Lightning vs. Islanders, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, December 2, 2025
The Tampa Bay Lightning face the New York Islanders, with both teams on opposite ends of the Eastern Conference. The Lightning have a 16-7-2 record and seven wins in a row have them in first place in the Atlantic Division. The Islanders are 13-10-3, and with three losses in a row, they have fallen into sixth place in the Metropolitan Division. Who will win this game? Check out our Lightning vs Islanders prediction!
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Tampa Bay has been great across the board
The Lightning look like the best team in the Eastern Conference with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.36 goals per game, including 30 goals in the last 10 games. Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel have scored 26 goals and 33 assists to lead the top line, while Jake Guentzel and Anthony Cirelli have contributed 23 goals and 21 assists to give the Lightning multiple forward lines to come at opponents.
The offense has stepped up, but the defense has carried them lately, allowing only 2.60 goals per game with only 10 goals in the last seven games. JJ Moser and Emil Martinsen Lilleberg have combined for 3.8 defensive point shares, while forwards Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli have combined for 2.1 defensive point shares to help on the defensive end. In addition, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been remarkable in the net, allowing only seven goals in the last six games.
Key injury report for Lightning
- Brayden Point (undisclosed) has no timetable to return. Has three goals and eight assists.
- Erik Cernak is on injured reserve. Is a key part of the defense.
Islanders have fallen apart on offense
The Islanders have fallen apart lately, with their offense letting them down, scoring only 2.88 goals per game, with only five goals in the last three games. Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat have 22 goals and 22 assists, while defenseman Matthew Schaefer has added eight goals and 11 assists from the point, but the rest of the offense has struggled. Only four active skaters have six goals or more, and opponents can limit the top-heavy offense as a result.
The offense has struggled, but the defense has remained a bright spot, allowing only 2.85 goals per game. Matthew Schaefer and Ryan Pulock have combined for 3.9 defensive point shares, while Scott Mayfield and Adam Pelech have combined for 2.9 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. Additionally, goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been great with a .900 save percentage and a 2.67 goals-against average on 452 shots with 1.6 goals saved above average, and has only allowed seven goals in the last four games.
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Key injury report for Islanders
- Kyle Palmieri (torn ACL) is on injured reserve. Had six goals and 12 assists.
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau (upper body) is expected to miss two to three weeks. Has six goals and six assists.
Lightning vs Islanders Pick
Money Line Pick For Lightning vs Islanders
- Lightning (-130) (4 units)
The Lightning look like the best team in the Eastern Conference, and I see them dominating this game on the road. The Lightning, who have 30 goals in their last 10 games, should pile on the goals with Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence while creating open shots with quick passes. The Lightning, who have allowed only 10 goals in the last seven games, should limit the Islanders' offense with JJ Moser, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to make plenty of big saves. The Lightning should win the game with a strong performance on the road.
Take the Lightning money line as road Favorites.
Over/Under Pick For Lightning vs Islanders
- Under 6 (5 Units)
With two great defenses and exceptional goaltenders, this game looks to be a low-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Islanders, who allow only 2.85 goals per game, should limit the Lightning offense with Matthew Schaefer, Ryan Pulock, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Ilya Sorokin to make plenty of big saves. The Lightning should eliminate an Islanders offense that has scored only five goals in the last three games with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has allowed only seven goals in the last six games, blanking the shots on the net while JJ Moser, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg, and the rest of the defensive unit force turnovers in all three zones. The Under should cover in a low-scoring game with both defenses stepping up.
Take the Under on 6 goals.
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