Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Picks and Predictions For April 24 2026
Use Code WWWC Tampa Bay and Montreal are heading into Game 3 on April 24 with the series knotted at 1-1 after back-to-back one-goal overtime results that have defined just how razor-thin the margin has been between these two clubs. Bettors scanning the night's best NHL picks will find this Lightning vs Canadiens matchup compelling because the top-line talent on both sides, the special-teams battle and the goaltending have all played outsized roles already. With Tampa Bay holding the slight edge in scoring depth and goaltending reliability, and Montreal's defense dealing with a significant injury, this shapes up as another tight game where the total looks more attractive than the puck line.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning -122
- Total Pick: Over 5.5
- Projected Final Score: Lightning 4, Canadiens 3
Odds and Line Movement
The market on this Game 3 matchup has moved toward Tampa Bay as favorites, with the Lightning opening around -135 and tightening to the current -122 number. Montreal has been bet from +114 down to +102, reflecting betting support and confidence that the Canadiens can keep this a close game at home. The total has bounced between 5.5 and 6.5, with the most recent tick sitting at 5.5 and the Under drawing public support at 90 percent, which creates a classic contrarian setup given the scoring rates of both teams during the regular season.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | -135 | Over 6½ +105 |
| Montreal | +114 | Under 6½ -125 |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | -122 | Over 5½ -130 |
| Montreal | +102 | Under 5½ +110 |
Line Movement - Puck Line
| Date | Time | Tampa Bay | Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/21 | 10:56:52PM | -122 | +102 |
| 04/21 | 10:56:38PM | -130 | +110 |
| 04/21 | 10:48:38PM | -135 | +114 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24 | 12:37:36AM | 5½ -130 | 5½ +110 |
| 04/21 | 11:15:52PM | 5½ -135 | 5½ +114 |
| 04/21 | 10:57:07PM | 6½ +114 | 6½ -135 |
| 04/21 | 10:48:38PM | 6½ +105 | 6½ -125 |
Lightning vs Canadiens Key Matchups and Handicap
Lightning
Tampa Bay enters Game 3 as the slightly stronger betting side because of the combination of deeper top-end offense and more reliable goaltending. Nikita Kucherov is the headliner and posted a massive regular season with 130 points, 44 goals and 86 assists, and he has already scored in this series after finding the back of the net in Game 2. That kind of elite production is difficult to contain, and even with Montreal having the home ice and crowd behind them, Kucherov gives the Lightning a game-changing weapon that can decide a tight playoff contest. The Lightning also showed in Game 2 that their scoring is not a one-man operation, with J.J. Moser getting the overtime winner and Brandon Hagel opening the scoring.
On the team-stat side, Tampa Bay averaged 3.49 goals per game during the regular season, narrowly ahead of Montreal's 3.40, while the defensive edge is more meaningful at 2.79 goals allowed per game versus Montreal's 3.06. That difference is exactly the kind of margin that matters in one-goal playoff games, and it ties directly into Andrei Vasilevskiy's performance, as he stopped 25 shots in Game 2 with a .926 save percentage. Vasilevskiy's ability to keep the Lightning in tight games is a core part of why the moneyline is the preferred angle over the puck line in this spot, because Tampa Bay's path to winning does not necessarily involve winning by multiple goals, it involves winning these close, grinding contests by one.
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Canadiens
Montreal has plenty of danger of its own, starting with Nick Suzuki, who had 101 points with 29 goals and 72 assists during the regular season, and continuing through Cole Caufield, who led the Canadiens with 51 goals. That is a top-six group capable of scoring with any team in the league, and the fact that Montreal won Game 1 by a 4-3 score shows how easily this offense can produce three or four goals against the Lightning. The Canadiens also got a power-play goal from Lane Hutson in Game 2, which is an important data point because special teams could decide another close game, and Montreal's blue-line scoring depth has been contributing in ways that extend beyond the top forwards.
