Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 22, 2025
The Tampa Bay Lightning face the Washington Capitals with both teams looking to improve on great seasons. The Lightning are 11-7-2 and with two wins in a row, they have the second-best record in the Atlantic Division. The Capitals have an 11-8-2 record, and with three wins in a row, they have leaped into a playoff position in the Eastern Conference. Who will win this game? Check out our Lightning vs Capitals prediction!
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Tampa Bay is led by a great defense
The Lightning are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.05 goals per game. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have scored 21 goals and 19 assists to lead the top line, but the rest of the offense has stepped up as well. Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Brayden Point have combined for 17 goals and 21 assists, while defensemen JJ Moser and Darryn Raddysh have added three goals and 11 assists from the point to open up the offense.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has carried them, allowing only 2.85 goals per game with only two goals in their last two games. JJ Moser and Emil Martinsen Lilleberg have combined for 2.3 defensive point shares, while Erik Cernak and Max Crozier have combined for 1.3 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been great with a .907 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average on 396 shots with 4.1 goals saved above average.
Key injury report for Lightning
- Victor Hedman (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve. Has 12 assists and is a key part of their defense.
- Ryan McDonagh (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve. Has three goals and three assists
Capitals are led by a great defense
The Capitals are having a great season with their offense stepping up and scoring 3.24 goals per game, with 15 goals in the last two games. Dylan Strome, Alexander Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson have combined for 26 goals and 34 assists to lead the top two lines, but the rest of the forward unit has stepped up as well. Aleksei Protas, Connor McMichael, and Ryan Leonard have combined for 13 goals and 20 assists, while defensemen John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun have added nine goals and 27 assists from the point to open up the offense.
The offense has stepped up, but the defense has carried them all season, allowing only 2.62 goals per game. Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy have combined for 3.4 defensive point shares, while John Carlson and Rasmus Sandin have combined for 2.3 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Logan Thompson has been incredible with a .920 save percentage and a 2.00 goals-against average on 348 shots with 8.1 goals saved above average.
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Key injury report for Capitals
- No key injuries to report.
Lightning vs Capitals Pick
Money Line Pick For Lightning vs Capitals
- Capitals (-115) (4 units)
The Capitals have three wins in a row and look to take over this game on their home ice. The Capitals, who average 3.24 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Tom Wilson, Alexander Ovechkin, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Capitals should limit the Lightning offense with John Carlson and Jakbo Chychrun creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Logan Thompson to make plenty of big saves. The Capitals should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice.
Take the Capitals money line as home Favorites.
Over/Under Pick For Lightning vs Capitals
- Under 6 (5 Units)
Both teams have great defenses that look to make this game a low-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Lightning, who allow only 2.85 goals per game, should limit the Capitals' offense with JJ Moser, Erik Cernak, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to make plenty of big saves. The Capitals, who allow only 2.62 goals per game, should eliminate the Lightning offense with John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy, and the rest of the defensive unit forcing turnovers in all three zones while goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy blanks the shots on the net. The Under should cover in a low-scoring game with both defenses stepping up.
Take the Under on 6 goals.
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