Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, December 28, 2025
The Toronto Maple Leafs face the Detroit Red Wings with both teams on opposite ends of the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs are 16-15-5 and in last place in the division while the Red Wings are 22-13-3 and sit in first place in the division. Who will win this game? Check out our Maple Leafs vs Red Wings prediction!
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Toronto has been let down by awful defense
The Maple Leafs are having a rough season despite their offense stepping up and scoring 3.19 goals per game. William Nylander and John Tavares have scored 27 goals and 45 assists while Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, and Bobby McMann have combined for 31 goals and 39 assists to add depth to the unit.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.33 goals per game. Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have combined for 3.6 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to carry the puck into the offensive zone while finding open shots on the net. Additionally, with the Maple Leafs playing the second game of a back-to-back, the hope is that Dennis Hildeby steps up as he’s struggled lately, allowing 14 goals in his last three starts.
Key injury report for Maple Leafs
- Anthony Stolarz took a step back in his recovery and is expected to miss more time. Is the starting goaltender for the Maple Leafs.
Red Wings are carried by a great offense.
The Red Wings are having a great season thanks to their offense stepping up and scoring 3.11 goals per game. Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond have scored 51 goals and 66 assists while defenseman Moritz Seider has added six goals and 23 assists from the point to open up the offense.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.16 goals per game. Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson have combined for 5.9 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net. Additionally, goaltender Cam Talbot has struggled in recent starts, allowing 24 goals in his last four.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Key injury report for Red Wings
- No key injuries to report.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Pick
Money Line Pick For Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
- Red Wings (-130) (4 units)
The Red Wings are having a great season and I see them taking over this game from the first period. The Red Wings should create plenty of scoring chances with Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Red Wings should limit the Maple Leafs offense with Cam Talbot bouncing back from four rough losses where he’s allowed 24 goals and blanking the shots on the net while defensemen Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson create turnovers in front of him. The Red Wings should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice.
Take the Red Wings money line as home Favorites.
Over/Under Pick For Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
- Over 6.5 (5 Units)
The teams are led by their offenses, and I see this game being a high-scoring one from the opening puck drop. The Maple Leafs, who average 3.19 goals per game, should pile on the goals with William Nylander, John Tavares, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Red Wings, who average 3.11 goals per game, should run up the score against the Maple Leafs, who allow 3.33 goals per game, with Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with quick passes as Moritz Seider fries shots on the net from the point. The Over should cover in a high-scoring game with both offenses stepping up.
Take the Over on 6.5 goals.
The Maple Leafs head to Detroit to face the Red Wings with both teams looking to improve in the Atlantic Division.
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