Moreover, the defensive special teams have been terrific thus far, which I already mentioned above. With the line sitting at 6.5 goals, I will take the under.