The Canadiens' special-teams profile actually tilts the matchup more interesting, with Montreal running the better power play at 23.1 percent but a weaker 78.2 percent penalty kill. Tampa Bay operates at a 20.7 percent power play and a 82.6 percent penalty kill, giving the Lightning the more balanced special-teams picture. In Game 3 at home, Montreal will likely look to draw penalties and lean on its power-play advantage, but the weaker penalty kill is a real concern against a Kucherov-led unit that can take advantage in any zone. Jakub Dobes was also strong in Game 2 with 31 saves and a .912 save percentage, so the Canadiens are getting solid goaltending, but the overall defensive profile leans toward Tampa Bay as a more reliable side over the course of a tight game.
Betting Trends - TB vs MTL
The Over has strong statistical support when looking at the regular-season averages, with Tampa Bay at 3.49 goals per game and Montreal at 3.40, which combines to a natural average of roughly 6.9 total goals per game between these teams. The series has already produced 4-3 and 3-2 overtime results, and while the Game 2 score was slightly lower, both games went past regulation, which raises the total in any competitive playoff series. Public money has been heavy on the Under at 90 percent on the most recent tick, creating contrarian value on the Over given the underlying scoring rates. The puck line is risky in a series where both games have been decided by a single goal in overtime, which is why the moneyline is the cleaner side play rather than laying -1.5 with Tampa Bay.
Key Injuries and Notes - TB vs MTL
Tampa Bay is navigating a meaningful injury list headlined by Victor Hedman on long-term injured reserve, along with Charle-Edouard D'Astous listed as day-to-day and Pontus Holmberg out. Hedman's absence is the biggest single concern in this entire matchup because it weakens the Lightning's blue line, power-play structure and late-game defensive stability, which are all areas that matter enormously in overtime playoff hockey. Montreal has Noah Dobson out, which is also a meaningful absence because Dobson's ability to drive transition play and contribute to the power-play structure is one of the Canadiens' defensive strengths. The combination of Hedman out for Tampa Bay and Dobson out for Montreal suggests both teams are playing with compromised defensive corps, which reinforces the Over lean for Game 3.
Lightning vs Canadiens Moneyline and Total Picks
- Moneyline: Lightning -122 is the preferred play rather than the puck line, supported by Tampa Bay's defensive edge, Vasilevskiy's Game 2 performance at .926, Kucherov's elite production, and the fact that both series games have been decided by a single goal in overtime.
- Total: Over 5.5 is the lean, backed by the combined regular-season scoring rates of roughly 6.9 goals per game, both teams playing with compromised defensive units due to Hedman and Dobson injuries, and contrarian value against 90 percent public money on the Under.
Final Score Prediction
The projected final score is Lightning 4, Canadiens 3. Tampa Bay's combination of top-end talent, goaltending and slightly better defensive profile should be enough to edge Montreal in what projects as another one-goal playoff game. Seven total goals clears the Over 5.5 number, and a one-goal Lightning win cashes the moneyline rather than forcing bettors to lay -1.5 on the puck line in a series that has repeatedly come down to the final minute or overtime, giving the Lightning side and the Over a clean path to cashing together in this Lightning vs Canadiens matchup.
How to Bet Lightning vs Canadiens
For bettors looking to get action on this Lightning vs Canadiens Game 3 matchup, there are several strong options depending on your state and preferred platform. If legal online sportsbooks are not available in your area or you want a free-to-play alternative, social sportsbooks are a solid way to get involved with NHL playoff action through promotional coins and daily rewards that fit well on a tight one-goal playoff matchup like this one. Bettors in legal states looking for competitive moneyline pricing and strong Over markets should consider the bet365 bonus code, which pairs well with a game like this where the Lightning moneyline and Over 5.5 are the featured plays. Another strong option is the fliff promo code, which unlocks bonus coins that can be applied across moneylines, puck lines, totals and player props, giving bettors the flexibility to shop Kucherov and Suzuki point props alongside the primary sides and totals in this Lightning vs Canadiens matchup.
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